v3.26.1
Expected credit loss measurement
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2026
Disclosure Of Provision Matrix [Line Items]  
Expected credit loss measurement
Note 8
Expected credit loss measurement
a) Credit loss expense / release
Total net
credit loss
expenses in
the first
six months
of 2026
were USD
197
m, reflecting
USD
74
m net
expenses
related to performing positions and USD
123
m net expenses on credit-impaired positions.
Net expected
credit loss
expenses on
the performing
portfolio were
mainly driven
by post-model
adjustments of
USD
42
m in the corporate lending portfolio, mainly in the Investment
Bank, reflecting current macroeconomic and
geopolitical uncertainty.
Net
credit
loss
expenses
of
USD
123
m
were
recognized
for
credit-impaired
positions
and
included
a
USD
157
m
release following the repayment of a corporate lending exposure, of which
USD
85
m was in Non-core and Legacy
and USD
72
m in the Investment
Bank. The effect of
this release was more
than offset by net credit
loss expenses,
primarily
related
to
a
small
number
of
corporate
counterparties
across
Personal
&
Corporate
Banking,
the
Investment Bank and Non-core and Legacy.
Credit loss expense / (release)
Performing positions
Credit-impaired positions
USD m
Stages 1 and 2
Stage 3
Total
Year-to-date 30.6.26
Global Wealth Management
(9)
22
13
Personal & Corporate Banking
23
128
151
Asset Management
0
0
0
Investment Bank
59
49
108
Non-core and Legacy
0
(75)
(75)
Group Items
1
0
1
Total
74
123
197
Year-to-date 30.6.25
Global Wealth Management
(10)
16
6
Personal & Corporate Banking
14
158
172
Asset Management
0
0
0
Investment Bank
14
76
90
Non-core and Legacy
0
9
9
Group Items
(1)
0
(1)
Total
17
259
275
b) Changes to ECL models, scenarios and scenario weights
Scenarios and scenario weights
The expected
credit loss
(ECL) scenarios,
along with
their related
macroeconomic factors
and market
data, were
reviewed in
light of
the economic
and political
conditions prevailing
in the
first half
of 2026
through a
series of
governance meetings,
with input
and feedback
from UBS
AG’s Risk
and Finance
experts across
the business
divisions
and regions.
UBS AG kept
the scenarios and
scenario weights in
line with those applied
in the UBS
AG’s Annual Report 2025.
All
of
the
scenarios
have
been
updated
based
on
the
latest
macroeconomic
forecasts
as
of
30 June
2026.
The
current scenario suite,
together with the
applied scenario weightings
and the level
of post-model
adjustments, is
deemed
appropriate
to
sufficiently
capture
prevailing
macroeconomic
and
geopolitical
uncertainties.
The
assumptions on a calendar-year basis are included in the table below.
The baseline
scenario was
updated with
the latest
macroeconomic forecasts
as of
30 June 2026.
Global growth
and inflation
forecasts have
been adjusted
to reflect
higher energy
prices and
related uncertainty.
However,
the
boom in
AI has
been providing
a meaningful
offset. In
the US,
growth is
expected to
be relatively
resilient, and
inflation is expected
to peak in
the second half
of 2026, reflecting
the lasting effects
of the conflict-related
pressure
in the supply chain. In the Eurozone, the outlook
is more challenging, with Germany and Italy particularly exposed.
Swiss GDP outlook is below trend, affected by the negative spillovers from the Eurozone.
Compared
with
the
January
2026
baseline,
US
GDP
growth
projections
for
2026
and
2027
have
been
revised
slightly upward. Stronger-than-expected economic performance in the beginning of
the year more than offset the
negative effects
of higher
energy
prices. In
the Eurozone
the Iran
conflict has
contributed to
lower growth
and
higher inflation, and in Switzerland GDP growth is also slightly weaker and inflation slightly higher in 2026 than in
the January baseline.
Equity forecasts for
2026 have been
revised upward across
developed economies. The
revision
for European stocks
reflects the improved
earnings outlook at
the beginning of
2026, while US
stocks have been
supported by strong
technology-sector results. Oil
price forecasts for
2026 and 2027
have been adjusted
upward
in 2026 and 2027 to reflect the situation in Iran.
The
downside
scenario
set
is
unchanged,
with
global
trade
war
remaining
the
binding
scenario
and
moderate
stagflation
crisis
the secondary
downside scenario.
While
the underlying
narratives
remain unchanged,
brent
oil
price assumptions
for 2026
and 2027
were recalibrated
to reflect
recent geopolitical
developments and
the ongoing
conflicts in the Middle East, resulting in a higher energy price profile.
