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Ce document est disponible en français sous le titre :

Budget de l’Ontario 2026 : Un plan pour protéger l’Ontario

 

      

 

    

A Plan to Protect Ontario

In the midst of tariffs and economic uncertainty, our government is delivering on our plan to protect Ontario and build the most competitive, resilient and self-reliant economy in the G7. Trade tensions, supply chain pressures and shifting market dynamics are sending unpredictable economic shocks through industries and economies everywhere.

Navigating these challenges requires a pragmatic approach — and the government’s prudent fiscal plan is more important than ever.

Our government’s plan to build a more competitive provincial economy includes a multi-year Tax Action Plan, which will attract investment, encourage economic growth and support job creation in the province. We are continuing to accelerate and invest in strategic priorities like energy, critical minerals, strong postsecondary and education sectors, key infrastructure and critical technologies to protect Ontario’s workers, families and businesses.

We are cutting red tape and speeding up permitting for major projects, and Ontario is leading the country in removing interprovincial trade barriers, while also attracting investments to create jobs and drive growth.

Ontario has a strong track record of prudent financial management and continues work to protect the path to balance by 2028–29 by pursuing opportunities to modernize programs, improve efficiencies, reduce red tape and ensure taxpayer dollars are being used responsibly. This work will also ensure that Ontario has the fiscal capacity to protect the province, unleash our economy and safeguard public-facing services.

Protect Workers and Businesses from Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty

Last year, when the U.S. government placed tariffs on goods, it brought unprecedented uncertainty to our economy and added pressure for many Ontario businesses and workers.

We acted quickly to protect Ontario from these economic impacts in April 2025 and since then, have announced nearly $30 billion in relief and support for workers and businesses. These measures went beyond temporary relief, including investments that continue to build long-term resiliency, prosperity and set a strong path forward for growth.

We swiftly established the Protect Ontario Financing Program to provide targeted working capital support. Since its launch, the program has worked with a number of companies, the majority of which are small and medium-sized enterprises. Working with the federal government, our government supported Algoma Steel to help it navigate changing market conditions and the impact of U.S. tariffs.

 

    

 

    

Building on this momentum, we are establishing the Protect Ontario Account Investment Fund, in which the province will invest up to $4 billion, to identify and execute on a pipeline of new economy-enabling investment opportunities in high-growth industries like artificial intelligence, defence, advanced manufacturing, life sciences, biotechnology and research and development in the critical minerals sector. The fund will crowd in investment from pension funds and other private capital to advance Ontario’s long-term economic and strategic priorities. Together, these supports will diversify Ontario’s economy, enhance productivity, increase independence from U.S. trade relationships and reduce exposure to external economic uncertainty.

Ontario’s strong credit ratings, fiscal profile and professional approach to markets have contributed to unprecedented global investor demand for our debt and attractive interest rates with predictable, long-term costs.

We are helping to protect workers with the Protect Ontario Workers Employment Response (POWER) Centres, providing transition assistance, including referrals and access to Employment Ontario programs, for workers affected by layoffs. Last year, these centres helped nearly 15,000 workers.

And from April 1 to October 1, 2025, we made up to $9 billion available in liquidity relief to businesses through a six-month deferral of payments under select provincially administered taxes. This reduced short-term pressure on businesses during a period of economic uncertainty.

Protect Ontario by Building the Most Competitive Economy in the G7

Through key actions our government has taken and supported since 2018, businesses would benefit from nearly $10 billion in estimated cost savings and support this year. As part of our plan to make Ontario the most competitive jurisdiction not just in Canada, but in the G7, our government is delivering on a multi-year Tax Action Plan.

As part of this effort, we are proposing to cut Ontario’s small business corporate income tax rate by more than 30 per cent. This would provide up to $5,000 in annual tax relief to small businesses and build on actions already taken, including expanding access to the small business rate in 2023, helping to lower costs and protect Ontario’s small businesses.

The government would also lower the cost of doing business by accelerating the income tax deduction for the cost of equipment and other assets, subject to passage of federal legislation. Further incentivizing investment in these assets will help Ontario’s business competitiveness. This would provide over $3.5 billion in Ontario income tax relief over four years to qualifying businesses. By taking action to allow faster writeoffs of capital investments, the government would lower costs for businesses, creating the conditions that make Ontario an attractive place to start and grow a business.

 

    

 

    

In addition to tax competitiveness, we are leading the country in removing interprovincial trade barriers, cutting red tape and streamlining permitting processes for job-creating investments. These changes are strengthening economic integration across Canada and attracting strategic investments, helping to improve competitiveness and create new markets and opportunities for Ontario workers and businesses.

In October, we launched the One Project, One Process framework to speed up approvals for advanced exploration, mine development and mine expansion projects. To date, three major projects have been announced as accelerating through the framework: Frontier Lithium’s PAK Lithium Project, the Canada Nickel Company’s Crawford Nickel Project and Kinross Gold’s Great Bear Project. More projects are being onboarded in the coming months.

In partnership with First Nations, Ontario continues its plan to unlock the economic potential of the Ring of Fire by supporting the development of key infrastructure, including all-season, dependable road access and connections to provincial highways. Earlier this month, we released a plan to accelerate completion of construction on the all-season roads to the Ring of Fire five years ahead of schedule, with construction planned to start in June 2026 and roads beginning to open in November 2030. This plan is supported by agreements with three First Nations and a co-operation agreement with the federal government to eliminate duplication between provincial environmental assessments and federal impact assessments. Ontario continues to call on the federal government to match or exceed Ontario’s $1 billion funding commitments to support infrastructure in the Ring of Fire.

We are powering Ontario’s economic growth by making record investments in energy infrastructure. Ontario is leading nuclear expansion and is leveraging its nuclear advantage to advance opportunities here at home and globally. The government’s nuclear expansion plan is expected to create 150,000 new job opportunities and add over $800 billion to Canada’s economy.

