v3.26.1
Loans and allowance for credit losses
 6 Months Ended
Apr. 30, 2026
Text Block [Abstract]  
Loans and allowance for credit losses
Note 5
 
Loans and allowance for credit losses
Allowance for credit losses
  
 
For the three months ended
 
 
 
April 30, 2026
 
 
 
 
April 30, 2025
 
(Millions of Canadian dollars)
 
Balance at
beginning
of period
 
 
Provision
for credit
losses
 
 
Net
write-offs
 
 
Exchange
rate and
other
 
 
Balance at
end of
period
 
 
  
 
Balance at
beginning
of period
 
 
Provision
for credit
losses
 
 
Net
write-offs
 
 
Exchange
rate and
other
 
 
Balance at
end of
period
 
Retail
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential mortgages
 
$
845
 
 
$
82
 
 
$
(3
)
 
$
(20
)
 
$
904
 
 
 
$
636
 
 
$
121
 
 
$
(2
) 
 
$
(25
) 
 
$
730
 
Personal
 
 
1,659
 
 
 
162
 
 
 
(207
)
 
 
(7
)
 
 
1,607
 
 
 
 
1,534
 
 
 
288
 
 
 
(178
) 
 
 
(11
) 
 
 
1,633
 
Credit cards
 
 
1,348
 
 
 
253
 
 
 
(250
)
 
 
–
 
 
 
1,351
 
 
 
 
1,264
 
 
 
257
 
 
 
(199
) 
 
 
(2
) 
 
 
1,320
 
Small business
 
 
362
 
 
 
(1
)
 
 
(25
)
 
 
(7
)
 
 
329
 
 
 
 
289
 
 
 
88
 
 
 
(28
) 
 
 
(6
) 
 
 
343
 
Wholesale
 
 
3,538
 
 
 
421
 
 
 
(246
)
 
 
(100
)
 
 
3,613
 
 
 
 
 
3,210
 
 
 
666
 
 
 
(270
) 
 
 
(151
) 
 
 
3,455
 
 
 
$
7,752
 
 
$
917
 
 
$
(731)
  
 
$
(134)
  
 
$
 7,804
 
 
 
 
$
 6,933
 
 
$
 1,420
 
 
$
 (677
) 
 
$
(195
) 
 
$
7,481
 
Presented as:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Allowance for loan losses
 
$
7,401
 
 
 
 
 
$
7,521
 
 
 
$
6,600
 
 
 
 
 
$
7,125
 
Other liabilities – Provisions
 
 
350
 
 
 
 
 
 
282
 
 
 
 
328
 
 
 
 
 
 
353
 
Other components of equity
 
 
1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
 
 
 
 
 
5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
For the six months ended
 
 
 
April 30, 2026
 
 
 
 
April 30, 2025
 
(Millions of Canadian dollars)
 
Balance at
beginning
of period
 
 
Provision
for credit
losses
 
 
Net
write-offs
 
 
Exchange
rate and
other
 
 
Balance at
end of
period
 
 
  
 
Balance at
beginning
of period
 
 
Provision
for credit
losses
 
 
Net
write-offs
 
 
Exchange
rate and
other
 
 
Balance at
end of
period
 
Retail
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential mortgages
 
$
794
 
 
$
159
 
 
$
(6
)
 
$
(43
)
 
$
904
 
 
 
$
572
 
 
$
194
 
 
$
(4
) 
 
$
(32
) 
 
$
730
 
Personal
 
 
1,639
 
 
 
391
 
 
 
(408
)
 
 
(15
)
 
 
1,607
 
 
 
 
1,482
 
 
 
535
 
 
 
(367
) 
 
 
(17
) 
 
 
1,633
 
Credit cards
 
 
1,356
 
 
 
483
 
 
 
(486
)
 
 
(2
)
 
 
1,351
 
 
 
 
1,233
 
 
 
480
 
 
 
(392
) 
 
 
(1
) 
 
 
1,320
 
Small business
 
 
351
 
 
 
42
 
 
 
(52
)
 
 
(12
)
 
 
329
 
 
 
 
272
 
 
 
134
 
 
 
(52
) 
 
 
(11
) 
 
