(6) Risk

(a) Investment Related Risk

The NAV of each Fund’s shares relates directly to the value of the respective freight futures portfolio, cash and cash equivalents held by each Fund. Fluctuations in the prices of these assets could materially adversely affect the values and performance of an investment in BDRY and BWET shares. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; all or substantially all of an investment in BDRY or BWET could be lost.

The NAV of BDRY and BWET shares relates directly to the value of the futures investments held by each Fund which are materially impacted by fluctuations in changes in spot charter rates. Charter rates for dry bulk vessels and crude oil tankers are volatile and have declined significantly since their historic highs and may remain at low levels or decrease further in the future.

Futures and options contracts have expiration dates. Before or upon the expiration of a contract, BDRY and/or BWET may be required to enter into replacement contracts that are priced higher or that have less favorable terms than the contracts being replaced (see “Negative Roll Risk,” below). The Freight Futures market settles in cash against published indices, so there is no physical delivery against the futures contracts.

Similar to other futures contracts, the Freight Futures curve shape could be either in “contango” (where the futures curve is upward sloping with next futures price higher than the current one) or “backwardation” (where each the next futures price is lower than the current one). Contango curves are generally characterized by negative roll cost, as the expiring contract value is lower that the next prompt contract value, assuming the same lot size. That means there could be losses incurred when the contracts are rolled each period (“Negative Roll Risk”) and such losses are independent of the Freight Futures price level.

The Russia Ukraine war poses an increasing risk for global economic growth. Major economic sanctions against Russia are having a considerable impact on oil and gas prices, given the dependence of the EU on oil and gas exports out of Russia combined with limited spare capacity of such commodities globally. Energy price volatility has increased significantly, leading to inflationary pressures in the major developed countries that rely heavily on oil and gas exports out of Russia. In the case of BDRY, the combined Russia/Ukraine region account for approximately one quarter of global grain production, one of the main cargoes transported by dry bulk vessels, while coal and iron ore exports out of the region have also been reduced. The above factors can have a negative impact on demand for dry bulk transportation, while slower economic growth could also negatively affect demand for dry bulk commodities in the rest of the word, leading to lower dry bulk freight rates.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is having a profound impact on global commodities prices including grain and coal, two of the most important commodities for dry bulk shipping. Given the importance of the region in export volumes for both grains and coal, a prolonged stoppage could lead to significantly lower freight rates and thus a decline in freight futures prices and a decline in the value of BDRY. In addition, the recent geopolitical turmoil has led to an increase in government protectionism when it comes to commodities, and if such a trend continues, it could lead to lower bulk commodities trading globally over the long term. The impact of such a scenario on dry bulk shipping will be negative, leading to lower spot rates and as a result lower freight futures prices and a decline in the value of BDRY.

In the case of BWET, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also had a profound impact on oil prices and as a result on tanker rates and might continue to impact the level of tanker rates for years to come. Russia accounts for more than 10% of global oil production. Sanctions put in place to limit the exports of crude oil and refined products from Russia has caused a reshuffling in tanker trade patterns and has led to increasing volatility in tanker freight rates. With limited seaborne crude exports out of Russia, refiners and oil traders have been seeking alternative sources for feedstock crude, causing major disruptions in the traditional crude oil trading patterns. Volatility in tanker rates has increased, especially for tankers carrying refined products. As volatility of spot charter rates increases, higher trading volumes in freight futures would be expected as market participants tend to increase their hedging requirements. In addition, oil price volatility has increased significantly, impacting tanker spot rate freight rates.

The Hamas-Israel conflict has stoked fears of oil supply instability in the Middle East and globally. While not having an immediate impact on global oil production or tanker trade patterns, escalation or expansion of hostilities, interventions by other groups or nations, the imposition of economic sanctions on any of the oil producing nations, disruption of shipping transit in the Straits of Hormuz or other significant trade routes, or similar outcomes could lead to oil supply instability. The conflict is ongoing and, should it escalate and expand to other oil producing nations in the region, it may have a profound negative impact on oil prices and, as a result, the supply and demand for freight that could have a negative impact on spot freight rates for dry bulk and liquid freight and on Freight Futures.

The recent conflict between the US and Venezuela and the associated disruption in oil flows is having a significant impact on tanker demand. In addition, as the US has recently been seizing vessels linked to Venezuela, there has been additional disruptions and tonnage substitutions, which further restricts available tonnage for oil transportation. The situation is ongoing, and if it escalates further it could lead to much higher freight rates. On the other hand, any resolution could lead to increased vessel supply as sanctioned tonnage reenters the market and thus much lower freight rates. The recent announcements of tariffs on import goods by the US as well as corresponding increase in tariffs by other countries can have a meaningful negative impact on trade volumes, which could have a material adverse impact on shipping rates. As tariffs lead to less imports and exports, demand for transportation could potentially decrease leading to lower shipping rates. Such negative impact could affect both dry bulk and tanker rates alike. The impact of the implementation of higher tariffs around the globe on dry bulk shipping and tanker shipping will be negative, all else equal, leading to lower spot rates and as a result lower freight futures prices and a decline in the value of BDRY as well as BWET.

In addition, The People’s Republic of China (“China”) accounts for a sizable part of oil demand, and changes in the economic and political environment in China and policies adopted by the government to regulate its economy may have a material adverse effect on tanker charter rates and as a result, Freight Futures.

(b) Liquidity Risk

In certain circumstances, such as the disruption of the orderly markets for the futures contracts or Financial Instruments in which the Fund invest, the Funds might not be able to dispose of certain holdings quickly or at prices that represent what the market value may have been in an orderly market. Futures and option positions cannot always be liquidated at the desired price. It is difficult to execute a trade at a specific price when there is a relatively small volume of buy and sell orders in a market. A market disruption can also make it difficult to liquidate a position. The large size of the positions that the Funds may acquire increases the risk of illiquidity both by making its positions more difficult to liquidate and by potentially increasing losses while trying to do so. Such a situation may prevent the Funds from limiting losses, realizing gains or achieving a high correlation with the applicable Benchmark Portfolio.

(c) Natural Disaster/Epidemic Risk 

Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including pandemics and epidemics (for example, the novel coronavirus COVID-19), have been and can be highly disruptive to economies and markets and have recently led, and may continue to lead, to increased market volatility and significant market losses. Such natural disaster and health crises could exacerbate political, social, and economic risks previously mentioned, and result in significant breakdowns, delays, shutdowns, social isolation, and other disruptions to important global, local and regional supply chains affected, with potential corresponding results on the operating performance of the Funds and their investments. A climate of uncertainty and panic, including the contagion of infectious viruses or diseases, may adversely affect global, regional, and local economies and reduce the availability of potential investment opportunities, and increases the difficulty of performing due diligence and modeling market conditions, potentially reducing the accuracy of financial projections. Under these circumstances, the Funds may have difficulty achieving their investment objectives which may adversely impact performance. Further, such events can be highly disruptive to economies and markets, significantly disrupt the operations of individual companies (including, but not limited to, the Funds’ Sponsor and third party service providers), sectors, industries, markets, securities and commodity exchanges, currencies, interest and inflation rates, credit ratings, investor sentiment, and other factors affecting the value of the Funds’ investments. These factors can cause substantial market volatility. exchange trading suspensions and closures can impact on the ability of the Funds to complete redemptions and otherwise affect each Fund’s performance and the Funds’ trading in the secondary market. A widespread crisis may also affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the current time. How long such events will last and whether they will continue or reoccur cannot be predicted. Impacts from these events could have significant impact on the Funds’ performance, resulting in losses to the Funds.