We reached a significant milestone recently with the completion of construction on the refurbishment of the Darlington Unit 4 nuclear reactor, with the overall refurbishment project coming in ahead of schedule and $150 million under budget.

We are advancing planning for new large-scale nuclear energy generation. Last month, Ontario Power Generation signed an agreement for the Wesleyville nuclear project, which will support 10,500 jobs across Ontario, including 1,700 new good-paying jobs in Port Hope and contribute $235 billion to Ontario’s GDP over its lifespan.

Ontario continues to lead the G7 by building the first of four small modular reactors (SMRs) at the existing Darlington nuclear site; once fully licensed and built, these four SMRs will produce enough electricity to power the equivalent of 1.2 million homes, and the government is supporting this project with a $1 billion investment through the Building Ontario Fund.

 

    

 

    

Through the Protect Ontario Through Free Trade Within Canada Act, 2025, Ontario became the first province in Canada to remove all of its Party-Specific Exemptions under the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (CFTA), and we are also working to enable mutual recognition of goods and services and expand labour mobility with the new, first-in-Canada “As of Right” rules.

In January, we brought into force a historic labour mobility regulation that breaks down interprovincial barriers for workers and businesses and helps employers access the skilled Canadian workers they need sooner.

The government is also helping Ontario businesses expand into new markets. In November 2025, Ontario invested an additional $100 million into the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF) to help businesses make near-term investments so that they can serve more interprovincial customers, enhance trade resiliency and reshore critical supply chains.

We are also working hard to support the expansion of trade and investment with non-U.S. partners.

The world has changed, and national defence is becoming an increasingly important pillar of Canada’s security and economic resilience as the federal government prepares to raise defence spending to meet its NATO commitments.

Ontario is well positioned to play a leading role in supporting national defence and has continued its advocacy for the City of Toronto to be selected as the headquarters of the new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank (DSRB) by launching a comprehensive bid book outlining the city’s unique strengths to host the bank. The DSRB is expected to create up to 3,500 direct jobs, and support thousands of additional indirect jobs, which would benefit Toronto as well as the entire province and country.

 

    

 

    

Protect Ontario by Building

Ontario has a 10-year, over $210 billion plan to build Ontario — the most ambitious provincial capital plan in Canadian history. This historic capital plan includes investments to get shovels in the ground faster, create more construction jobs and lay the foundation for long-term growth and prosperity for communities across the province.

The costs of gridlock are real. Time stuck in traffic keeps people away from their families and delays the movement of goods for businesses and trade. Gridlock also costs Ontario $56 billion every year — a cost that is expected to rise to $108 billion per year by 2044 if no action is taken.

To fight gridlock and get people and goods moving, we have started construction on Highway 413, which is expected to shorten travel times for drivers by up to 30 minutes, and the Bradford Bypass, which will save drivers an estimated 35 minutes in travel time. We are also expanding existing highways and conducting a feasibility study to assess building a new expressway under Highway 401.

The government is also leading the largest expansion of public transit in North America, including through the recent opening of two new transit lines in Toronto.

We continue to expand GO train and bus services to make it easier and faster for people to get where they need to go within the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This includes extensions to Kitchener with the first-ever weekend service, more frequent train service to the Niagara Region, construction at Woodbine Station and early work on the Bowmanville GO Extension.

We are also building subways, with the largest subway expansion in Ontario’s history, and continuing to meet construction milestones on the Ontario Line, such as excavation work at Queen Station. Ontario is breaking ground on the first of three stations for the Scarborough Subway Extension and taking steps to get shovels in the ground for the Yonge North Subway Extension.

Protect Ontario by Keeping Costs Down

Families in Ontario have seen costs increase on everyday items, and those costs are increasing as a result of ongoing economic uncertainty caused by tariffs.

This is why the government acted early to provide relief and deliver on its objective to make life more affordable across the province.

We have helped make life more affordable by committing almost $11.9 billion to support families and individuals in the 2025–26 fiscal year alone.

 

    

 

    

The government is helping to keep electricity bills stable and predictable through programs such as the Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) — decreasing monthly bills for a typical residential consumer by about $36 — and supporting other targeted programs such as the Low-Income Energy Assistance Program (LEAP).

Last fall, to make new homes more affordable for first-time home buyers, we announced a proposal to remove the 8 per cent provincial portion of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on homes valued at or up to $1 million. We are working with the federal government to expand the proposed rebate by having it take effect earlier, which would enable eligible buyers who purchased a new home on or after March 20, 2025, to qualify.

More can and should be done to provide real relief for home buyers.

To make housing more affordable, we are now taking steps to temporarily enhance HST rebates for all buyers of new homes. Ontario is proposing to remove the full 8 per cent provincial portion of the HST for eligible buyers of new homes valued up to $1 million for up to $80,000 in relief, and this amount would be maintained for new homes valued at or up to $1.5 million. This could stimulate thousands of housing starts, support up to 14,000 good construction jobs and boost Ontario real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points.

While Ontario is moving first, we continue to work with the federal government to partner and match Ontario’s action to lower the cost of new homes, put money back into people’s pockets and create more jobs.

Our government’s cuts to the Gasoline Tax and Fuel Tax rates have been made permanent and have already saved individuals and families $2.1 billion since first introduced in July 2022.

To keep lowering costs, we permanently removed tolls from the provincially owned portion of Highway 407 East, saving commuters an estimated $7,200 annually. We are extending the One Fare program for an additional two years to continue to keep transit costs down for riders in the Greater Toronto Area. The One Fare program saves daily users up to $1,600 per year. Since launching in 2024, this program has saved the people of Ontario nearly $233 million.

 

    

 

    

Protect Ontario’s Borders and Communities

Our plan to protect Ontario includes keeping our streets and communities safe through policies that enhance border security, keep dangerous criminals off the streets and protect communities.