 
343
 
Wholesale
 
 
3,319
 
 
 
938
 
 
 
(413
)
 
 
(231
)
 
 
3,613
 
 
 
 
 
2,793
 
 
 
1,130
 
 
 
(349
) 
 
 
(119
) 
 
 
3,455
 
 
 
$
 7,459
 
 
$
 2,013
 
 
$
 (1,365)
  
 
$
 (303)
  
 
$
7,804
 
 
 
 
$
6,352
 
 
$
2,473
 
 
$
 (1,164
) 
 
$
 (180
) 
 
$
7,481
 
Presented as:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Allowance for loan losses
 
$
7,093
 
 
 
 
 
$
7,521
 
 
 
$
6,037
 
 
 
 
 
$
 7,125
 
Other liabilities – Provisions
 
 
365
 
 
 
 
 
 
282
 
 
 
 
311
 
 
 
 
 
 
353
 
Other components of equity
 
 
1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
 
 
 
 
 
4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
 
The following table reconciles the opening and closing allowance for each major product of loans and commitments as determined by our modelled, scenario-weighted allowance and the application of expert credit judgment as applicable. Reconciling items include the following:
•  
Model changes, as applicable, which generally comprise the impact of significant changes to the quantitative models used to estimate expected credit losses and any staging impacts that may arise.
•  
Transfers between stages, which are presumed to occur before any corresponding remeasurements of the allowance.
•  
Originations, which reflect the allowance related to assets newly recognized during the period, including those assets that were derecognized following a modification of terms.
•  
Maturities, which reflect the allowance related to assets derecognized during the period without a credit loss being incurred, including those assets that were derecognized following a modification of terms.
•  
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures, which comprise the impact of changes in model inputs or assumptions, including changes in forward-looking macroeconomic conditions; partial repayments and additional draws on existing facilities; changes in the measurement following a transfer between stages; and unwinding of the time value discount due to the passage of time in Stage 1 and Stage 2.
 
Allowance for credit losses – Retail and wholesale loans

 
  
 
For the three months ended
 
 
 
April 30, 2026
 
 
 
 
April 30, 2025
 
 
 
Performing
 
 
 
 
Impaired
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Performing
 
 
 
 
Impaired
 
 
 
 
(Millions of Canadian dollars)
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
  
 
Stage 3
 
 
Total
 
 
  
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
  
 
Stage 3
 
 
Total
 
Residential mortgages
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
272
 
  
$
215
 
    
$
358
 
  
$
845
 
     $ 218     $ 158       $ 260     $ 636  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Model changes
  
 
(88
)
 
 
131
 
 
 
 
 
–
 
 
 
43
 
         –       –           –       –  
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
110
 
  
 
(107
)
    
 
(3
)
  
 
–
 
       34       (34 )        –       –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(10
)
  
 
10
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (14 )      18         (4 )      –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(21
)
    
 
22
 
  
 
–
 
       (1 )      (10 )        11       –  
Originations
  
 
14
 
  
 
–
 
 
 
 
–
 
  
 
14
 
       24       –         –       24  
Maturities
  
 
(7
)
  
 
(18
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(25
)
       (5 )      (8 )        –       (13 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(76
)
  
 
99
 
    
 
27
 
  
 
50
 
       4       89         17       110  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
 
 
–
 
    
 
(6
)
  
 
(6
)
       –       –         (5 )      (5 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
 
 
–
 
    
 
3
 
  
 
3
 
       –       –         3       3  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
1
 
  
 
(1
)
      
 
(20
)
  
 
(20
)
         (1 )      (4 )          (20 )      (25 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
215
 
  
$
308
 
      
$
381
 
  
$
904
 
       $ 259     $ 209         $ 262     $ 730  
Personal
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
283
 
  
$
1,134
 
    
$
242
 
  
$
1,659
 
     $ 305     $ 1,009       $ 220     $ 1,534  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Model changes
  
 
84
 
 
 
(138
)
 
 
 
 
–
 
 
 
(54
)
         –       –           –       –  
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
156
 
  
 
(156
)
    
 
–
 
 
 
–
 
       141       (140 )        (1 )      –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(22
)
  
