v3.26.1
Financial risks (Tables)
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2026
Statement [LineItems]  
Summary of Economic Variable Assumptions
15.1 Economic variable assumptions
The most significant
period-end
assumptions used for the ECL estimate are set out below. The scenarios “base”, “upside” and “downside” were used for all portfolios.
 
June 30, 2026
      Scenarios        2027        2028        2029        2030      Units
Interest rates
      Base       4.36       4.42       4.48       4.47      Interest Rates:
10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturities, (% p.a., NSA
1
)
Interest rates
      Upside       4.44       4.42       4.47       4.47      Interest Rates:
10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturities, (% p.a., NSA
1
)
Interest rates
      Downside       3.50       4.00       4.27       4.40      Interest Rates:
10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturities, (% p.a., NSA
1
)
Unemployment rate
      Base       4.66       4.55       4.50       4.57      (%, SA)
Unemployment rate
      Upside       3.78       3.96       3.86       4.02      (%, SA)
Unemployment rate
      Downside       8.40       6.99       5.87       5.04      (%, SA)
House Price Index
      Base       428.56       443.35       458.07       473.14      Existing Single-Family Home Price: Median, (Ths. USD, SA)
House Price Index
      Upside       460.16       476.97       498.41       517.39      Existing Single-Family Home Price: Median, (Ths. USD, SA)
House Price Index
      Downside       366.03       390.94       408.61       421.48      Existing Single-Family Home Price: Median, (Ths. USD, SA)
Domestic GDP
      Base       25,024.30       25,583.91       26,262.97       26,971.68      Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR
2
Domestic GDP
      Upside       25,406.74       26,029.13       26,745.05       27,453.89      Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR
2
Domestic GDP
      Downside       23,846.24       24,371.64       25,277.17       26,086.79      Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR
2
Equity
      Base       6,961.56       7,398.77       8,012.41       8,622.30      Standard & Poor’s (S&P); Moody’s Analytics Forecasted
Equity
      Upside       7,413.18       7,927.83       8,354.24       8,935.02      Standard & Poor’s (S&P); Moody’s Analytics Forecasted
Equity
      Downside       4,985.49       5,672.73       6,935.66       7,861.56      Standard & Poor’s (S&P); Moody’s Analytics Forecasted
 
December 31, 2025
      Scenarios        2026        2027        2028        2029      Units
Interest rates
      Base       4.29       4.32       4.33       4.30      Interest Rates:
10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturities, (% p.a., NSA
1
)
Interest rates
      Upside       4.39       4.41       4.33       4.30      Interest Rates:
10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturities, (% p.a., NSA
1
)
Interest rates
      Downside       3.05       3.76       4.02       4.16      Interest Rates:
10-Year
Treasury Constant Maturities, (% p.a., NSA
1
)
Unemployment rate
      Base       4.78       4.59       4.29       4.05      (%, SA)
Unemployment rate
      Upside       3.83       3.94       3.66       3.47      (%, SA)
Unemployment rate
      Downside       8.34       7.60       6.16       4.94      (%, SA)
House Price Index
      Base       429.08       438.87       455.20       471.22      Existing Single-Family Home Price: Median, (Ths. USD, SA)
House Price Index
      Upside       450.23       472.07       494.28       513.52      Existing Single-Family Home Price: Median, (Ths. USD, SA)
House Price Index
      Downside       362.72       383.66       404.10       420.99      Existing Single-Family Home Price: Median, (Ths. USD, SA)
Domestic GDP
      Base       24,484.94       24,932.78       25,485.10       26,129.71      Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR
2
Domestic GDP
      Upside       24,887.20       25,401.41       26,012.56       26,724.26      Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR
2
Domestic GDP
      Downside       23,372.80       23,689.06       24,425.29       25,270.54      Bil. Ch. 2012 USD, SAAR
2
Equity
      Base       6,363.30       6,460.73       6,953.76       7,485.28      Standard & Poor’s (S&P); Moody’s Analytics Forecasted
Equity
      Upside       6,831.53       6,904.30       7,343.79       7,756.76      Standard & Poor’s (S&P); Moody’s Analytics Forecasted
Equity
      Downside       4,423.87       4,764.13       5,780.16       6,786.08      Standard & Poor’s (S&P); Moody’s Analytics Forecasted
 
1
 
NSA: Not seasonally adjusted.
2
 
SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Summary of Weighted Assigned to Each Economic Scenario
The weightings assigned to each economic scenario
were
as follows:
 
Weightings
      Base          Upside          Downside  
On June 30, 2026
      40        30        30  
On December 31, 2025
      40        30        30  
Summary of Reconciliation of Changes in Loss Allowance
     Gross amount               ECL          
Debt securities
      Stage 1       Stage 2       Stage 3    
 