In January 2025, Ontario launched Operation Deterrence to enhance security at the border and address criminal activity affecting communities on both sides of the border. Since this launch, Ontario’s enhanced border enforcement measures have resulted in the tracing of over 550 illegal firearms, of which over 440 were traced to the United States, the seizure of 4,152 kilograms of cocaine and 192 kilograms of fentanyl and 641 charges laid through Ontario Provincial Police border-related patrols.

The province is further enhancing border policing capacity through Operation Deterrence 2.0 and is investing $32.5 million in 2026–27 for two new border security grant programs.

To hold offenders accountable and support victims of crime, the government is also exploring options to make part of the Ontario Sex Offender and Trafficker Registry publicly available, to give the public the information it needs to support safe communities.

Combined with historic investments in correctional capacity to guarantee space for high-risk, repeat and violent offenders, these measures underscore Ontario’s commitment to keeping communities safe, supporting law enforcement and holding offenders accountable.

We are taking action to protect communities by proposing new legislation to strengthen Ontario’s bail system and tighten bail requirements for violent and repeat offenders. We are also expanding specialized bail prosecution teams that work with police to build strong cases for bail hearings involving serious offences. The government continues to support police services in ensuring that high-risk and repeat violent offenders comply with their bail conditions.

 

    

 

    

Protect Ontario’s Public Services

A strong, resilient economy helps support the world-class social services that families in Ontario count on. We continue to invest in our social services to further improve them so they can deliver on standards that the people of Ontario deserve.

We are providing $965 million, including $186 million in new funding, to the Ontario Autism Program in 2026–27 to improve services for children and youth on the autism spectrum.

As announced last December, the government is investing $20 million to launch the Liam Riazati Memorial Fund to help keep children safe in child care centres. This fund will support licensed community-based facilities in their efforts to install preventive concrete barriers that protect these centres and their outdoor play spaces.

Our government is ensuring that student achievement always comes first in Ontario’s education system. By providing $66 million, or $750 for every elementary school homeroom teacher per school year through the Classroom Supplies Fund, we are helping teachers access the classroom materials they need to fit their teaching plans.

Last month, we took action to protect postsecondary education by announcing a transformative $6.4 billion in new funding for the postsecondary sector. This will ensure the sustainability of our colleges, universities and Indigenous Institutes, and help prepare graduates to develop the skills they need to find good-paying, rewarding careers. This funding will also ensure that the province’s world-class institutions are sustainable and continue to produce one of the most competitive workforces in the G7 for generations to come.

We also continue to make record investments in Ontario’s health care sector, thanks, in part, to our $64 billion plan. These investments include $50 billion in capital grants dedicated to building and upgrading hospitals and other health infrastructure. We are also delivering on our four-year $3.4 billion Primary Care Action Plan and other investments to build and expand medical schools to support the training of new doctors.

For the fourth consecutive year, our government is making a historic investment in hospitals with over $1.1 billion in additional funding, as well as $139.4 million in additional funding to long-term care homes, further strengthening health care in Ontario.

 

    

 

    

Ready to Protect Ontario

Ontario continues to navigate a period of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The year ahead could bring the potential of new challenges.

This is why our government is ready with a plan to protect Ontario — for today and for generations to come.

Our government continues to deliver on our plan to help create a province that is more competitive, more resilient and more self-reliant than ever.

We continue to take the steps needed to lower costs and protect Ontario businesses, while keeping costs down for families and individuals by supporting ongoing investments in key public services, job creation and the province’s long-term prosperity. We also remain focused on preserving the fiscal flexibility to adapt to changing conditions, in order to deliver a prudent and fiscally responsible outlook.

This is why we are also building to grow — creating new opportunities for workers, no matter what. That’s how we are protecting Ontario.

Our government is not only building new, large-scale nuclear facilities, we have also completed the first small modular reactor in the G7. We are speeding up approvals to build mines and unlock access to the critical minerals the world needs. We are diversifying our trade and building pipelines, rail lines and ports to connect Ontario to new markets.

We will continue building the infrastructure that supports growth, homes that are welcoming and skills that yield opportunities.

We will manage finances responsibly, so Ontario remains competitive, resilient and self-reliant.

We will not only adapt to change — we will lead it.

We are building to make Ontario the most competitive economy in the G7.

Together, we will protect Ontario.

Original signed by

The Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy

Ontario’s Minister of Finance

 

    

 

    

Contents

 

Minister’s Foreword
A Plan to Protect Ontario			iii
Protect Workers and Businesses from Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty			iii
Protect Ontario by Building the Most Competitive Economy in the G7			iv
Protect Ontario by Building			vii
Protect Ontario by Keeping Costs Down			vii
Protect Ontario’s Borders and Communities			ix
Protect Ontario’s Public Services			x
Ready to Protect Ontario			xi
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief			3
Ontario’s Economic Outlook			5
Revisions to the Economic Outlook Since the 2025 Budget			5
Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly			7
Ontario’s Fiscal Plan			9
Revenue Outlook Over the Medium Term			10
Program Expense Outlook Over the Medium Term			10
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Outlook Over the Medium Term			10
Other Fiscal Plan Assumptions			11
Economic and Fiscal Outlook Scenarios			11
Borrowing and Debt Management			13
Ontario’s Capital Plan			15
Building Together Through Federal–Provincial Partnerships			20

 

    

 

    