 
22
 
    
 
–
 
 
 
–
 
       (32 )      32         –       –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(35
)
    
 
36
 
  
 
–
 
       (1 )      (40 )        41       –  
Originations
  
 
55
 
  
 
–
 
 
 
 
–
 
  
 
55
 
       25       –         –       25  
Maturities
  
 
(8
)
  
 
(57
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(65
)
       (13 )      (53 )        –       (66 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(208
)
  
 
267
 
    
 
167
 
  
 
226
 
       (122 )      304         147       329  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
 
 
–
 
    
 
(250
)
  
 
(250
)
       –       –         (215 )      (215 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
 
 
–
 
    
 
43
 
  
 
43
 
       –       –         37       37  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
1
 
  
 
(1
)
      
 
(7
)
  
 
(7
)
         1       (2 )          (10 )      (11 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
340
 
  
$
1,036
 
      
$
231
 
  
$
1,607
 
       $ 304     $ 1,110         $ 219     $ 1,633  
Credit cards
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
210
 
  
$
1,138
 
    
$
–
 
  
$
1,348
 
     $ 206     $ 1,058       $ –     $ 1,264  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
143
 
  
 
(143
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       179       (179 )        –       –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(26
)
  
 
26
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (28 )      28         –       –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(148
)
    
 
149
 
  
 
–
 
       –       (146 )        146       –  
Originations
  
 
4
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
4
 
       3       –         –       3  
Maturities
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(12
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(13
)
       (1 )      (15 )        –       (16 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(60
)
  
 
221
 
    
 
101
 
  
 
262
 
       (155 )      373         52       270  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(301
)
  
 
(301
)
       –       –         (246 )      (246 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
51
 
  
 
51
 
       –       –         47       47  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
      
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
         (2 )      (1 )          1       (2 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
269
 
  
$
1,082
 
      
$
–
 
  
$
1,351
 
       $ 202     $ 1,118         $ –     $ 1,320  
Small business
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
101
 
  
$
113
 
    
$
148
 
  
$
362
 
     $ 80     $ 87       $ 122     $ 289  
Provision for credit losses
    

                 
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
20
 
  
 
(20
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       10       (10 )        –       –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(8
)
  
 
8
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (7 )      7         –       –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(6
)
    
 
7
 
  
 
–
 
       (1 )      (3 )        4       –  
Originations
  
 
11
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
11
 
       11       –         –       11  
Maturities
  
 
(8
)
  
 
(11
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(19
)
       (4 )      (6 )        –       (10 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(18
)
  
 
31
 
    
 
(6
)
  
 
7
 
       7       39         41       87  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(31
)
  
 
(31
)
       –       –         (31 )      (31 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
6
 
  
 
6
 
       –       –         3       3  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
–
 
  
 
1
 
      
 
(8
)
  
 
(7
)
         2       –           (8 )      (6 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
97
 
  
$
116
 
      
$
116
 
  
$
329
 
       $ 98     $ 114         $ 131     $ 343  
Wholesale
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
890
 
  
$
1,115
 
    
$
1,533
 
  
$
3,538
 
     $ 835     $ 992       $ 1,383     $ 3,210  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
51
 
  
 
(51
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       44       (43 )        (1 )      –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(31
)
  
 
31
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (43 )      43         –       –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(4
)
  
 
(45
)
    
 
49
 
  
 
–
 
       (4 )      (71 )        75       –  
Originations
  
 
139
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
139
 
       188       –         –       188  
Maturities
  
 
(104
)
  
 
(173
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(277
)
       (117 )      (97 )        –       (214 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(79
)
  
 
288
 
    
 
350
 
  
 
559
 
       59       309         324       692  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(273
)
  
 
(273
)
       –       –         (289 )      (289 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
27
 
  
 
27
 
       –       –         19       19  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
(2
)
  
 
(1
)
      
 
(97
)
  
 
(100
)
         (16 )      (29 )          (106 )      (151 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
 
 
 
860
 
  
$
 
 
1,164
 
      
$
 
 
1,589
 
  
$
 3,613
 
       $   946     $  1,104         $  1,405     $  3,455  
 
  
 
For the six months ended
 
 
 
