Fair Value of Financial Instruments (Tables) |
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| Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair Value of Financial Instruments | The following tables set forth the fair value of the Company’s financial instruments (Level 3 in the fair value hierarchy) (in millions):
(1) Fair value was determined by applying a Monte Carlo simulation method for the calculation of the potential payment and the Geometric Brownian Motion forecasting model to estimate the underlying revenue. Market based inputs and other Level 3 inputs were used to forecast future revenue. The key inputs used included a risk-free rate of 4.27%, dividend yield of 0%, volatility of 43.0%, period of 7 years and credit risk of 12.5%. (2) Fair value was determined by applying a discounted cash flow analysis with a hypothetical yield of 9.5%. A change in yield of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $93.0 million and $118.1 million, respectively. (3) Fair value was determined by applying a discounted cash flow analysis with a hypothetical yield of 10.5%. A change in yield of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $85.1 million and $101.5 million, respectively. (4)
Fair value was determined to be $28.9 million for Milestone 1 using a probability weighted expected return methodology based on the Company's estimate of probability of achievement of regulatory approval which was 95% across various timepoints and a discount rate of 11.7%. A change in estimate of probability and discount rate for Milestone 1 of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $28.0 million and $29.8 million, respectively. Fair value was determined to be $5.1 million for Milestone 2 using a Monte Carlo simulation method based on a 56.7% volatility and 11.7% discount rate. Market based inputs and other Level 3 inputs were used to forecast future revenue. A change in discount rate on Milestone 2 of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $5.1 million and $5.2 million, respectively.
(1) Fair value was determined by applying a discounted cash flow analysis to the straight note with a hypothetical yield of 5.0%, volatility of 40.3% and a Monte Carlo simulation for the value of the conversion feature. A change in yield of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $39.0 million and $39.5 million, respectively. (2) Fair value was determined by applying a Monte Carlo simulation method for the calculation of the potential payment and the Geometric Brownian Motion forecasting model to estimate the underlying revenue. Market based inputs and other Level 3 inputs were used to forecast future revenue. The key inputs used included a risk-free rate of 3.94%, dividend yield of 0%, volatility of 43.0%, period of 7 years and credit risk of 10%. (3) Fair value was determined by applying a discounted cash flow analysis with a hypothetical yield of 7.0%. A change in yield of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $106.7 million and $140.6 million, respectively. (4) Fair value was determined by applying a discounted cash flow analysis with a hypothetical yield of 8.0%. A change in yield of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $148.3 million and $192.3 million, respectively. (5)
Fair value was determined to be $23.7 million for Milestone 1 using a probability weighted expected return methodology based on the Company's estimate of probability of achievement of regulatory approval which was 85% across various timepoints and a discount rate of 10%. A change in estimate of probability and discount rate for Milestone 1 of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $24.7 million and $22.7 million, respectively. Fair value was determined to be $2.6 million for Milestone 2 using a Monte Carlo simulation method based on a 25.2% volatility and 10% discount rate. Market based inputs and other Level 3 inputs were used to forecast future revenue. A change in discount rate on Milestone 2 of + or – 2% would result in a fair value of $2.6 million and $2.7 million, respectively. |
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