Chapter 1: A Plan to Protect Ontario
Section A: Protect Workers and Businesses from Tariffs and       Economic Uncertainty
Supporting Businesses Through the Protect Ontario Financing Program			24
Investing in Ontario’s Future Economy with the Protect Ontario Account Investment Fund			25
Assisting Communities and Industries Impacted by Trade Disruptions			26
Protecting Ontario with the Buy Ontario Act			26
Protecting Ontario’s Auto Sector			28
Fostering Growth in Ontario’s Forest Sector			31
Supporting Innovation in Ontario’s Forest Sector			31
Investing in Ontario’s Forest Biomass Program			32
Developing Advanced Wood Construction in Ontario			33
Supporting Workers Impacted by Tariffs			34
Helping Businesses Through the Deferral of Select Provincially Administered Taxes			35
Section B: Protect Ontario by Building the Most Competitive Economy       in the G7
Strengthening the Foundation for Growth Through a Multi-Year Tax Action Plan			37
Protect Ontario by Unleashing the Economy			38
Powering Ontario’s Energy Future			38
Unleashing Ontario’s Critical Minerals Advantage			43
Advancing Ontario’s Life Sciences Sector			49
Building Ontario’s Defence Industry			51
Accelerating New Opportunities for Investment and Growth			53
Building New Trade Opportunities for Ontario Businesses			58
Making Ontario Even More Competitive and Productive			61
Creating New Growth Opportunities Through Innovation and Technology			64
Supporting Manufacturing Businesses and Workers			68
Cultivating Cutting-Edge Growth in Ontario’s Agri-Food Sector			70
Investing to Protect and Support Northern and Rural Communities			72
Strengthening Ontario’s Tourism and Cultural Sectors			73
Supporting Entrepreneurs to Grow and Succeed			76
Improving Capital Markets			77
Safeguarding Ontario’s Workforce			78

 

    

 

    

Modernizing Ontario’s Pension Sector			80
Protect Ontario by Building			83
Building Highways			83
Building Transit			94
Protect Ontario Communities			100
Protect Ontario’s Borders and Communities			105
Protecting Ontario’s Borders			106
Strengthening Ontario’s Bail System to Protect Communities			107
Building More Provincial Jails			108
Getting More Boots on the Ground by Making It Easier to Recruit and Train Police Officers			109
Modernizing Police Training Facilities			110
Supporting Police Services in First Nation Communities			110
Fighting Guns, Gangs and Violence			110
Tackling Organized Crime			111
Strengthening Enforcement and Partnerships to Combat Contraband Tobacco			112
Deterring Financial Crime Through Beneficial Ownership Transparency			112
Protecting Public Spaces			112
Protecting Children from Sexual Abuse and Exploitation on the Internet			114
Investing in Emergency Services			114
Protect Ontario by Keeping Costs Down			115
Supporting Families and Individuals			115
Enhancing Harmonized Sales Tax Relief on New Homes			117
Expanding Harmonized Sales Tax Relief for First-Time Home Buyers on New Homes			118
Saving on Energy Costs			118
Permanently Reducing the Tax Rates for Gasoline and Fuel			119
Removing Tolls			119
Helping Transit Users Save with One Fare			120
Putting Fans and Consumers First			121
Ensuring an Effective Property Assessment and Taxation System			121

 

    

 

    

Protect Ontario’s Public Services			123
Connecting Everyone in Ontario to Primary Care			123
Investing in Hospitals			125
Strengthening Home and Community Care			125
Expanding Access to Supportive Housing			126
Training and Retaining Health Care Providers Across Ontario			126
Continuing to Invest in Clinical Education for Nurses			127
Building and Expanding Hospitals			127
Supporting High-Quality Long-Term Care			129
Building Long-Term Care Homes			129
Strengthening Supports to Improve Student Achievement			131
Protecting Children in Child Care with the Liam Riazati Memorial Fund			132
Investing in Schools and Child Care Spaces			132
Supporting the Postsecondary Sector’s Long-Term Success and Sustainability			135
Expanding Services for Children and Youth with Autism			136
Enhancing Social Assistance to Help Manage Rising Costs			136
Strengthening Community Organizations to Support People			137
Boosting Supports to Help Women Build Skills and Advance Their Careers			137
Advocating for a Fair and Sustainable Federal Transfer System			138
Protecting Ontario with Stronger Safeguards for Public Information			139
Allowing Retail Stores to be Open on Family Day and Victoria Day			140
Public Services Delivered More Efficiently			140
Strengthening Public Services for a Sustainable and Prosperous Future			142
Modernizing Ontario’s Alcohol Sector			143
Improving Ontario’s Mortgage Broker Industry			145
Protecting Consumers in the Life and Health Insurance Sector			145

 

    

 

    

Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook
Introduction			149
Revisions to the Outlook Since the 2025 Budget			150
Recent Economic Performance			151
Ontario Labour Market			152
Consumer Price Inflation			153
Economic Outlook			154
Global Economic Environment			158
Financial Markets and Other External Factors			160
Details of Ontario’s Economic Outlook			162
Employment			163
Consumer Price Index			164
Housing Market			165
Risks to the Outlook			166
Alternative Economic Scenarios			167
Transparent Reporting on the Economy			169
Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
Introduction			173
2025–26 Interim Fiscal Performance			175
Revenue Update			177
Expense Update			179
Prudence in 2025–26			180
Medium-Term Fiscal Plan			181
Medium-Term Revenue Outlook			181
Medium-Term Expense Outlook			184
Prudence Built into the Medium-Term Outlook			186
Transparency and Risks			188
New Accounting Standards			189
Conceptual Framework and Reporting Model			189
Details of Ontario’s Finances			190

 

    

 

    

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management
Introduction			203
Borrowing Program			204
Sustainable Bond Framework			208
Cost of Debt			210
Term of Debt			213
Ensuring Adequate Liquidity Levels			214
Debt Burden Reduction Strategy			215
Consolidated Financial Tables			221
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
Overview			225
Lowering Taxes for Small Businesses			225
Enhancing Harmonized Sales Tax Relief on New Homes			225
Eliminating the Harmonized Sales Tax New Housing Rebate and New Residential Rental Property Rebate			226
Expanding Harmonized Sales Tax Relief for First-Time Home Buyers on New Homes			227
Ontario Trillium Benefit Lump-Sum Payment Threshold			227
Simplifying and Reducing Alcohol Taxes			228
Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit			229
Providing Insurance Premium Tax Flexibility for Benefit Plans			229
Summary of Measures			230
Technical Amendments			231
Other Legislative Initiatives			231