April 30, 2026
 
 
 
 
April 30, 2025
 
 
 
Performing
 
 
 
 
Impaired
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Performing
 
 
 
 
Impaired
 
 
 
 
(Millions of Canadian dollars)
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
  
 
Stage 3
 
 
Total
 
 
  
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
  
 
Stage 3
 
 
Total
 
Residential mortgages
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
276
 
  
$
204
 
    
$
314
 
  
$
794
 
     $ 215     $ 126       $ 231     $ 572  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Model changes
  
 
(88
)
  
 
131
 
      
 
–
 
  
 
43
 
         –       –           –       –  
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
154
 
  
 
(149
)
    
 
(5
)
  
 
–
 
       59       (59 )        –       –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(22
)
  
 
23
 
    
 
(1
)
  
 
–
 
       (18 )      24         (6 )      –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(4
)
  
 
(34
)
    
 
38
 
  
 
–
 
       (2 )      (24 )        26       –  
Originations
  
 
41
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
41
 
       47       –         –       47  
Maturities
  
 
(15
)
  
 
(27
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(42
)
       (10 )      (14 )        –       (24 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(127
)
  
 
162
 
    
 
82
 
  
 
117
 
       (33 )      158         46       171  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(12
)
  
 
(12
)
       –       –         (9 )      (9 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
6
 
  
 
6
 
       –       –         5       5  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
–
  
 
(2
)
      
 
(41
)
  
 
(43
)
         1       (2 )          (31 )      (32 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
215
 
  
$
308
 
      
$
381
 
  
$
904
 
       $ 259     $ 209         $ 262     $ 730  
Personal
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
291
 
  
$
1,115
 
    
$
233
 
  
$
1,639
 
     $ 305     $ 966       $ 211     $ 1,482  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Model changes
  
 
84
 
  
 
(138
)
      
 
–
 
  
 
(54
)
         –       –           –       –  
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
308
 
  
 
(308
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       285       (284 )        (1 )      –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(43
)
  
 
43
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (53 )      56         (3 )      –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(2
)
  
 
(76
)
    
 
78
 
  
 
–
 
       (2 )      (79 )        81       –  
Originations
  
 
79
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
79
 
       53       –         –       53  
Maturities
  
 
(20
)
  
 
(122
)
    
 
(1
)
  
 
(143
)
       (26 )      (106 )        –       (132 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(357
)
  
 
524
 
    
 
342
 
  
 
509
 
       (258 )      558         314       614  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(493
)
  
 
(493
)
       –       –         (438 )      (438 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
85
 
  
 
85
 
       –       –         71       71  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
–
  
 
(2
)
      
 
(13
)
  
 
(15
)
         –       (1 )          (16 )      (17 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
340
 
  
$
1,036
 
      
$
231
 
  
$
1,607
 
       $ 304     $ 1,110         $ 219     $ 1,633  
Credit cards
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
217
 
  
$
1,139
 
    
$
–
 
  
$
1,356
 
     $ 207     $ 1,026       $ –     $ 1,233  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
312
 
  
 
(312
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       334       (334 )        –       –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(53
)
  
 
53
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (56 )      56         –       –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(312
)
    
 
313
 
  
 
–
 
       (1 )      (283 )        284       –  
Originations
  
 
6
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
6
 
       5       –         –       5  
Maturities
  
 
(2
)
  
 
(26
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(28
)
       (2 )      (27 )        –       (29 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(209
)
  
 
541
 
    
 
173
 
  
 
505
 
       (283 )      680         107       504  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(584
)
  
 
(584
)
       –       –         (480 )      (480 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
98
 
  
 
98
 
       –       –         88       88  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(1
)
      
 
–
 
  
 
(2
)
         (2 )      –           1       (1 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
269
 
  
$
1,082
 
      
$
–
 
  
$
1,351
 
       $ 202     $ 1,118         $ –     $ 1,320  
Small business
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
95
 
  
$
117
 
    
$
139
 
  
$
351
 
     $ 80     $ 86       $ 106     $ 272  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
35
 
  
 
(35
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       23       (23 )        –       –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(13
)
  
 
13
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (11 )      11         –       –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(1
)
  
