Overview

At the end of the first quarter (Q1), total revenue for 2026-27 is forecast at $21.7 billion and total expense is forecast at $22.6 billion, resulting in a projected deficit of $825 million. This is largely unchanged from the 2026-27 Budget, with the forecast deficit $6 million higher than originally projected.

For a more detailed overview, see Table 1.

Revenue

Total revenue at Q1 is forecast to increase by $331 million, or 1.5 per cent, compared to budget.

The increase is primarily attributable to higher Non-Renewable Resources Revenue, which is forecast to increase by $320 million from budget. The improvement is driven by higher-than-budgeted oil prices, as WTI is now forecast to average US$75.00 per barrel in 2026-27, up $15.25 compared to budget.

Other Own-Source Revenue is forecast to increase by $144 million, primarily due to higher revenues from the electricity sector being accrued under the Output-Based Performance Standards Program (OBPS) due to federal industrial carbon pricing requirements.

Partially offsetting these increases, Government Business Enterprise net income is forecast to decrease by $133 million compared to budget, primarily due to lower net income at SGI and the Saskatchewan Auto Fund related to hailstorms claims. SaskPower’s net income is also reported lower-than-budget due to expenses being accrued for federal industrial carbon pricing requirements pending the outcome of ongoing federal-provincial negotiations regarding the future of Saskatchewan’s electricity sector.

For a more detailed review of revenue and resource assumptions, see Tables 3 and 5.

Expense

Total expense at Q1 is forecast to increase $337 million, or 1.5 per cent, compared to budget.

The increase reflects ongoing expenditure pressures across the health system, driven primarily by growing service demand, inflationary costs, and compensation expenses associated with delivering healthcare services to Saskatchewan residents.

Additional expense pressures are forecast in Protection of persons and property, primarily as a result of flood-related response and recovery efforts, as well as in Agriculture, mainly due to higher unseeded acreage Crop Insurance claims resulting from excess moisture in the spring.

For a more detailed overview, see Table 1.

Debt

Total gross debt at Q1 is forecast to be $43.6 billion, an increase of $65 million, or 0.2 per cent, from budget.

The increase is primarily attributable to higher self-supported debt (i.e., Government Business Enterprise debt), largely reflecting additional borrowing requirements at SaskPower due to lower net income.

For a more detailed review of gross debt, see Table 4.

Saskatchewan’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 14.9 per cent at March 31, 2027, an improvement from the budget projection of 16.1 per cent. The lower ratio primarily reflects a stronger GDP outlook than anticipated at budget. Saskatchewan’s net debt-to-GDP ratio remains the second-best among all provinces.

For a review of provincial net debt-to-GDP ratios, see Graph 1.

Economy

Saskatchewan’s economic outlook has been supported by strong construction and an improved commodity outlook since the release of the 2026-27 Budget.

Saskatchewan is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing provincial economies over the next two years, with real GDP growth projected to rank third-best among provinces in 2026 and second-best in 2027.

While global economic conditions and trade developments remain sources of uncertainty, exports have increased by 11.6 per cent year-to-date through June. Economic activity continues to be supported by new major private sector projects, strong construction activity, and global demand for Saskatchewan’s key commodities.

For more figures on the economy, see Table 2.