 

    

 

    

List of Tables

 

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook			5
Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2025 Budget Compared to 2026 Budget			6
Details of Ontario’s Fiscal Plan			9
Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios			11
Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios			11
Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios			12
2025–26 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook			13
Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures			14
Infrastructure Expenditures			19

Chapter 1:		A Plan to Protect Ontario
Table 1.1		Recently Completed Highway Projects			92
Table 1.2		Projected School Projects Opening for the 2026–27 School Year			133
Table 1.3		Continuing to Get Shovels in the Ground to Build More Schools			134
Chapter 2:		Economic Performance and Outlook
Table 2.1		Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook			149
Table 2.2		Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2025 Budget Compared to the 2026 Budget			150
Table 2.3		Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth			154
Table 2.4		Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Nominal GDP Growth			155
Table 2.5		External Factors			161
Table 2.6		Ontario’s Economic Outlook			162
Table 2.7		Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios			167
Table 2.8		Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios			167
Table 2.9		Ontario Economic Accounts Release Dates			169

 

    

 

    

Chapter 3:		Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
Table 3.1		Fiscal Summary			174
Table 3.2		2025–26 In-Year Fiscal Performance			176
Table 3.3		Summary of 2025–26 Revenue Changes Since the 2025 Budget			177
Table 3.4		Summary of 2025–26 Expense Changes Since the 2025 Budget			179
Table 3.5		Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook			181
Table 3.6		Selected Economic and Revenue Sensitivities			183
Table 3.7		Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook			184
Table 3.8		Selected Expense Sensitivities			187
Table 3.9		Total Revenue			190
Table 3.10		Total Expense			192
Table 3.11		Infrastructure Expenditures			197
Table 3.12		10-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics			198
Chapter 4:		Borrowing and Debt Management
Table 4.1		2025–26 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook			204
Table 4.2		Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures			217
Table 4.3		Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit			221
Table 4.4		Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit			222
Annex: Details of Tax Measures and Other Legislative Initiatives
Table A.1		Summary of Measures			230

 

    

 

    

List of Charts

 

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief
Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to the 2025 Budget					4
Ontario Fiscal Outlook Scenarios					12
Chapter 1:		A Plan to Protect Ontario
Chart 1.1		Building Roads to the Ring of Fire			47
Chart 1.2		Supporting Ontario Businesses			63
Chart 1.3		Highway 413 Project Route			85
Chart 1.4		Bradford Bypass Project Route			86
Chart 1.5		Building Transit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe			96
Chart 1.6		Select Measures That Provide Relief to Families and Individuals			116
Chart 1.7		Ontario’s Health Sector Investments Compared to Federal Health Transfers			138
Chart 1.8		Comparative Cumulative Growth Rate of Public-Sector Employees			141
Chapter 2:		Economic Performance and Outlook
Chart 2.1		Ontario Exports of Goods and Services			151
Chart 2.2		Ontario Employment Growth in 2025			152
Chart 2.3		Inflation Continues to Moderate in 2025			153
Chart 2.4		Ontario Real GDP Growth Outperformed Expectations in 2025			156
Chart 2.5		Ontario Real GDP Growth Outlook Modestly Changed			157
Chart 2.6		Economic Policy Uncertainty			158
Chart 2.7		Global Real GDP Growth Projections			159
Chart 2.8		Labour Market Projected to Strengthen			163
Chart 2.9		Housing Market Projected to Rebound			165
Chart 2.10		Range of Ontario GDP Scenario Forecasts			168
Chapter 3:		Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook
Chart 3.1		Current Fiscal Outlook Compared to the 2025 Budget			173
Chart 3.2		Composition of Total Revenue, 2026–27			196
Chart 3.3		Composition of Total Expense, 2026–27			196

 

    

 

    

Chapter 4:		Borrowing and Debt Management
Chart 4.1		Borrowing Outlook Scenarios for Long-Term Borrowing			205
Chart 4.2		2025–26 Borrowing			206
Chart 4.3		Domestic and International Borrowing			207
Chart 4.4		Green Bond Allocation by Framework Category			208
Chart 4.5		Ontario’s Green Bond Issues			209
Chart 4.6		Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt			210
Chart 4.7		Average Annual Ontario Borrowing Rate Forecast			211
Chart 4.8		Comparison of Interest on Debt Servicing Charges Forecast			212
Chart 4.9		Weighted-Average Term of Borrowings			213
Chart 4.10		Average Unrestricted Liquid Reserve Levels			214
Chart 4.11		2026 Ontario Budget – DBRS Definitions			216
Chart 4.12		Net Debt-to-GDP			218
Chart 4.13		Net Debt-to-Revenue (formerly Net Debt-to-Operating Revenue)			219
Chart 4.14		Interest-to-Revenue (formerly Net Interest-to-Operating Revenue)			220

 

    

 

    

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

Ontario, alongside jurisdictions around the world, continues to navigate a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and an evolving global landscape, as trade tensions and supply chain pressures impact the economy.

Despite these headwinds, Ontario’s economy has been resilient and performed better than expected in 2025. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 1.2 per cent, up from 0.8 per cent at the time of the 2025 Budget.

It is more imperative than ever that the government continue to make prudent and thoughtful decisions that enable ongoing investments in key public services and the province’s long-term prosperity, while maintaining fiscal flexibility to respond to changing conditions.

In 2025–26, Ontario is projecting a deficit of $12.3 billion. Over the medium term, the government is projecting deficits of $13.8 billion in 2026–27 and $6.1 billion in 2027–28, before planning for a surplus of $0.6 billion in 2028–29, including reserve and contingencies.

The government continues to prioritize strategic investments in initiatives that protect workers and the economy from global trade tensions and put money back in people’s pockets without compromising on a path to balance.