 
(11
)
    
 
12
 
  
 
–
 
       (1 )      (6 )        7       –  
Originations
  
 
22
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
22
 
       20       –         –       20  
Maturities
  
 
(13
)
  
 
(30
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(43
)
       (10 )      (11 )        –       (21 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(30
)
  
 
60
 
    
 
33
 
  
 
63
 
       (6 )      57         84       135  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(65
)
  
 
(65
)
       –       –         (60 )      (60 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
13
 
  
 
13
 
       –       –         8       8  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
2
 
  
 
2
 
      
 
(16
)
  
 
(12
)
         3       –           (14 )      (11 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
97
 
  
$
116
 
      
$
116
 
  
$
329
 
       $ 98     $ 114         $ 131     $ 343  
Wholesale
                      
Balance at beginning of period
  
$
896
 
  
$
1,123
 
    
$
1,300
 
  
$
3,319
 
     $ 787     $ 1,038       $ 968     $ 2,793  
Provision for credit losses
                      
Transfers to stage 1
  
 
120
 
  
 
(120
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       99       (98 )        (1 )      –  
Transfers to stage 2
  
 
(53
)
  
 
53
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
       (64 )      73         (9 )      –  
Transfers to stage 3
  
 
(6
)
  
 
(125
)
    
 
131
 
  
 
–
 
       (6 )      (206 )        212       –  
Originations
  
 
298
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
–
 
  
 
298
 
       424       –         –       424  
Maturities
  
 
(225
)
  
 
(290
)
    
 
–
 
  
 
(515
)
       (303 )      (197 )        –       (500 ) 
Changes in risk, parameters and exposures
  
 
(157
)
  
 
540
 
    
 
772
 
  
 
1,155
 
       11       499         696       1,206  
Write-offs
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
(460
)
  
 
(460
)
       –       –         (380 )      (380 ) 
Recoveries
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
    
 
47
 
  
 
47
 
       –       –         31       31  
Exchange rate and other
  
 
(13
)
  
 
(17
)
      
 
(201
)
  
 
(231
)
         (2 )      (5 )          (112 )      (119 ) 
Balance at end of period
  
$
 
 
 
860
 
 
$
 
 
1,164
 
 
 
 
$
 
 
1,589
 
 
$
 3,613
 
       $   946     $  1,104         $  1,405     $  3,455  

Key inputs and assumptions
The following provides an update on the key inputs and assumptions used in the measurement of expected credit losses. For further details, refer to Note 2 and Note 5 of our audited 2025 Annual Consolidated Financial Statements.
Our base scenario reflects a stabilizing U.S. trade policy and the impacts of higher energy prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Economic growth in both Canada and the U.S. is expected to remain positive, with gradually declining unemployment rates through calendar 2026 in Canada and rising unemployment rates, peaking in calendar Q3 2026, followed by a return to equilibrium in calendar Q4 2026 in the U.S. Central bank policy rates in Canada and the U.S. are expected to remain unchanged through calendar 2026, followed by rate increases in Canada and rate cuts in the U.S. starting in calendar Q1 2027.
Our downside scenarios include two additional and more severe downside scenarios designed for trade disruptions and the real estate sector. Our downside scenarios reflect the possibility of moderate and escalating macroeconomic shocks beginning in calendar Q3 2026 relative to our base scenario. In these scenarios, conditions are expected to deteriorate from calendar Q2 2026 levels for up to 18 months, followed by a recovery for the remainder of the period. These scenarios assume monetary policy responses that return the economy to a
long-run,
sustainable growth rate within the forecast period.
Our upside scenario reflects slightly stronger economic growth than the base scenario, without prompting a further offsetting monetary policy response as compared to our base scenario, followed by a return to a
long-run
sustainable growth rate within the forecast period.
The following provides additional detail about our calendar quarter forecasts for certain key macroeconomic variables used in the models to estimate the allowance for credit losses:
 
•  
Unemployment rates
– In our base forecast, we expect the Canadian unemployment rate to
decline to
6.5% in calendar Q
2
2026 then
continue to
decline over the short term, before returning to its long run equilibrium towards the latter end of the horizon. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to peak at 4.5% in calendar Q
3
2026, then return to its long run equilibrium level in calendar Q4 2026.
 

