v3.26.1
Allowance for expected credit losses (Tables)
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2026
Disclosure of allowance for expected credit losses [Abstract]  
Disclosure of impairment allowances The table below analyses total ECL allowance by portfolio, separately identifying the amounts that have been
modelled, those that have been individually assessed and those arising through the application of judgemental
adjustments.
At 30 June 2026
Modelled
ECL
£m
Individually
assessed
£m
Judgemental
adjustments
£m
Total
ECL
£m
UK mortgages
602
–
67
669
Credit cards
589
–
56
645
Other Retail
909
–
73
982
Commercial Banking
547
370
(56)
861
Other
15
–
–
15
Total
2,662
370
140
3,172
At 31 December 2025
UK mortgages
623
–
108
731
Credit cards
540
–
63
603
Other Retail
916
–
75
991
Commercial Banking
555
355
(22)
888
Other
15
–
–
15
Total
2,649
355
224
3,228
Disclosure of generation of multiple economic assumptions by quarter and by year
At 30 June 2026
2026
%
2027
%
2028
%
2029
%
2030
%
2026
to 2030
average
%
Upside
Gross domestic product growth
1.4
2.4
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.8
Unemployment rate
4.8
3.7
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
House price growth
1.8
4.5
7.7
7.5
6.0
5.5
Commercial real estate price growth
3.3
6.6
3.1
2.0
0.7
3.1
UK Bank Rate
3.85
4.79
5.19
5.46
5.65
4.99
CPI inflation
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.7
3.0
2.7
Base case
Gross domestic product growth
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
Unemployment rate
5.2
5.4
5.0
4.7
4.7
5.0
House price growth
0.9
1.2
2.0
3.4
3.4
2.2
Commercial real estate price growth
(0.3)
0.0
0.9
0.8
0.0
0.3
UK Bank Rate
3.75
3.63
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.58
CPI inflation
3.1
2.4
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.2
Downside
Gross domestic product growth
0.6
(1.2)
0.5
1.4
1.7
0.6
Unemployment rate
5.6
7.5
7.7
7.3
7.0
7.0
House price growth
0.0
(2.4)
(5.4)
(3.2)
(1.3)
(2.5)
Commercial real estate price growth
(3.5)
(8.7)
(3.2)
(2.1)
(2.7)
(4.0)
UK Bank Rate
3.65
2.04
1.04
0.71
0.49
1.59
CPI inflation
3.1
2.3
1.2
0.7
0.6
1.6
Severe downside
Gross domestic product growth
0.1
(3.3)
(0.1)
1.2
1.5
(0.1)
Unemployment rate
6.2
10.1
10.4
9.8
9.3
9.2
House price growth
(1.0)
(5.1)
(12.4)
(9.2)
(6.0)
(6.8)
Commercial real estate price growth
(8.6)
(17.8)
(8.7)
(6.5)
(6.1)
(9.6)
UK Bank Rate
3.49
0.64
0.07
0.02
0.01
0.85
CPI inflation
3.1
2.2
0.6
(0.5)
(1.0)
0.9
Probability-weighted
Gross domestic product growth
0.9
0.4
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.1
Unemployment rate
5.3
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.6
House price growth
0.7
0.5
0.0
1.4
1.8
0.9
Commercial real estate price growth
(1.0)
(2.4)
(0.6)
(0.4)
(1.2)
(1.1)
UK Bank Rate
3.72
3.20
2.93
2.90
2.89
3.13
CPI inflation
3.1
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.6
2.0
At 31 December 2025
2025
%
2026
%
2027
%
2028
%
2029
%
2025
to 2029
average
%
Upside
Gross domestic product growth
1.4
2.0
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
Unemployment rate
4.8
4.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.7
House price growth
0.8
3.5
7.1
6.9
6.0
4.8
Commercial real estate price growth
1.2
7.9
4.9
1.7
0.8
3.2
UK Bank Rate
4.13
3.94
4.59
5.07
5.33
4.61
CPI inflation
3.4
2.6
2.4
2.8
3.1
2.9
Base case
Gross domestic product growth
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.4
Unemployment rate
4.8
5.2
4.8
4.6
4.5
4.8
House price growth
0.8
1.6
1.9
2.2
3.1
1.9
Commercial real estate price growth
1.2
0.6
1.7
0.5
0.2
0.9
UK Bank Rate
4.13
3.44
3.25
3.44
3.50
3.55
CPI inflation
3.4
