Report of the directors financial review risk report - The Downside scenarios (Details)
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6 Months Ended |
12 Months Ended |
Jun. 30, 2026 |
Dec. 31, 2025 |
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.50%)
|
(0.20%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.60%
|
6.20%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(4.40%)
|
(4.10%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.40%
|
1.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.40%
|
2.20%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.60%)
|
(0.80%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
5.30%
|
5.30%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(3.10%)
|
(3.10%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.70%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.20%
|
4.60%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2026 |
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|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(2.60%)
|
(1.70%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
4.70%
|
4.80%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.10%
|
(3.80%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
2.70%
|
0.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.60%
|
5.00%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Chinese mainland | 2026 |
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|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(1.90%)
|
(1.70%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Chinese mainland | 2027 |
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|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.70%
|
6.80%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.20%)
|
(5.60%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
2.50%
|
(2.90%)
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
3.40%
|
1.50%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.60%)
|
(0.40%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
8.80%
|
8.60%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.20%
|
0.70%
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
3.10%
|
0.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
2.90%
|
0.60%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2026 |
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|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(1.50%)
|
0.40%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2027 |
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|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
3.00%
|
3.20%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.60%)
|
(3.40%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
3.40%
|
0.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.20%
|
4.60%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2026 |
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|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(1.00%)
|
(1.00%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
3.40%
|
3.80%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.50%
|
0.60%
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
5.90%
|
4.70%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
9.30%
|
9.50%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(8.40%)
|
(5.30%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
10.10%
|
8.90%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(34.00%)
|
(24.20%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
6.60%
|
(1.90%)
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.70%
|
1.40%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(5.50%)
|
(4.50%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
10.60%
|
9.00%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(17.40%)
|
(17.10%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
5.20%
|
4.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.50%
|
4.70%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(9.90%)
|
(9.30%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
7.00%
|
7.00%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(11.60%)
|
(19.60%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
3.70%
|
(1.70%)
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.80%
|
5.00%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Chinese mainland | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(9.30%)
|
(6.00%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Chinese mainland | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.90%
|
7.00%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(25.30%)
|
(23.10%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
2.70%
|
(6.50%)
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
3.50%
|
1.20%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(8.00%)
|
(6.20%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
10.50%
|
10.70%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(11.30%)
|
(5.90%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.20%
|
(0.60%)
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
3.10%
|
0.10%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(10.40%)
|
(5.70%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
4.60%
|
3.90%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(46.90%)
|
(30.50%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
3.90%
|
0.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
4.50%
|
4.70%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(10.40%)
|
(10.00%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2027 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
5.20%
|
5.20%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.50%
|
0.60%
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
5.80%
|
4.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
9.50%
|
9.90%
|