EX-99.4

Exhibit 99.4

LOGO


MINISTRY OF FINANCE

2025–26 Third Quarter Finances		February 2026


Contents		The Third Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario’s 2025–26 fiscal outlook, primarily as of December 31, 2025.
A. Ontario’s 2025–26 Fiscal Outlook	2
B. Ontario’s Economic Outlook	8
C. Details of Ontario’s Finances	10
D. Ontario’s 2025–26 Borrowing Program	16

Highlights

•

Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, following a 0.7 per cent decline in the second quarter. Ontario’s real GDP rose by an estimated 1.2 per cent in 2025, which is higher than projected at the time of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, while the private-sector average projection for real GDP growth in 2026 has increased slightly to 1.1 per cent.

•

As of the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, the province’s 2025–26 deficit is projected to be $13.4 billion—an improvement of $0.1 billion compared to the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. The 2025 Budget, published in May 2025, projected a deficit of $14.6 billion.

•

Revenues in 2025–26 are projected to be $223.7 billion, $3.8 billion higher than forecasted in the 2025 Budget and $0.6 billion higher than expected in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

•

Overall program expense in 2025–26 is projected to be $219.9 billion, $3.6 billion higher than forecasted in the 2025 Budget and $1.5 billion higher than the forecast in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

- 1 -

Section A: Ontario’s 2025–26 Fiscal Outlook

The 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances provides the final update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook for the 2025–26 fiscal year, ahead of the 2026 Budget, demonstrating the government’s leadership and commitment to transparency and accountability. Protecting Ontario through building a more competitive, resilient and self-reliant economy remains the focus of the government’s economic plan. In the face of global economic uncertainty driven by evolving U.S. trade policy, the government will continue making investments to support growth and keep costs down for families, while maintaining a prudent and targeted path to balance.

Ontario’s finances are in the strongest position they have been in for over a decade. In 2024, S&P Global and Morningstar DBRS upgraded Ontario’s credit rating. This reverses the trend of credit downgrades and shows that Ontario’s prudent and responsible fiscal plan is working. A higher credit rating means Ontario is seen as a lower-risk borrower. This reduces Ontario’s borrowing costs and supports investment in the province, creating more jobs while financing the government’s historic infrastructure plans. Since the credit rating upgrades, Ontario has seen new international buyers of its bonds and continues to have the lowest interest rate of all provinces in the 30-year term.

In 2025, all four major credit rating agencies—Moody’s, Fitch, Morningstar DBRS and S&P Global—affirmed Ontario’s credit rating, and the outlook is stable. This reflects Ontario’s commitment to maintaining its targets for debt sustainability measures, despite the economic and geopolitical uncertainties the province is currently facing.

Ontario’s 2025–26 deficit is projected to be $13.4 billion—an improvement of $0.1 billion from the outlook published in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. The 2025 Budget, published in May 2025, projected a deficit of $14.6 billion.

Revenues in 2025–26 are projected to be $3.8 billion higher than forecasted in the 2025 Budget and $0.6 billion higher than expected in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

Overall program expense in 2025–26 is projected to be $219.9 billion, $3.6 billion higher than the 2025 Budget projection, and $1.5 billion higher than the forecast in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. New commitments since the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review primarily relate to investments to support the Ontario Student Assistance Program, hospital funding, emergency firefighting and evacuation services, road safety, and agreements with First Nation communities to unlock the Ring of Fire.

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges in 2025–26 is projected to be $16.2 billion, consistent with the forecasts in the 2025 Budget and the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

At the time of the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, the net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 36.9 per cent in 2025–26, 1.0 percentage point lower than the 37.9 per cent forecast in the 2025 Budget and 0.8 percentage points lower than the 37.7 per cent forecast in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

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The 2025 Budget included a $2.0 billion reserve in 2025–26, to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense forecasts. With the release of the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, the reserve has been reduced to $1.0 billion. The reserve provides prudence in the government’s fiscal framework and is distinct from contingency funds that set aside dedicated funding. The remaining reserve can be used to safeguard against any events and uncertainty that may arise or can be eliminated if not needed as part of year-end projections, supporting the government’s ability to protect the fiscal plan and uphold prudent financial management.

The government’s next economic and fiscal update, including the province’s final projection for 2025–26, will be released by March 31, 2026, as part of the 2026 Budget.

