Report of the directors financial review risk report - The consensus Central scenario (Details) - Consensus Central scenario allowance for ECL
|
6 Months Ended |
12 Months Ended |
Jun. 30, 2026 |
Dec. 31, 2025 |
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
2.70%
|
|
| Forecast period |
5 years
|
|
| UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
1.40%
|
1.40%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
4.90%
|
4.70%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
2.10%
|
2.50%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
2.30%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
4.20%
|
3.60%
|
| US |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
4.20%
|
4.20%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
2.50%
|
2.40%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
2.40%
|
2.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
3.90%
|
3.30%
|
| Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
2.40%
|
2.30%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
3.20%
|
3.20%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
4.20%
|
1.80%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
4.30%
|
3.70%
|
| Chinese mainland |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
4.20%
|
4.00%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
5.10%
|
5.10%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
1.40%
|
1.90%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
1.40%
|
1.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
3.20%
|
3.10%
|
| France |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
1.10%
|
1.20%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
7.60%
|
7.50%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
3.30%
|
3.70%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
2.70%
|
2.20%
|
| UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
4.00%
|
3.90%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
2.10%
|
2.40%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
1.40%
|
3.10%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
3.90%
|
3.40%
|
| Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP growth rate, 5 year average |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate, 5 year average |
3.00%
|
3.20%
|
| House price growth, 5 year average |
4.40%
|
4.40%
|
| Inflation rate, 5 year average |
3.60%
|
3.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate, 5 year average |
8.20%
|
7.50%
|
| 2026 | UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.80%
|
1.10%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.30%
|
4.90%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.70%
|
1.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.20%
|
2.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.50%
|
| 2026 | US |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
1.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.40%
|
4.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.70%
|
1.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.40%
|
2.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.70%
|
3.40%
|
| 2026 | Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.90%
|
2.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.60%
|
3.60%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
8.10%
|
0.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
1.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.10%
|
3.80%
|
| 2026 | Chinese mainland |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.70%
|
4.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.20%
|
5.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
(5.10%)
|
(1.60%)
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.00%
|
0.70%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.00%
|
3.00%
|
| 2026 | France |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.70%
|
0.90%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.90%
|
7.60%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.70%
|
4.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
1.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.30%
|
1.90%
|
| 2026 | UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
(0.70%)
|
4.70%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.50%
|
2.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
5.80%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.90%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.70%
|
3.50%
|
| 2026 | Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.80%
|
3.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
6.60%
|
4.80%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.00%
|
3.70%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
6.80%
|
7.00%
|
| 2027 | UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.20%
|
4.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.60%
|
2.80%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.50%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.30%
|
3.40%
|
| 2027 | US |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.40%
|
4.30%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.70%
|
1.90%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
2.30%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.10%
|
| 2027 | Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.60%
|
2.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.40%
|
3.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.20%
|
1.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.80%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.30%
|
3.50%
|
| 2027 | Chinese mainland |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.40%
|
4.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.10%
|
5.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.10%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.10%
|
1.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.10%
|
3.00%
|
| 2027 | France |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.90%
|
1.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.80%
|
7.60%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.40%
|
5.00%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.60%
|
1.70%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.70%
|
2.00%
|
| 2027 | UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
7.20%
|
4.10%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.20%
|
2.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
0.40%
|
3.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.80%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.00%
|
3.10%
|
| 2027 | Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.80%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
3.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.30%
|
4.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.70%
|
3.60%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
7.60%
|
7.20%
|
| 2028 | UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.00%
|
4.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.80%
|
3.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.10%
|
3.50%
|
| 2028 | US |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.20%
|
4.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.50%
|
2.70%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.20%
|
| 2028 | Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
2.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.10%
|
3.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.10%
|
2.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.30%
|
3.60%
|
| 2028 | Chinese mainland |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.20%
|
4.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.10%
|
5.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.50%
|
3.50%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.40%
|
1.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.10%
|
3.10%
|
| 2028 | France |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.60%
|
7.50%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.00%
|
4.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.70%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.60%
|
2.10%
|
| 2028 | UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.90%
|
3.80%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.10%
|
2.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.30%
|
2.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.30%
|
| 2028 | Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
3.20%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.50%
|
4.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.50%
|
3.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
8.30%
|
7.50%
|
| 2029 | UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.80%
|
4.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
2.70%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.10%
|
3.70%
|
| 2029 | US |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.20%
|
4.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.80%
|
3.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.40%
|
| 2029 | Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
3.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.70%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.20%
|
3.80%
|
| 2029 | Chinese mainland |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.10%
|
3.80%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.10%
|
3.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.20%
|
3.10%
|
| 2029 | France |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.50%
|
7.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.10%
|
3.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.70%
|
2.30%
|
| 2029 | UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.70%
|
3.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.10%
|
2.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.40%
|
| 2029 | Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
3.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.30%
|
4.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.40%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
8.60%
|
7.70%
|
| 2030 | UK |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.50%
|
1.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.60%
|
4.70%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.50%
|
2.40%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.20%
|
3.80%
|
| 2030 | US |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.00%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
4.10%
|
4.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.00%
|
3.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.90%
|
3.60%
|
| 2030 | Hong Kong |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.40%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.90%
|
3.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.30%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.30%
|
3.90%
|
| 2030 | Chinese mainland |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.00%
|
3.80%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
5.00%
|
5.00%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
2.30%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.60%
|
1.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
3.30%
|
3.20%
|
| 2030 | France |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.20%
|
1.30%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
7.40%
|
7.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.40%
|
2.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.90%
|
1.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
2.80%
|
2.50%
|
| 2030 | UAE |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.40%
|
3.50%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
2.00%
|
2.40%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
1.80%
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
4.00%
|
3.60%
|
| 2030 | Mexico |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP (annual average growth rate, %) |
2.20%
|
2.20%
|
| Unemployment rate (%) |
3.00%
|
3.10%
|
| House prices (annual average growth rate, %) |
4.30%
|
4.20%
|
| Inflation (annual average growth rate, %) |
3.50%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (annual average, %) |
8.70%
|
7.90%
|