Ontario has, and continues to implement, a plan to make Ontario the most competitive place to invest and do business in the G7 by cutting taxes, reducing red tape, streamlining permitting, removing interprovincial trade barriers, investing in infrastructure, supporting workers, improving services and making life more affordable. This is how the government is protecting Ontario.

 

    

 

    

 

    

 

    

Ontario’s Economic Outlook

Ontario’s real GDP is projected to grow by 1.0 per cent in 2026 and growth is expected to pick up in subsequent years with projected increases of 1.7 per cent in 2027, 1.8 per cent in 2028 and 2.0 per cent in 2029. For the purposes of prudent fiscal planning, these projections are set slightly below the average of private-sector forecasts.

Summary of Ontario’s Economic Outlook

 

(Per Cent)
		2025				2026p				2027p				2028p				2029p
Real GDP Growth			1.2e				1.0				1.7				1.8				2.0
Nominal GDP Growth			4.2e				3.2				3.9				3.7				3.9
Employment Growth			1.0				0.5				0.7				0.8				1.1
CPI Inflation			1.9				2.1				2.0				2.0				2.0

e = estimate.

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of January 16, 2026.

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Revisions to the Economic Outlook Since the 2025 Budget

The outlook has been revised compared to the projections in the 2025 Budget. Key changes since the 2025 Budget include:

 

•	Stronger nominal GDP growth in 2025 and 2026;

 

•	Stronger growth in compensation of employees and net operating surplus in 2025;

 

•	Stronger job creation in 2025 and 2026; and

 

•	Slower growth in home resales in 2025 and 2026.

 

    

 

    

Changes in the Ontario Ministry of Finance Key Economic Forecast

Assumptions: 2025 Budget Compared to 2026 Budget

 

(Per Cent Change)
		2025								2026p								2027p								2028p
		2025  Budget				2026 Budget				2025 Budget				2026 Budget				2025 Budget				2026 Budget				2025 Budget				2026 Budget
Real Gross Domestic Product			0.8				1.2e				1.0				1.0				1.9				1.7				1.9				1.8
Nominal Gross Domestic Product			3.1				4.2e				3.0				3.2				4.0				3.9				4.0				3.7
Compensation of Employees			3.7				4.0e				3.2				3.2				3.6				3.3				3.8				3.5
Net Operating Surplus — Corporations			(3.0)				4.4e				6.4				4.7				7.2				7.2				5.2				6.1
Nominal Household Consumption			3.5				4.0e				3.1				3.3				3.7				3.4				3.8				3.6
Other Economic Indicators
Employment			0.9				1.0				0.4				0.5				0.9				0.7				0.9				0.8
Job Creation (000s)			73				81				33				41				74				58				75				67
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent)			7.6				7.7				7.3				7.4				6.6				6.9				6.2				6.4
Consumer Price Index			2.3				1.9				2.0				2.1				2.0				2.0				2.0				2.0
Housing Starts (000s)1			71.8				65.4				74.8				64.8				82.5				70.3				85.9				76.8
Home Resales			5.3				(5.6)				12.7				9.1				4.6				5.6				1.5				4.6
Home Resale Prices			(1.2)				(4.4)				2.6				0.8				3.8				2.7				4.0				4.2
Key External Variables
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product			1.4				2.2				1.4				2.4				2.0				2.1				2.0				2.0
WTI Crude Oil ($US per Barrel)			69				65				69				59				74				62				75				67
Canadian Dollar (Cents US)			69.2				71.6				71.2				73.2				73.0				75.3				74.1				76.4
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Per Cent)2			2.4				2.6				2.3				2.3				2.4				2.6				2.6				2.5
10-Year Government Bond Rate (Per Cent)2			3.1				3.2				3.2				3.3				3.4				3.5				3.5				3.5

e = estimate.

p	= Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of January 16, 2026.

1	Housing starts projection based on private-sector average as of January 16, 2026.

2	Government of Canada interest rates.

Sources: Statistics Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; Canadian Real Estate Association; Bank of Canada; United States Bureau of Economic Analysis; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (February 2026 and October 2025); U.S. Energy Information Administration; and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

 

    

 

    

Managing Ontario’s Finances Responsibly

The government’s plan is consistent with the Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 and its governing principles that guide Ontario’s fiscal policy.

 

•	Transparent: The government continues to be transparent through the release of regular fiscal updates. This is the eighth year in a row that the government has received a clean audit opinion from Ontario’s Auditor General.

 

•	Responsible: The government has developed a measured and accountable approach to managing Ontario’s finances, while investing in key public services and capital projects.

 

•	Flexible: The government’s plan has built in appropriate levels of prudence in the form of contingency funds and a reserve to ensure the necessary fiscal flexibility is available to respond to changing circumstances.

 

•	Equitable: The government’s plan sustains investments in key public services, such as health care, social services and education, ensuring that these services are readily available for the people of today and maintained for the benefit of future generations.

 

•	Sustainable: The government remains committed to achieving a balanced budget and reducing the province’s debt burden to ensure the long-term sustainability of Ontario’s finances.

Ontario remains committed to responsible borrowing and debt management. Over the medium-term outlook, the net debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to stay below the province’s target of 40.0 per cent, demonstrating that Ontario continues to make positive progress towards reducing the debt burden. Ontario’s interest-to-revenue ratio is projected to be 6.3 per cent in 2025–26, 0.2 percentage points lower than the 6.5 per cent forecasted in the 2025 Budget. This ratio remains close to the lowest levels it has been at since the 1980s.

Ontario’s strong credit ratings, fiscal profile and professional approach to markets have contributed to unprecedented global investor demand for the province’s debt. Increased international demand has resulted in increased foreign issuance, allowing for further diversification of Ontario’s investor base while reducing overall borrowing costs. For example, this year, for the first time, Ontario issued euro denominated 30-year bonds, raising $0.6 billion at lower costs than issuing in Canada after being hedged back to Canadian dollars.