Table 1

2025–26 In-Year Fiscal Performance¹

($ Millions)

2025 Budget

Current Outlook

In-Year Change

Revenue

219,887

223,682

3,795

Expense

Programs

216,298

219,929

3,631

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges

16,198

16,177

(21

)

Total Expense

232,497

236,106

3,609

Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve

(12,609

)

(12,424

)

186

Reserve

2,000

1,000

(1,000

)

Surplus/(Deficit)

(14,609

)

(13,424

)

1,186

¹	Beginning in the 2025 Budget, the Total Revenue, Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD), and Total Expense figures for all years have been restated to report interest and investment income as part of revenue and separate from IOD. These changes are fiscally neutral.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Revenue

The outlook for revenue in 2025–26 is projected to be $223.7 billion, an increase of $3.8 billion compared to the 2025 Budget and $0.6 billion higher than the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

Key changes in the revenue outlook compared to the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review include:

•

Government of Canada Transfers projections have increased by $178 million, mainly due to higher Canada Health Transfer and Canada Social Transfer, as well as additional funding for emergency evacuation support services for First Nations.

•

Net Income from Government Business Enterprises increased by $399 million, driven mainly by a higher net income forecast for Ontario Power Generation, reflecting stronger realized gains in Ontario nuclear funds.

Table 2

Key Changes to 2025–26 Revenue Projections


($ Millions)

	2025–26

*2025 Budget* Total Revenue¹		219,887



Revenue Changes in the *2025–26 First Quarter Finances*		–



Revenue Changes in the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*		3,219



Revenue Changes Since the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*

Government of Canada Transfers		178

Government Business Enterprises		399

Total Revenue Changes Since the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*		577



Total Revenue Changes Since the *2025 Budget*		3,795



*2025–26 Third Quarter Finances* Total Revenue Outlook		223,682

¹	Beginning in the 2025 Budget, the Total Revenue, Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD), and Total Expense figures for all years have been restated to report interest and investment income as part of revenue and separate from IOD. These changes are fiscally neutral.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Additional developments could materially affect the 2025–26 revenue outlook as new information becomes available during and well after the end of the 2025–26 fiscal year. These include changes to the economic growth outlook, the results from tax return processing, revenue collections from Ontario-administered taxes and the earnings of government business enterprises. The government will monitor these developments and provide further details in future fiscal updates.

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Expense

Total expense is projected to be $236.1 billion, $3.6 billion higher than the 2025 Budget projection and $1.5 billion higher than the projection at the time of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

Table 3

Key Changes to 2025–26 Total Expense Projections



($ Millions)

		*2025–26*

*2025 Budget* Total Expense¹			232,497



Total Expense Changes in the *2025–26 First Quarter Finances*			–



Total Expense Changes in the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*			2,130



Total Program Expense Changes Since the *2025* *Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*

Ontario Student Assistance Program	1,429

Targeted Hospital Funding and Other Hospital Supports	664

Emergency Firefighting	60

Emergency Evacuation Support Services—First Nations	51

Road Safety Initiatives Fund	42

Ring of Fire Community Partnership Agreements with Webequie and Marten Falls First Nations	22

Rebuilding and Re-Imagining Samuel de Champlain Provincial Park	2

Total Program Expense Changes Since the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*			2,270



Drawdown of the Contingency Fund			(790	)



Total Net Program Expense Changes Since the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*			1,480

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Change Since the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review			–

Total Expense Changes Since the *2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review*			1,480



Total Expense Changes Since the *2025 Budget*			3,609



*2025–26 Third Quarter Finances* Total Expense Outlook			236,106

¹	Beginning in the 2025 Budget, the Total Revenue, Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD), and Total Expense figures for all years have been restated to report interest and investment income as part of revenue and separate from IOD. These changes are fiscally neutral.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

- 5 -

Program Expense Update

Total program expense in 2025–26 is projected to be $219.9 billion, $3.6 billion higher than forecasted in the 2025 Budget and $1.5 billion higher than the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. New commitments since the release of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review include supports for the Ontario Student Assistance Program, hospital funding, emergency firefighting and evacuation services, road safety, and agreements with First Nations to unlock the economic benefits of the Ring of Fire.