  
 
•  
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
– In our base forecast, we expect both Canadian and U.S. GDP to continuously grow in calendar Q
2
2026 and thereafter. GDP in calendar Q4 2026 is expected to be 1.6% above Q4 2025 levels in
 
b
oth
Canada and the U.S.
 

  

•  
Canadian housing price index
– In our base forecast, we expect housing prices to increase by 0.2% over the next 12 months from calendar Q
2
2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.3% for the following 2 to 5 years. The range of annual housing price growth (contraction) in our alternative real estate downside and upside scenarios is (28.0)% to 10.9% over the next 12 months and 4.2% to 9.6% for the following 2 to 5 years. As at October 31, 2025, our base forecast included housing price growth of 0.3% from calendar Q4 2025 for the next 12 months and housing price growth of 3.4% for the following 2 to 5 years.
Credit risk exposure by internal risk rating
The following table presents the gross carrying amount of loans measured at amortized cost, and the full contractual amount of undrawn loan commitments subject to the impairment requirements of IFRS 9
Financial Instruments
. Risk ratings are based on internal ratings used in the measurement of expected credit losses as at the reporting date, as outlined in the internal ratings maps for Wholesale and Retail facilities in the Credit risk section of our 2025 Annual Report.
 
  
 
As at       
 
 
 
April 30, 2026
 
 
 
 
October 31, 2025
 
(Millions of Canadian dollars)
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3 
(1)
 
 
Total
 
 
  
 
Stage 1
 
 
Stage 2
 
 
Stage 3 (1)
 
 
Total
 
Retail
(2)
                  
Loans outstanding – Residential mortgages
                  
Low risk
  
$
405,054
 
  
$
948
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
406,002
 
     $ 386,060     $ 16,495     $ –     $ 402,555  
Medium risk
  
 
18,517
 
  
 
5,139
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
23,656
 
       20,622       2,571       –       23,193  
High risk
  
 
2,842
 
  
 
8,570
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
11,412
 
       2,131       6,532       –       8,663  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
54,729
 
  
 
1,796
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
56,525
 
       54,253       1,940       –       56,193  
Impaired
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
2,131
 
  
 
2,131
 
         –       –       1,681       1,681  
   
 
481,142
 
  
 
16,453
 
  
 
2,131
 
  
 
499,726
 
         463,066       27,538       1,681       492,285  
Items not subject to impairment
(
4
)
                          
 
1,153
 
                                 1,128  
Total
                          
$
500,879
 
                               $ 493,413  
Loans outstanding – Personal
                  
Low risk
  
$
70,192
 
  
$
1,485
 
  
$
    –
 
  
$
71,677
 
     $ 87,536     $ 2,712     $ –     $ 90,248  
Medium risk
  
 
3,799
 
  
 
1,654
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
5,453
 
       4,035       3,768       –       7,803  
High risk
  
 
707
 
  
 
2,510
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
3,217
 
       601       2,583       –       3,184  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
32,630
 
  
 
4,307
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
36,937
 
       12,493       1,180       –       13,673  
Impaired
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
436
 
  
 
436
 
         –       –       437       437  
Total
  
$
107,328
 
  
$
9,956
 
  
$
436
 
  
$
117,720
 
       $ 104,665     $ 10,243     $ 437     $ 115,345  
Loans outstanding – Credit cards
                  
Low risk
  
$
19,633
 
  
$
813
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
20,446
 
     $ 18,279     $ 161     $ –     $ 18,440  
Medium risk
  
 
1,479
 
  
 
1,897
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
3,376
 
       2,123       2,291       –       4,414  
High risk
  
 
87
 
  
 
2,774
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
2,861
 
       70       2,423       –       2,493  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
780
 
  
 
239
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
1,019
 
         1,133       309       –       1,442  
Total
  
$
21,979
 
  
$
5,723
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
27,702
 
       $ 21,605     $ 5,184     $ –     $ 26,789  
Loans outstanding – Small business
                  
Low risk
  
$
11,169
 
  
$
548
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
11,717
 
     $ 10,628     $ 595     $ –     $ 11,223  
Medium risk
  
 
2,454
 
  
 