 

    

 

    

In response to global economic challenges, Ontario has continued the prudent management of its finances to build a more resilient, self-reliant economy and secure long-term prosperity. The government will continue to rise to these challenges by pursuing opportunities to modernize programs, reduce bureaucracy and administrative costs and ensure that services are provided in the most efficient and cost-effective way possible. This will help ensure that Ontario has the fiscal capacity to deliver better front-line services for those who need them most, and that it can invest in strategic priorities to unleash the economy. See section entitled “Strengthening Public Services for a Sustainable and Prosperous Future” in Chapter 1: Protect Ontario’s Public Services for more details.

 

Determining Extraordinary Circumstances   The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 requires that the government determine that extraordinary circumstances exist if it plans to run a deficit. The government has determined that extraordinary circumstances exist for the planned deficits in the current year and the medium-term outlook as a result of ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, including significant risk to Ontario’s economy related to trade. Combatting this risk requires significant government investment in improving public services, streamlining government processes, investing in critical infrastructure and supporting emerging industries. Ontario is not alone, as these challenges have resulted in difficult economic and fiscal circumstances for governments across Canada and around the world.

 

    

 

    

Ontario’s Fiscal Plan

In 2026–27, the government is projecting a deficit of $13.8 billion, improving to a deficit of $6.1 billion in 2027–28 and a surplus of $0.6 billion in 2028–29. This outlook is driven by investments to grow Ontario’s economy and protect critical public services such as health care, education and infrastructure.

Details of Ontario’s Fiscal Plan

 

($ Billions)
		Actual 2024–25				Interim  2025–26				Medium-Term Outlook
										2026–27				2027–28				2028–29
Revenue
Personal Income Tax			55.7				61.9				65.1				69.5				74.1
Sales Tax			39.4				39.2				39.9				43.2				45.1
Corporations Tax			27.8				27.6				28.6				30.6				32.5
Ontario Health Premium			5.2				5.2				5.5				5.7				5.9
Education Property Tax			5.9				5.9				6.0				6.0				6.1
All Other Taxes			17.6				18.0				18.5				19.1				20.1
Total Taxation Revenue			151.5				158.0				163.6				174.1				183.8
Government of Canada Transfers			36.6				39.1				39.8				40.1				40.4
Income from Government Business Enterprises			7.5				7.3				6.5				6.8				7.3
Other Non-Tax Revenue			30.5				22.2				21.9				22.4				22.6
Total Revenue			226.2				226.6				231.9				243.4				254.1
Programs
Health Sector			91.3				97.8				101.2				103.5				106.7
Education Sector1			38.3				40.5				40.8				41.2				41.5
Postsecondary Education Sector			14.2				14.0				14.0				12.8				12.7
Children, Community and Social Services Sector			20.5				21.5				21.4				21.6				21.7
Justice Sector			7.2				7.3				7.3				7.3				7.4
Other Programs			40.6				41.2				42.4				42.5				41.3
Total Programs			212.1				222.4				227.0				229.0				231.3
Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges			15.1				16.0				17.2				18.6				19.7
Total Expense			227.3				238.4				244.2				247.5				251.1
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve			(1.1)				(11.8)				(12.3)				(4.1)				3.1
Reserve			–				0.5				1.5				2.0				2.5
Surplus/(Deficit)			(1.1)				(12.3)				(13.8)				(6.1)				0.6
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP2			35.7%				36.8%				37.7%				38.5%				38.2%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue2			191.2%				204.4%				210.9%				212.9%				209.8%
Interest as a Per Cent of Revenue			5.5%				6.3%				6.7%				6.9%				7.1%

1	Excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

2

For 2026–27 and future years, Net Debt reflects financial assets less financial liabilities and is aligned with Net Financial Liabilities, as will be reported in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2026–2027. See the Debt Burden Reduction Strategy in Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management for additional details on the calculations supporting the ratios.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

 

    

 

    

Revenue Outlook Over the Medium Term

Ontario’s revenue outlook is forecast to increase from $226.2 billion in 2024–25 to $254.1 billion in 2028–29.

Ontario’s revenue outlook is anchored by an economic projection based on private-sector forecasts and the best available information at the time of finalizing the planning projection. Details of the medium-term revenue outlook are outlined in Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook.

Key inputs included in the revenue forecast are: a prudent economic outlook, existing federal–provincial agreements and funding formulas and the business plans of government ministries, business enterprises and service organizations.

Program Expense Outlook Over the Medium Term

Ontario’s program expense outlook is expected to grow from $212.1 billion in 2024–25 to $231.3 billion in 2028–29. The additional funding will primarily be used to protect Ontario’s economy and its workers, improving affordability and strengthening investments in critical public services such as health, education and infrastructure. In addition, contingencies have been incorporated into the program expense outlook to ensure fiscal stability and the ability to respond to unforeseen events.

See Chapter 3: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan and Outlook for further details on the program expense outlook over the medium term.

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Outlook Over the Medium Term

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD) is forecast to be $16.0 billion in 2025–26, down from the 2025 Budget forecast of $16.2 billion. Over the medium-term outlook, IOD is forecast to be $17.2 billion in 2026–27, $18.6 billion in 2027–28 and $19.7 billion in 2028–29.

 

    

 

    

Other Fiscal Plan Assumptions

The reserve is set at $1.5 billion in 2026–27, $2.0 billion in 2027–28 and $2.5 billion in 2028–29, reflecting Ontario’s commitment to maintaining a prudent and flexible fiscal plan. These reserve levels are among the highest allocated in any Ontario Budget.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 37.7 per cent in 2026–27, 38.5 per cent in 2027–28 and declining to 38.2 per cent in 2028–29.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook Scenarios

To provide more transparency about the province’s economic outlook amid the elevated degree of economic uncertainty, the Ontario Ministry of Finance has developed Faster Growth and Slower Growth scenarios that could impact the economy over the next few years. These alternative scenarios should not be considered the best case or the worst case, but reasonable possible outcomes in this period of uncertainty. See Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook for more details.