Key changes to program expense projections since the release of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review include:

•

$1,429.0 million for the Ontario Student Assistance Program, due to higher-than-forecasted uptake;

•

$664.1 million in health sector supports, to address hospital operational pressures;

•

$60.0 million to meet requirements for wildfire management and suppression activities for the 2025 fire season, which saw a 300 per cent increase in hectares burned, compared to 2024;

•

$50.7 million to support evacuation services for First Nation communities affected by spring flooding and wildland fires;

•

$42.0 million, as part of the Road Safety Initiatives Fund, to support traffic-calming measures in school zones and community safety zones that previously deployed municipal speed cameras;

•

$21.5 million for community supports, as part of the implementation of the Community Partnership Agreements with the Webequie and Marten Falls First Nations, to unlock the economic benefits of the Ring of Fire; and

•

$2.5 million as part of the government’s $4.8 million investment to rebuild and upgrade the storm-damaged Samuel de Champlain Provincial Park. The revitalization will attract visitors, create jobs and help more people enjoy the outdoors.

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Expense Update

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges expense is projected to be $16.2 billion, consistent with the forecast in the 2025 Budget and the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Interest rates have been within the range anticipated since the 2025 Budget. As a result, Ontario’s cost of borrowing for 2025–26 remains unchanged at 4.0 per cent.

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Fiscal Prudence

The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 requires Ontario’s fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expenses, including those resulting from Ontario’s economic performance. With the release of the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, the reserve has been reduced to $1.0 billion. The remaining reserve can be used to safeguard against any events and uncertainty that may arise, or can be eliminated if not needed as part of year-end projections, supporting the government’s ability to protect the fiscal plan and uphold prudent financial management.

In addition, the Contingency Fund is maintained to help mitigate expense risks—for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised, or in case of unforeseen events which may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance. The remaining balance of the Contingency Fund is $3.8 billion for 2025–26.

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Section B: Ontario’s Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

In the third calendar quarter of 2025, Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.5 per cent, following a 0.7 per cent decrease in the second quarter of 2025. Growth in the third quarter was supported by gains in net trade, as exports edged up and imports declined. The outlook for global growth has remained resilient, despite the impacts of changing trade policies and the associated rise in uncertainty. The International Monetary Fund estimates that global real GDP grew by 3.3 per cent in 2025, and projects real GDP to again increase by 3.3 per cent in 2026. United States real GDP is estimated to have increased by 2.1 per cent in 2025 and is projected to also rise by 2.1 per cent in 2026, according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Ontario’s real GDP rose by an estimated 1.2 per cent in 2025, which is higher than was expected at the time of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Private-sector forecasters, on average, project Ontario’s real GDP to rise by 1.1 per cent in 2026, which is slightly higher than the private-sector average of 1.0 per cent at the time of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

LOGO

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The evolution of United States trade policy remains the most significant risk to Ontario’s economic outlook. Ontario’s significant trading relationship with the U.S. exposes the economy to shifts in U.S. trade policy and related uncertainty. In addition to the direct impacts of trade disruptions, elevated uncertainty can also impact consumer and business spending and investment decisions. Shifting trade policies and elevated geopolitical tensions are a risk to global supply chains and commodity markets. Significant shocks could contribute to a rise in inflation, which could lead to higher interest rates.

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Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances

Table 4

Revenue¹


($ Millions)

	2025–26

	*2025* *Budget*		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Taxation Revenue

Personal Income Tax		57,811		59,268	1,457

Sales Tax		40,073		40,096	23

Corporations Tax		25,980		27,000	1,020

Education Property Tax		5,853		5,905	52

Employer Health Tax		9,466		9,390	(76)

Ontario Health Premium		5,366		5,392	26

Gasoline Tax		1,664		1,705	41

Land Transfer Tax		3,875		3,299	(576)

Tobacco Tax		667		646	(21)

Fuel Tax		522		513	(9)

Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes		388		415	27

Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes		634		564	(70)

Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty		376		385	9

Other Taxes		1,027		994	(33)

		153,702		155,571	1,869

Government of Canada Transfers

Canada Health Transfer		21,332		21,393	60

Canada Social Transfer		6,794		6,813	19

Equalization		546		546	–

Infrastructure Programs		1,055		1,055	–

Labour Market Programs		923		923	–

Social Housing Agreement		133		133	–

Other Federal Payments		7,554		7,704	150

Direct Transfers to Broader Public Sector Organizations		509		509	–

		38,846		39,076	230

Income from Government Business Enterprises

Liquor Control Board of Ontario		1,851		1,851	–

Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd.		1,599		2,187	588

Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation		2,405		2,412	7

Ontario Cannabis Store		215		225	10

iGaming Ontario		247		253	6

		6,317		6,928	611
continued...