Comparison of shock factors
Baseline
Key parameters
2025
2026
2027
Real GDP growth (annual percentage change)
US
2.1
2.2
2.1
Eurozone
1.5
0.8
1.2
Switzerland
1.4
1.1
1.1
Unemployment rate (%, annual average)
US
4.2
4.5
4.5
Eurozone
6.3
6.4
6.3
Switzerland
2.8
3.1
3.0
Fixed income: 10-year government bonds (%, Q4)
USD
4.2
4.5
4.5
EUR
2.9
2.9
3.0
CHF
0.3
0.3
0.4
Real estate (annual percentage change, Q4)
US
1.3
2.0
3.1
Eurozone
5.0
3.8
4.1
Switzerland
3.8
2.5
2.0
Economic scenarios and weights applied
Assigned weights in %
ECL scenario
30.6.26
31.12.25
30.6.25
Asset price appreciation
5.0
5.0
5.0
Baseline
50.0
50.0
50.0
Moderate stagflation crisis
30.0
30.0
0.0
Global trade war
15.0
15.0
0.0
Mild stagflation crisis
0.0
0.0
30.0
Global crisis
0.0
0.0
15.0
c) ECL-relevant balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions including ECL allowances and provisions
The following tables provide
information about financial instruments
and certain non-financial instruments
that are
subject
to
ECL
requirements.
For
amortized-cost
instruments,
the
carrying
amount
represents
the
maximum
exposure to credit
risk, taking into
account the allowance
for credit losses.
Financial assets measured
at fair value
through other comprehensive income (FVOCI) are
also subject to ECL; however, unlike amortized-cost
instruments,
the allowance for
credit losses for
FVOCI instruments does
not reduce the
carrying amount of
these financial assets.
Instead, the carrying
amount of financial
assets measured at
FVOCI represents the
maximum exposure to
credit risk.
No purchased credit-impaired financial assets were
recognized in the first half of 2026.
Originated credit-impaired
financial assets were not material and are not presented in the table below.
In addition to recognized financial assets,
certain off-balance sheet financial instruments and
other credit lines are
also subject to
ECL. The maximum
exposure to credit
risk for off-balance
sheet financial instruments
is calculated
based on notional amounts.
ECL-relevant balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions
USD m
30.6.26
Carrying amount
1
ECL allowances
Financial instruments measured at amortized cost
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Cash and balances at central banks
215,716
215,693
23
0
(271)
0
(271)
0
Amounts due from banks
20,514
20,346
163
5
(3)
0
(3)
0
Receivables from securities financing transactions measured at amortized cost
83,553
83,553
0
0
(1)
(1)
0
0
Cash collateral receivables on derivative instruments
51,314
51,314
0
0
0
0
0
0
Loans and advances to customers
667,391
634,006
28,591
4,794
(3,162)
(365)
(286)
(2,511)
of which: Private clients with mortgages
288,702
274,962
12,069
1,671
(148)
(41)
(23)
(84)
of which: Real estate financing
94,239
86,428
7,396
415
(89)
(26)
(26)
(37)
of which: Large corporate clients
26,637
23,250
2,845
543
(767)
(104)
(101)
(562)
of which: SME clients
23,739
19,718
2,623
1,399
(1,445)
(92)
(86)
(1,267)
of which: Lombard
165,990
165,623
0
368
(74)
(5)
0
(69)
of which: Credit cards
2,535
1,934
550
51
(53)
(7)
(13)
(33)
of which: Commodity trade finance
5,498
4,726
772
0
(141)
(9)
0
(131)
of which: Ship / aircraft financing
9,097
8,145
883
69
(11)
(7)
(4)
0
of which: Consumer financing
2,988
2,760
121
106
(171)
(29)
(25)
(118)
Other financial assets measured at amortized cost
72,437
71,241
927
269
(138)
(31)
(15)
(91)
of which: Loans to financial advisors
2,947
2,806
48
93
(35)
(4)
(1)
(31)
Total financial assets measured at amortized cost
1,110,926
1,076,152
29,705
5,068
(3,576)
(398)
(576)
(2,603)
Financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income
14,517
14,517
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total on-balance sheet financial assets in scope of ECL requirements
1,125,443
1,090,669
29,705
5,068
(3,576)
(398)
(576)
(2,603)
Notional exposure
ECL provisions
Off-balance sheet (in scope of ECL)
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Guarantees
44,497
41,980
2,348
168
(76)
(16)
(24)
(37)
of which: Large corporate clients
7,140
5,645
1,460
35
(21)
(8)
(7)
(6)
of which: SME clients
3,513
3,034
392
88
(41)
(4)
(15)
(22)
of which: Financial intermediaries and hedge funds
26,498
26,224
254
21
(1)
(1)
0
0
of which: Lombard
3,316
3,291
0
25
(2)
0
0
(2)
of which: Commodity trade finance
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
Irrevocable loan commitments
86,509
82,219
3,843
447
(293)
(119)
(83)
(91)
of which: Large corporate clients
48,757
45,152
3,269
336
(264)
(98)
(80)
(85)
Forward starting reverse repurchase and securities borrowing agreements