Ontario Real GDP Growth Scenarios

 

(Per Cent)
		2026p				2027p				2028p				2029p
Faster Growth Scenario			1.6				2.2				1.9				2.1
Planning Projection			1.0				1.7				1.8				2.0
Slower Growth Scenario			0.3				0.6				1.8				2.0

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of January 16, 2026, and alternative scenarios.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Ontario Nominal GDP Growth Scenarios

 

(Per Cent)
		2026p				2027p				2028p				2029p
Faster Growth Scenario			4.0				4.6				4.0				4.2
Planning Projection			3.2				3.9				3.7				3.9
Slower Growth Scenario			2.3				2.6				3.5				3.7

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of January 16, 2026, and alternative scenarios.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

If either of the alternative economic scenarios were to materialize versus the Planning Projection, Ontario’s fiscal plan would also change as a result.

Based on the two alternative nominal GDP growth economic scenarios, two taxation revenue outlook scenarios were developed.

 

    

 

    

Ontario’s Taxation Revenue Scenarios

 

($ Billions)
		2026–27p				2027–28p				2028–29p
Faster Growth Scenario			166.2				179.4				191.3
Planning Projection			163.6				174.1				183.8
Slower Growth Scenario			160.9				167.8				175.5

p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources as of January 16, 2026, and alternative scenarios.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Under the Faster Growth scenario, total taxation revenue over the medium term is $7.4 billion higher than the Planning Projection in 2028–29; under the Slower Growth scenario, total taxation revenue is $8.3 billion lower.

Under the Faster Growth scenario, the deficit outlook may improve to $11.2 billion in 2026–27, $0.7 billion in 2027–28 and a surplus of $8.5 billion in 2028–29. However, if the Slower Growth scenario materializes instead, the deficit outlook may deteriorate to $16.6 billion in 2026–27, $12.7 billion in 2027–28 and $8.3 billion in 2028–29.

 

 

    

 

    

Borrowing and Debt Management

Ontario’s borrowing program is primarily used to fund deficits, refinance maturing debt, make investments in capital assets and support other loans and investments that advance key provincial priorities. Ontario will continue to finance most of its borrowing program in the long-term public markets in Canada, as well as internationally. Ontario completed long-term public borrowing of $58.6 billion for 2025–26. The total long-term borrowing requirements for 2026–27, 2027–28 and 2028–29 are forecast to be $47.2 billion, $43.1 billion and $42.7 billion, respectively. Ontario’s borrowing program is partly driven by a historic capital plan.

2025–26 Borrowing Program and Medium-Term Outlook

 

($ Billions)
		2025–26												Medium-Term Outlook
		2025  Budget				Change from 2025 Budget				Interim  2025–26				2026–27				2027–28				2028–29
Deficit/(Surplus)			14.6				(2.3)				12.3				13.8				6.1				(0.6)
Provincial Investment in Capital Assets			23.1				1.3				24.4				28.0				28.0				22.4
Pre-funding for Protect Ontario Account			–				5.0				5.0				–				–				–
Amortization of Capital Assets			(9.1)				–				(9.1)				(10.2)				(10.5)				(11.4)
Non-Cash and Cash Timing Adjustments			(3.1)				1.0				(2.1)				(2.5)				(2.7)				(3.5)
Net Loans and Investments1			1.2				1.1				2.4				5.2				5.6				4.9
Debt Maturities and Redemptions			33.1				–				33.1				26.9				27.5				30.7
Total Funding Requirement			59.8				6.1				65.9				61.2				54.1				42.7
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing			(5.0)				(0.5)				(5.5)				(6.0)				(6.0)				–
Increase/(Decrease) in Year-End Cash and Cash Equivalents			(12.0)				10.2				(1.8)				(8.0)				(5.0)				–
Total Long-Term Borrowing			42.8				15.8				58.6				47.2				43.1				42.7

1	The increase in Net Loans and Investments primarily reflects higher projected loan disbursements associated with Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP) policy changes effective in the 2026–27 academic year.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Ontario is projected to pay $16.0 billion in IOD in 2025–26, $17.2 billion in 2026–27, $18.6 billion in 2027–28 and $19.7 billion in 2028–29.

As a share of revenue, IOD is projected to remain near record lows in 2025–26. A one percentage point change in interest rates either up or down from the current interest rate is estimated to have a corresponding change in Ontario’s borrowing costs by around $0.9 billion in the first full year.

 

    

 

    

The net debt-to-GDP ratio in 2025–26 is now projected to be 36.8 per cent, or 1.1 percentage points lower than the 37.9 per cent forecast in the 2025 Budget, which is mainly due to a lower than previously projected deficit. Over the medium-term outlook, the net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain modestly lower than the forecasts provided in the 2025 Budget and continues to remain below target levels. The table below shows the progress that has been made on relevant debt sustainability measures; see Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management for more details on Ontario’s debt burden reduction strategy.

Progress on Relevant Debt Sustainability Measures

 

(Per Cent)
		Targets		2025–26 Forecast				2026–27 Forecast
				2025 Budget		2026 Budget		2025 Budget		2026 Budget
Net Debt-to-GDP1		<40.0		37.9		36.8		38.9		37.7
Net Debt-to-Revenue1		<200		211		204		215		211
Interest-to-Revenue		<7.5		6.5		6.3		6.7		6.7

1

For 2026–27 and future years, Net Debt reflects financial assets less financial liabilities and is aligned with Net Financial Liabilities, as will be reported in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2026–2027. See the Debt Burden Reduction Strategy in Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management for additional details on the calculations supporting the ratios.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.