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Table 4 (continued)

Revenue¹

($ Millions)


	2025–26
	2025 Budget		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Other Non-Tax Revenue

Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges		10,852		11,852	1,000

Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees		1,242		1,242	–

Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue		1,710		1,710	–

Other Fees and Licences		1,874		1,874	(0)

Sales and Rentals		1,964		1,964	–

Reimbursements		1,074		1,076	2

Royalties		309		309	–

Power Supply Contract Recoveries		44		44	–

Interest and Investment Income		1,953		2,037	84

		21,022		22,108	1,086

Total Revenue		219,887		223,682	3,795

Beginning in the 2025 Budget, the Total Revenue, Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD), and Total Expense figures for all years have been restated to report interest and investment income as part of revenue and separate from IOD. These changes are fiscally neutral.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Table 5

Total Expense¹

($ Millions)



	2025–26

Ministry Expense	*2025 Budget*		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (Base)		474.9		478.2	3.3

Demand-Driven Risk Management and Time-Limited Programs		575.3		575.3	–

Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (Total)		1,050.1		1,053.4	3.3

Attorney General (Base)		2,274.4		2,274.4	–

Bad Debt Expense		5.3		5.3	–

Attorney General (Total)		2,279.7		2,279.7	–

Board of Internal Economy (Total)		352.2		352.2	–

Children, Community and Social Services (Total)		20,358.7		20,358.7	–

Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Total)		92.7		92.7	–

Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (Base)		11,462.7		11,462.9	0.2

Student Financial Assistance		1,523.5		2,952.5	1,429.0

Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (Total)		12,986.2		14,415.4	1,429.2

Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Base)		205.8		205.8	–

Tax Credits for Business Investment and Research and Development²		691.6		691.6	–

Time-Limited Investments		1,508.0		1,508.0	–

Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total)		2,405.4		2,405.4	–

Education (Base)		40,987.4		40,987.4	–

Teachers’ Pension Plan		1,733.0		1,733.0	–

Education (Total)		42,720.4		42,720.4	–

Emergency Preparedness and Response (Total)		66.2		216.2	150.0

Energy and Mines (Base)		661.5		661.5	–

Electricity Cost Relief Programs		6,463.0		6,463.0	–

High-Speed Internet		1,734.4		1,734.4	–

Time-Limited Investments		84.1		84.1	–

Energy and Mines (Total)		8,943.0		8,943.0	–

Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total)		1,041.8		1,046.3	4.5

Executive Offices (Total)		79.4		79.4	–

Finance (Base)		1,163.3		1,163.3	–

Investment Management Corporation of Ontario		330.1		330.1	–

Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund		562.5		562.5	–

Temporary and Other Local Assistance		21.1		21.1	–

Power Supply Contract Costs		44.1		44.1	–

Time-Limited Investments		52.5		52.5	–

Finance (Total)		2,173.6		2,173.6	–

Francophone Affairs (Base)		8.7		8.7	–

Time-Limited Investments		2.6		3.6	1.0

Francophone Affairs (Total)		11.3		12.3	1.0

Health (Total)		81,851.6		82,885.4	1,033.8

Indigenous Affairs and First Nations Economic Reconciliation (Total)		144.8		166.3	21.5

Infrastructure (Base)		747.0		747.0	–

Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs		213.6		213.6	–

Waterfront Toronto Revitalization (Port Lands Flood Protection)		32.5		32.5	–

Municipal Infrastructure Program Investments		1,243.9		1,243.9	–

Realty		1,437.6		1,437.6	–

Infrastructure (Total)		3,674.7		3,674.7	–
continued...