9,806
9,806
0
0
0
0
0
0
Committed unconditionally revocable credit lines
57,746
53,883
3,739
124
(68)
(53)
(14)
0
of which: Real estate financing
6,733
5,461
1,272
0
(4)
(5)
1
0
of which: Large corporate clients
9,650
8,824
824
1
(13)
(8)
(4)
0
of which: SME clients
10,791
10,181
498
112
(33)
(25)
(7)
0
of which: Lombard
2
2,146
2,146
0
0
0
0
0
0
of which: Credit cards
12,800
12,158
638
3
(9)
(7)
(2)
0
Irrevocable committed prolongation of existing loans
8,620
8,603
15
2
(6)
(5)
(1)
0
Total off-balance sheet financial instruments and other credit lines
207,178
196,491
9,946
741
(443)
(192)
(122)
(128)
Total allowances and provisions
(4,019)
(590)
(698)
(2,731)
1 The carrying amount of financial assets measured at amortized cost represents the total gross exposure net of the respective
ECL allowances.
2 Committed unconditionally revocable credit lines decreased by
USD
65.2
bn, primarily in Global Wealth Management and mainly driven by certain Lombard facilities becoming uncommitted either following changes
to certain contractual terms in the course of client account
migrations or by a refinement of UBS’s definition of a commitment.
ECL-relevant balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions
USD m
31.12.25
Carrying amount
1
ECL allowances
Financial instruments measured at amortized cost
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Cash and balances at central banks
209,858
209,606
252
0
(262)
0
(262)
0
Amounts due from banks
19,243
19,119
124
0
(14)
(9)
(5)
0
Receivables from securities financing transactions measured at amortized cost
83,656
83,656
0
0
(1)
(1)
0
0
Cash collateral receivables on derivative instruments
41,552
41,552
0
0
0
0
0
0
Loans and advances to customers
658,760
628,914
25,287
4,559
(3,236)
(352)
(271)
(2,613)
of which: Private clients with mortgages
288,259
277,176
9,635
1,448
(134)
(44)
(18)
(72)
of which: Real estate financing
93,076
87,650
5,307
119
(68)
(26)
(30)
(12)
of which: Large corporate clients
26,963
23,146
2,890
928
(1,009)
(117)
(94)
(798)
of which: SME clients
23,941
19,984
2,551
1,406
(1,305)
(80)
(81)
(1,144)
of which: Lombard
165,336
164,890
169
276
(130)
(6)
0
(124)
of which: Credit cards
2,408
1,860
501
47
(48)
(7)
(12)
(29)
of which: Commodity trade finance
4,849
3,570
1,274
6
(136)
(8)
0
(128)
of which: Ship / aircraft financing
8,753
7,609
1,025
119
(17)
(9)
(8)
0
of which: Consumer financing
2,957
2,699
130
129
(167)
(19)
(24)
(123)
Other financial assets measured at amortized cost
72,025
70,552
1,247
225
(122)
(29)
(9)
(84)
of which: Loans to financial advisors
2,716
2,567
53
95
(34)
(3)
(1)
(30)
Total financial assets measured at amortized cost
1,085,094
1,053,400
26,911
4,784
(3,635)
(392)
(546)
(2,697)
Financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income
13,868
13,868
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total on-balance sheet financial assets in scope of ECL requirements
1,098,962
1,067,267
26,911
4,784
(3,635)
(392)
(546)
(2,697)
Total exposure
ECL provisions
Off-balance sheet (in scope of ECL)
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Guarantees
47,102
45,512
1,448
142
(50)
(15)
(22)
(13)
of which: Large corporate clients
7,388
6,446
916
26
(17)
(7)
(6)
(4)
of which: SME clients
3,134
2,834
228
72
(24)
(5)
(15)
(4)
of which: Financial intermediaries and hedge funds
29,411
29,288
123
0
(1)
(1)
0
0
of which: Lombard
3,537
3,505
1
31
(2)
0
0
(1)
of which: Commodity trade finance
2,252
2,152
100
0
(1)
(1)
0
0
Irrevocable loan commitments
82,122
77,976
3,938
208
(227)
(114)
(77)
(36)
of which: Large corporate clients
50,000
46,556
3,292
153
(184)
(91)
(72)
(20)
Forward starting reverse repurchase and securities borrowing agreements
10,723
10,723
0
0
0
0
0
0
Unconditionally revocable loan commitments
123,107
119,410
3,449
248
(67)
(51)
(16)
0
of which: Real estate financing
6,433
5,291
1,041
101
(3)
(5)
1
0
of which: Large corporate clients
11,393
10,737
650
6
(15)
(7)
(6)
(2)
of which: SME clients
11,814
11,278
418
118
(31)
(24)
(7)
0
of which: Lombard
60,500
60,435
63
1
0
0
0
0
of which: Credit cards
12,943
12,361
578
4
(9)
(7)
(2)
0
Irrevocable committed prolongation of existing loans
8,178
8,141
32
5
(3)
(3)
0
0
Total off-balance sheet financial instruments and other credit lines
271,231
261,761
8,867
603
(347)
(184)
(115)
(49)
Total allowances and provisions
(3,982)
(575)
(661)
(2,746)
1 The carrying amount of financial assets measured at amortized cost represents the total gross exposure net of the respective
ECL allowances.