Total
 
     Stage 1       Stage 2       Stage 3    
1H 2026
     
(12-month

ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL) ¹		  
 		  
 
gross
amount
 
 
    
(12-month

ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL) ¹		  
 		  
 
Total ECL
 
Opening balance
   
 
46,782
 
  
 
358
 
  
 
306
 
  
 
47,446
 
  
 
(188
) 
  
 
(27
) 
  
 
(131
) 
  
 
(347
) 
Acquisition
      5,100       4       3    
 
5,107
 
     (18 )      (1 )      (1 )   
 
(19
) 
Disposal
      (2,842 )      (43 )      (44 )   
 
(2,928
) 
     10       1       29    
 
40
 
ECL transfer from stage 1 to stage 2
      (194 )      194       -    
 
-
 
     1       (1 )      -    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 2 to stage 1
      12       (12 )      -    
 
-
 
     (1 )      1       -    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 2 to stage 3
      -       (5 )      5    
 
-
 
     -       6       (6 )   
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 3 to stage 2
      -       14       (14 )   
 
-
 
     -       (7 )      7    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 3 to stage 1
      13       -       (13 )   
 
-
 
     (2 )      -       2    
 
-
 
Impact on
year-end
ECL
      -       -       -    
 
-
 
     3       (5 )      (2 )   
 
(4
) 
Amortizations through income statement
      70       1       20    
 
91
 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Unrealized gains/losses through equity
      (659 )      (3 )      3    
 
(659
) 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Movements related to fair value hedges
      (1 )      -       -    
 
(1
) 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Change in models
      -       -       -    
 
-
 
     45       (3 )      4    
 
46
 
Other movements
      (1 )      -       -    
 
(1
) 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Transfer to/from other headings
      (60 )      -       -    
 
(60
) 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Net exchange differences
      1,312       13       8    
 
1,332
 
     (4 )      (1 )      (3 )   
 
(8
) 
Closing balance
   
 
49,532
 
  
 
522
 
  
 
274
 
  
 
50,328
 
  
 
(154
) 
  
 
(38
) 
  
 
(100
) 
  
 
(292
) 
 
1
 
Including purchased credit impaired.
 
 
 
 
     Gross amount               ECL          
Debt securities
      Stage 1       Stage 2       Stage 3    
 
Total
 
     Stage 1       Stage 2       Stage 3    
FY 2025
     
(12-month

ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL) ¹		  
 		  
 
gross
amount
 
 
    
(12-month

ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL)		  
 		     (Lifetime
ECL) ¹		  
 		  
 
Total ECL
 
Opening balance
   
 
51,529
 
  
 
335
 
  
 
383
 
  
 
52,247
 
  
 
(187
) 
  
 
(41
) 
  
 
(112
) 
  
 
(341
) 
Acquisition
      8,632       4       27    
 
8,663
 
     (29 )      -       (14 )   
 
(43
) 
Disposal
      (8,729 )      (146 )      (88 )   
 
(8,963
) 
     30       15       28    
 
73
 
ECL transfer from stage 1 to stage 2
      (269 )      269       -    
 
-
 
     2       (2 )      -    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 1 to stage 3
      (12 )      -       12    
 
-
 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 2 to stage 1
      24       (24 )      -    
 
-
 
     (1 )      1       -    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 2 to stage 3
      -       (36 )      36    
 
-
 
     -       4       (4 )   
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 3 to stage 2
      -       1       (1 )   
 
-
 
     -       (1 )      1    
 
-
 
ECL transfer from stage 3 to stage 1
      12       -       (12 )   
 
-
 
     (9 )      -       9    
 
-
 
Impact on
year-end
ECL
      -       -       -    
 
-
 
     9       (10 )      (51 )   
 
(52
) 
Amortizations through income statement
      115       1       46    
 
162
 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Unrealized gains/losses through equity
      1,528       18       (58 )   
 
1,488
 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Change in models
      -       -       -    
 
-
 
     (26 )      3       (1 )   
 
(24
) 
Other movements
      7       (23 )      14    
 
(2
) 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Transfer to/from other headings
      (21 )      -       (7 )   
 
(28
) 
     -       -       -    
 
-
 
Net exchange differences
      (6,035 )      (42 )      (44 )   
 
(6,120
) 
     23       5       14    
 
42
 
Closing balance
   
 
46,782
 
  
 
358
 
  
 
306
 
  
 
47,446
 
  
 
(188
) 
  
 
(27
) 
  
 
(131
) 
  
 
(347
) 
 
1
Including purchased credit impaired.