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Table 5 (continued)

Total Expense¹

($ Millions)



	2025–26

Ministry Expense	*2025 Budget*		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Base)		160.0		160.0	–

Co-operative Education Tax Credit		102.5		102.5	–

Demand-Driven Employment and Training Programs		1,840.2		1,840.2	–

Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Total)		2,102.7		2,102.7	–

Long-Term Care (Total)³		9,279.3		9,279.3	–

Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base)		798.5		798.5	–

Time-Limited Investments		830.7		830.7	–

Social Housing Agreement—Payments to Service Managers		128.3		128.3	–

Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total)		1,757.4		1,757.4	–

Natural Resources (Base)		740.4		770.4	30.0

Emergency Forest Firefighting		135.0		285.0	150.0

Natural Resources (Total)		875.4		1,055.4	180.0

Northern Economic Development and Growth (Total)		805.2		805.2	–

Public and Business Service Delivery and Procurement (Total)		1,712.3		1,712.3	–

Rural Affairs (Base)		14.3		14.3	–

Time-Limited Investments		5.0		5.0	–

Rural Affairs (Total)		19.3		19.3	–

Seniors and Accessibility (Base)		76.8		76.8	–

Seniors Tax Credits		104.3		104.3	–

Seniors and Accessibility (Total)		181.1		181.1	–

Solicitor General (Total)		4,463.0		4,473.0	10.0

Sport (Base)		62.9		62.9	–

Time-Limited Investments		150.0		150.0	–

Sport (Total)		212.9		212.9	–

Tourism, Culture and Gaming (Base)		869.2		871.4	2.2

Ontario Cultural Media Tax Credits		1,028.4		1,028.4	–

Tourism, Culture and Gaming (Total)		1,897.6		1,899.8	2.2

Transportation (Base)		7,198.6		7,240.6	42.0

Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs		629.9		629.9	–

Transportation (Total)		7,828.6		7,870.6	42.0

Treasury Board Secretariat (Base)		403.9		403.9	–

Employee and Pensioner Benefits		1,528.0		1,528.0	–

Operating Contingency Fund		2,825.0		3,599.6	774.6

Capital Contingency Fund		175.0		153.5	(21.5)

Treasury Board Secretariat (Total)		4,931.9		5,685.0	753.1

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges^{4, 5}		16,198.1		16,177.0	(21.1)

Total Expense⁵		232,496.6		236,106.0	3,609.5

Ministry expenses have been restated for reclassification and program transfer changes. These changes are fiscally neutral.

Includes the estimated cost of tax credit claims for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit, the Ontario Innovation Tax Credit, the Ontario Business-Research Institute Tax Credit and the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC). The OMMITC costs commence in 2023–24 and include costs starting in 2025–26 for the proposed OMMITC enhancement, but not the proposed OMMITC expansion, the impacts of which are reported separately as a revenue decrease.

The Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care total includes expenses incurred by Ontario Health and hospitals for funding for long-term care. These amounts will be consolidated in the total expense of the Ontario Ministry of Health, including $5.7 billion in 2025–26.

⁴

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $1,412 million in 2025–26.

⁵

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Table 6

Infrastructure Expenditures

($ Millions)



	2025–26

	2025 Budget		Current Outlook						Change from *2025 Budget*

Sector	Total Infrastructure Expenditures		Investment in Capital Assets^1,2		Transfers and Other Infrastructure Expenditures³		Total Infrastructure Expenditures		Total Infrastructure Expenditures

Transportation

Transit		10,749		10,871		1,079		11,949	1,200

Provincial Highways		4,259		3,864		395		4,259	–

Other Transportation, Property and Planning		321		177		145		321	–

Health

Hospitals		4,470		4,455		15		4,470	–

Other Health		732		53		680		733	0

Education		4,216		3,957		260		4,216	–

Postsecondary Education

Colleges and Other		708		636		72		708	–

Universities		185		–		185		185	–

Social		644		32		613		644	–

Justice		973		936		37		973	–

Other Sectors⁴		7,778		3,350		4,450		7,800	22

Total Infrastructure Expenditures		35,037		28,330		7,929		36,259	1,222

Less: Other Partner Funding⁵		1,690		1,691		–		1,691	1

Total⁶		33,346		26,639		7,929		34,568	1,222

¹	Includes provincial investment in capital assets of $24.3 billion.

²	Includes $1,412 million in interest capitalized during construction.

³	Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.

⁴	Includes high-speed internet infrastructure, government administration, natural resources, and the culture and tourism industries.

⁵	Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments, primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.

⁶	Includes federal–municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Source: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat.