734
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
3,188
 
       2,550       924       –       3,474  
High risk
  
 
247
 
  
 
1,413
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
1,660
 
       259       1,422       –       1,681  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
10
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
10
 
       8       –       –       8  
Impaired
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
480
 
  
 
480
 
         –       –       411       411  
Total
  
$
13,880
 
  
$
2,695
 
  
$
480
 
  
$
17,055
 
       $ 13,445     $ 2,941     $ 411     $ 16,797  
Undrawn loan commitments – Retail
                  
Low risk
  
$
307,529
 
  
$
139
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
307,668
 
     $ 293,300     $ 3,700     $ –     $ 297,000  
Medium risk
  
 
14,009
 
  
 
226
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
14,235
 
       12,451       427       –       12,878  
High risk
  
 
1,175
 
  
 
1,785
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
2,960
 
       805       758       –       1,563  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
9,123
 
  
 
244
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
9,367
 
         13,964       274       –       14,238  
Total
  
$
331,836
 
  
$
2,394
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
334,230
 
       $ 320,520     $ 5,159     $ –     $ 325,679  
Wholesale – Loans outstanding
                  
Investment grade
  
$
148,514
 
  
$
2,026
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
150,540
 
     $ 130,322     $ 2,117     $ –     $ 132,439  
Non-investment grade
  
 
212,057
 
  
 
26,199
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
238,256
 
       207,239       26,399       –       233,638  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
15,076
 
  
 
577
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
15,653
 
       14,714       503       –       15,217  
Impaired
  
 
–
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
6,743
 
  
 
6,743
 
         –       –       6,153       6,153  
   
 
375,647
 
  
 
28,802
 
  
 
6,743
 
  
 
411,192
 
         352,275       29,019       6,153       387,447  
Items not subject to impairment
(
4
)
                          
 
10,922
 
                                 9,724  
Total
                          
$
422,114
 
                               $ 397,171  
Undrawn loan commitments – Wholesale
                  
Investment grade
  
$
388,395
 
  
$
1,440
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
389,835
 
     $ 393,167     $ 1,593     $ –     $ 394,760  
Non-investment grade
  
 
178,968
 
  
 
14,256
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
193,224
 
       182,223       16,158       –       198,381  
Not rated
(
3
)
  
 
1,651
 
  
 
19
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
1,670
 
         1,407       21       –       1,428  
Total
  
$
569,014
 
  
$
15,715
 
  
$
–
 
  
$
584,729
 
       $  576,797     $  17,772     $  –     $  594,569  
 
(1)
Includes $197 million of purchased or originated credit-impaired loans (October 31, 2025
 – 
$195 million).
(2)
During the second quarter of 2026, we applied changes to our Retail risk rating models, which were applied prospectively and reflected in the April 30, 2026 credit risk exposures. Certain Personal portfolios no longer use internal risk ratings in the measurement of expected credit losses and therefore were presented in Not rated.
(3)
In certain cases where an internal risk rating is not assigned, we use other approved credit risk assessment or rating methodologies, policies and tools to manage our credit
risk
.
(4)
Items not subject to impairment are loans held at FVTPL.

Loans past due but not impaired
(1), (2)
 
       As at  
   
April 30, 2026
         October 31, 2025  
(Millions of Canadian dollars)  
30 to 89 days
    
90 days
and greater
    
Total
          30 to 89 days     90 days
and greater		     Total  
Retail
  
$
2,479
 
  
$
358
 
  
$
2,837
 
     $ 2,634     $ 323     $ 2,957  
Wholesale
  
 
858
 
  
 
–
 
  
 
858
 
         1,143       7       1,150  
   
$
3,337
 
  
$
358
 
  
$
3,695
 
       $  3,777     $  330     $  4,107  
 
(1)   Excludes loans less than 30 days past due as they are not generally representative of the borrowers’ ability to meet their payment obligations.
(2)   Amounts presented may include loans past due as a result of administrative processes, such as mortgage loans on which payments are restrained pending payout due to sale or refinancing. Past due loans arising from administrative processes are not representative of the borrowers’ ability to meet their payment obligations.