The table below provides information
about the exposures subject to ECL and the ECL coverage ratio for UBS AG’s
core loan portfolios (i.e.
Loans and advances to customers
and
Loans to financial advisors
) and relevant off-balance
sheet exposures.
Cash and
balances
at central
banks
,
Amounts due
from banks
,
Receivables
from securities
financing
transactions
,
Cash collateral
receivables
on derivative
instruments
and
Financial
assets measured
at fair value
through
other comprehensive
income
are not included
in the table
below, due
to their lower
sensitivity
to ECL.
ECL coverage ratios are
calculated by dividing ECL
allowances and provisions by
the gross carrying amount
of the
corresponding on-balance sheet exposures or by the notional amount of the off-balance sheet exposures.
The overall coverage
ratio for performing
positions increased by
1
basis point to
11
basis points as
of 30 June 2026.
Compared with 31 December 2025, the coverage ratio for performing positions related to real estate lending (on-
balance
sheet)
was
unchanged
at
3
basis
points,
and
the
coverage
ratio
for
performing
positions
related
to
corporate lending (on-balance sheet) increased by
3
basis points to
79
basis points.
Coverage ratios for core loan portfolio
30.6.26
Gross carrying amount (USD m)
ECL coverage (bps)
On-balance sheet
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stages 1&2
Stage 3
Private clients with mortgages
288,850
275,003
12,092
1,755
5
1
19
2
477
Real estate financing
94,327
86,454
7,422
451
9
3
35
6
809
Total real estate lending
383,177
361,457
19,514
2,206
6
2
25
3
545
Large corporate clients
27,537
23,354
2,946
1,238
279
45
344
78
4,542
SME clients
25,184
19,810
2,709
2,666
574
47
317
79
4,753
Total corporate lending
52,722
43,164
5,654
3,903
420
45
331
79
4,686
Lombard
166,064
165,628
0
436
4
0
1,025
0
1,574
Credit cards
2,588
1,941
564
83
204
37
233
81
3,905
Commodity trade finance
5,624
4,736
772
116
250
20
2
17
0
Ship / aircraft financing
9,109
8,152
887
69
12
8
50
12
0
Consumer financing
3,159
2,789
146
224
542
102
1,696
182
5,258
Other loans and advances to customers
48,110
46,504
1,340
267
55
10
56
11
7,924
Loans to financial advisors
2,982
2,809
49
124
118
13
195
16
2,465
Total other lending
237,637
232,559
3,758
1,320
31
5
135
7
4,488
Total
1
673,536
637,180
28,927
7,429
47
6
99
10
3,421
Notional exposure (USD m)
ECL coverage (bps)
Off-balance sheet
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stages 1&2
Stage 3
Private clients with mortgages
15,646
15,348
295
3
4
3
45
4
0
Real estate financing
8,561
7,280
1,282
0
6
12
0
6
0
Total real estate lending
24,207
22,628
1,577
3
5
6
0
5
0
Large corporate clients
65,722
59,797
5,553
372
45
19
164
32
2,460
SME clients
16,914
15,616
998
300
51
23
277
38
747
Total corporate lending
82,636
75,412
6,552
673
46
20
181
33
1,696
Lombard
2
8,329
8,304
0
25
4
1
0
1
875
Credit cards
12,800
12,158
638
3
7
6
36
7
0
Commodity trade finance
1,619
1,619
0
0
0
2
0
3
0
Ship / aircraft financing
1,602
1,562
40
0
6
0
216
6
0
Consumer financing
165
165
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Financial intermediaries and hedge funds
32,659
32,027
611
21
1
1
4
1
0
Other off-balance sheet commitments
33,355
32,810
527
17
10
5
35
5
8,311
Total other lending
90,529
88,645
1,817
66
5
3
29
4
2,113
Total
3
197,372
186,685
9,946
741
22
10
123
16
1,727
Total on- and off-balance sheet
4
870,908
823,865
38,872
8,170
42
7
105
11
3,267
1 Includes Loans and advances to customers and Loans to financial
advisors, which are presented on the balance sheet line Other financial assets measured at
amortized cost.