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Table 7

Five-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics^{1, 2}

($ Millions)



							Actual		Current Outlook

	2021–22		2022–23		2023–24		2024–25		2025–26

Revenue		185,847		194,431		208,975		226,161		223,682

Expense

Programs		170,520		186,364		195,207		212,129		219,929

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges³		13,302		13,935		14,461		15,122		16,177

Total Expense		183,822		200,299		209,668		227,251		236,106

Reserve		–		–		–		–		1,000

Surplus/(Deficit)		2,025		(5,868)		(693)		(1,090)		(13,424)

Net Debt		382,842		399,806		409,761		427,050		459,724

Accumulated Deficit		238,160		246,007		246,101		247,060		260,484

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices		970,146		1,065,260		1,138,592		1,197,020		1,246,922

Primary Household Income		642,144		689,842		740,660		797,253		831,850

Population — July (000s)⁴		14,842		15,156		15,632		16,145		16,258

Net Debt Per Capita (dollars)		25,794		26,380		26,212		26,451		28,276

Household Income Per Capita (dollars)		43,264		45,517		47,380		49,381		51,165

Net Debt as a Per Cent of Operating Revenue		206.8%		207.3%		199.0%		191.2%		207.4%

Net Interest as a Per Cent of Operating Revenue		6.8%		6.4%		5.5%		5.5%		6.4%

Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP		39.5%		37.5%		36.0%		35.7%		36.9%

Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP		24.5%		23.1%		21.6%		20.6%		20.9%

¹	Beginning in the 2025 Budget, the Total Revenue, Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges (IOD), and Total Expense figures for all years have been restated to report interest and investment income as part of revenue and separate from IOD. These changes are fiscally neutral.

²	Actual results for 2023–24 are restated to present an accounting policy change implemented in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2024–25 regarding the calculation of accrued Corporations Tax Revenue.

³	Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $694 million in 2022–23, $978 million in 2023–24, $1,221 million in 2024–25 and $1,412 million in 2025–26.

⁴	Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e., for 2025–26, the population on July 1, 2025 is shown).

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of December 31, 2025.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Section D: Ontario’s 2025–26 Borrowing Program

Table 8

Ontario’s 2025–26 Borrowing Program

($ Billions)


	2025–26
	*2025 Budget*		Current Outlook		Change from *2025 Budget*

Deficit/(Surplus)		14.6		13.4	(1.2)

Provincial Investment in Capital Assets		23.1		24.3	1.2

Amortization of Capital Assets¹		(9.1)		(9.1)	–

Non-Cash and Cash Timing Adjustments		(3.1)		(2.1)	1.0

Net Loans and Investments		1.2		2.4	1.2

Debt Maturities/Redemptions		33.1		33.1	–

Total Funding Requirement		59.8		62.0	2.2

Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing		(5.0)		(5.5)	(0.5)

Increase/(Decrease) in Year-End Cash and Cash Equivalents		(12.0)		(5.6)	6.4

Total Long-Term Borrowing		42.8		50.9	8.1

¹	Starting in the 2025 Budget, Amortization of Capital Assets will be reflected in a separate line in this table to reflect the increasing impact of the capital plan on the borrowing program.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

As of February 5, 2026, Ontario completed $50.9 billion of long-term borrowing in 2025–26 and has begun pre-borrowing for the next fiscal year. Approximately $32.3 billion, or 63 per cent, was completed in Canadian dollars, with the remaining $18.6 billion, or 37 per cent, completed in U.S. dollars, euros and Swiss francs.

Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program and are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather-resilient infrastructure, as well as energy efficiency and conservation projects. Ontario remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, totalling $24.6 billion issued since 2014–15, with $19.85 billion outstanding.

Interest rates have been within the range forecasted in the 2025 Budget and the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. As a result, Ontario’s cost of borrowing for 2025–26 remains unchanged at 4.0 per cent. Ontario is estimated to pay Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges of $16.2 billion, consistent with the 2025 Budget and the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

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2025–26 Long-Term Borrowing

Table 9

2025–26 Long-Term Borrowing

($ Billions)



Canadian Dollar Issues			32.3

Foreign Currency Issues			18.6

Total			50.9

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. As of February 5, 2026.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

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Ministry of Finance		www.ontario.ca/finance

For general inquiries regarding the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, please call or email:


Toll-free English and French inquiries:		1-800-337-7222
Teletypewriter (TTY):		1-800-263-7776
Email:		FinanceCommunications.fin@ontario.ca

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