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.6
Downside
Gross domestic product growth
1.4
(0.3)
(0.5)
1.1
1.6
0.7
Unemployment rate
4.8
6.6
7.5
7.4
7.0
6.7
House price growth
0.8
(0.2)
(4.7)
(5.7)
(2.8)
(2.6)
Commercial real estate price growth
1.2
(7.1)
(4.2)
(2.7)
(2.3)
(3.1)
UK Bank Rate
4.13
2.74
1.09
0.75
0.52
1.85
CPI inflation
3.4
2.6
2.0
1.4
1.0
2.1
Severe downside
Gross domestic product growth
1.4
(1.9)
(1.8)
0.7
1.4
0.0
Unemployment rate
4.8
8.3
10.2
9.9
9.4
8.5
House price growth
0.8
(1.2)
(11.1)
(12.2)
(7.8)
(6.5)
Commercial real estate price growth
1.2
(17.4)
(9.8)
(7.4)
(5.4)
(8.0)
UK Bank Rate
4.13
1.91
0.10
0.03
0.01
1.24
CPI inflation
3.4
2.6
1.7
0.5
(0.4)
1.6
Probability-weighted
Gross domestic product growth
1.4
0.7
0.8
1.3
1.6
1.2
Unemployment rate
4.8
5.6
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.4
House price growth
0.8
1.3
0.2
(0.2)
1.1
0.6
Commercial real estate price growth
1.2
(1.3)
(0.3)
(0.9)
(0.9)
(0.4)
UK Bank Rate
4.13
3.23
2.69
2.78
2.81
3.13
CPI inflation
3.4
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.4
At 30 June 2026
First
quarter
2026
%
Second
quarter
2026
%
Third
quarter
2026
%
Fourth
quarter
2026
%
First
quarter
2027
%
Second
quarter
2027
%
Third
quarter
2027
%
Fourth
quarter
2027
%
Gross domestic product growth
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Unemployment rate
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
House price growth
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.9
0.6
1.2
1.4
1.2
Commercial real estate price growth
0.8
0.3
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.2)
(0.1)
0.0
UK Bank Rate
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.50
3.50
CPI inflation
3.1
2.8
3.0
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.0
1.9
At 31 December 2025
First
quarter
2025
%
Second
quarter
2025
%
Third
quarter
2025
%
Fourth
quarter
2025
%
First
quarter
2026
%
Second
quarter
2026
%
Third
quarter
2026
%
Fourth
quarter
2026
%
Gross domestic product growth
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
Unemployment rate
4.5
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
House price growth
2.9
2.7
1.3
0.8
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
Commercial real estate price growth
2.5
2.6
2.6
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.6
UK Bank Rate
4.50
4.25
4.00
3.75
3.75
3.50
3.25
3.25
CPI inflation
2.8
3.5
3.8
3.7
3.3
2.6
2.2
2.2
Disclosure of movement in expected credit loss allowance Movement in expected credit loss allowance
Opening
ECL at
31 Dec
2025
£m
Write-offs
and other
£m
Income
statement
charge
(credit)
£m
Net ECL
increase
(decrease)
£m
Closing
ECL at
30 Jun
2026
£m
UK mortgages
731
(101)
39
(62)
669
Credit cards
603
(222)
264
42
645
Other Retail
991
(271)
262
(9)
982
Retail
2,325
(594)
565
(29)
2,296
Commercial Banking
888
(78)
51
(27)
861
Other
15
–
–
–
15
Total
3,228
(672)
616
(56)
3,172
Opening
ECL at
31 Dec
2024
£m
Write-offs
and other
£m
Income
statement
charge
(credit)
£m
Net ECL
increase
(decrease)
£m
Closing
ECL at
30 Jun
2025
£m
UK mortgages
852
(10)
(133)
(143)
709
Credit cards
674
(215)
200
(15)
659
Other Retail
950
(215)
275
60
1,010
Retail
2,476
(440)
342
(98)
2,378
Commercial Banking
989
(80)
100
20
1,009
Other
16
(1)
–
(1)
15
Total
3,481
(521)
442
(79)
3,402
Opening
ECL at
30 Jun
2025
£m
Write-offs
and other
£m
Income
statement
charge
(credit)
£m
Net ECL
increase
(decrease)
£m
Closing
ECL at
31 Dec
2025
£m
UK mortgages
709
(51)
73
22
731
Credit cards
659
(177)
121
(56)
603
Other Retail
1,010
(217)
198
(19)
991
Retail
2,378
(445)
392
(53)
2,325
Commercial Banking
1,009
(81)
(40)
(121)
888
Other
15
(1)
1
–
15
Total
3,402
(527)
353
(174)
3,228