2 Committed unconditionally revocable
credit lines decreased
by USD
65.2
bn, primarily in
Global Wealth Management
and mainly driven
by certain Lombard
facilities becoming uncommitted
either following changes
to certain contractual
terms in the
course of client account
migrations or by
a refinement of
UBS’s definition
of a commitment.
3 Excludes Forward
starting reverse repurchase
and securities borrowing
agreements.
4 Includes on-balance
sheet
exposure, gross and off-balance sheet exposure (notional) and the related ECL coverage ratio
(bps).
Coverage ratios for core loan portfolio
31.12.25
Gross carrying amount (USD m)
ECL coverage (bps)
On-balance sheet
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stages 1&2
Stage 3
Private clients with mortgages
288,393
277,220
9,653
1,520
5
2
19
2
473
Real estate financing
93,145
87,676
5,337
132
7
3
57
6
936
Total real estate lending
381,538
364,896
14,991
1,651
5
2
32
3
510
Large corporate clients
27,973
23,263
2,984
1,726
361
50
315
80
4,625
SME clients
25,246
20,064
2,632
2,550
517
40
307
71
4,487
Total corporate lending
53,219
43,327
5,616
4,276
435
46
311
76
4,543
Lombard
165,466
164,896
169
401
8
0
0
0
3,107
Credit cards
2,456
1,867
513
76
197
37
234
80
3,867
Commodity trade finance
4,986
3,593
1,274
118
273
22
2
17
10,800
Ship / aircraft financing
8,771
7,618
1,033
119
20
12
77
20
0
Consumer financing
3,124
2,718
154
252
533
69
1,590
151
4,884
Other loans and advances to customers
42,437
40,351
1,809
278
52
9
17
9
6,530
Loans to financial advisors
2,750
2,571
54
125
125
12
141
15
2,431
Total other lending
229,989
223,614
5,006
1,370
33
4
97
6
4,504
Total
1
664,747
631,837
25,612
7,298
49
6
106
10
3,623
Gross exposure (USD m)
ECL coverage (bps)
Off-balance sheet
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Total
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stages 1&2
Stage 3
Private clients with mortgages
13,016
12,757
245
13
3
2
16
3
0
Real estate financing
7,743
6,591
1,051
101
7
13
0
7
0
Total real estate lending
20,758
19,348
1,296
114
4
6
0
4
0
Large corporate clients
68,798
63,753
4,860
184
31
17
173
28
1,403
SME clients
16,511
15,531
732
247
46
23
386
39
468
Total corporate lending
85,308
79,284
5,592
432
34
18
201
30
868
Lombard
65,395
65,298
64
33
2
0
0
0
2,151
Credit cards
12,943
12,361
578
4
7
6
34
7
0
Commodity trade finance
5,490
5,389
101
0
2
2
6
2
0
Ship / aircraft financing
1,968
1,770
198
0
11
2
89
11
0
Consumer financing
153
153
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Financial intermediaries and hedge funds
37,709
37,307
401
0
1
1
5
1
0
Other off-balance sheet commitments
30,782
30,127
635
20
7
5
19
6
2,053
Total other lending
154,441
152,406
1,978
57
3
2
26
2
1,963
Total
2
260,508
251,038
8,867
603
13
7
129
11
806
Total on- and off-balance sheet
3
925,254
882,875
34,479
7,900
39
6
112
10
3,408
1 Includes Loans and advances
to customers and Loans to
financial advisors, which are
presented on the balance sheet
line Other financial assets measured
at amortized cost.
2 Excludes Forward starting
reverse
repurchase and securities borrowing agreements.
3 Includes on-balance sheet exposure, gross and off-balance sheet exposure (notional) and the related
ECL coverage ratio (bps).