Allowance for Credit Losses |
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| Allowance for Credit Losses | Allowance for Credit LossesWe maintain an allowance for credit losses for HFI loans held by Fannie Mae and by consolidated Fannie Mae MBS trusts. In addition, we maintain allowances for credit losses on advances of pre-foreclosure costs, accrued interest receivable, guaranty loss reserves, and credit reserves on AFS debt securities.The following table displays changes in single-family and multifamily allowance for credit losses as well as the components of the single-family and multifamily allowance for credit losses.
(1)Consists of allowance for credit losses on advances of pre-foreclosure costs, accrued interest receivable, our guaranty loss reserves, and credit reserves on our AFS debt securities. Pre-foreclosure costs represent advances for property taxes and insurance receivables. Our estimate of credit losses can vary substantially from period to period due to factors such as changes in actual and forecasted home prices, property valuations, and fluctuations in actual and forecasted interest rates. Other drivers include the volume and credit risk profile of our new acquisitions, borrower payment behavior; events such as natural disasters or pandemics; the type, volume and effectiveness of our loss mitigation activities, including forbearances and loan modifications, the volume of completed foreclosures and the volume and pricing of loans redesignated from HFI to HFS. In addition, updates to the models, assumptions, and data used in determining our estimate for credit losses can impact our allowance. Changes in our estimate of credit losses are recognized as “(Provision) benefit for credit losses” in our consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income. Our single-family provision for credit losses in 2025 was primarily driven by current-year loan acquisitions and by loan delinquencies. •Provision for newly acquired loans. The provision for newly acquired loans was largely attributable to our 2025 single-family acquisitions, which primarily consisted of purchase loans. At acquisition, we record expected lifetime credit losses for newly acquired loans, resulting in provision for credit losses. Purchase loans generally have higher original LTV ratios than refinance loans, and as a result, generally carry higher expected lifetime credit losses than refinance loans. •Provision from loan delinquencies. As loans migrate into delinquency status, expected credit losses increase due to higher probabilities of default and greater potential loss severity assumptions. For 2025, provision related to loan delinquencies was primarily driven by loans that became newly delinquent during the year, as well as an increase in the population of loans that were 60 days or more past due, which resulted in higher expected credit losses. Our single-family benefit for credit losses for 2024 was primarily driven by improvements to our longer-term single-family home price forecast, partially offset by provision from the risk profile of newly acquired loans, and provision related to higher mortgage interest rates. •Home price forecast benefit. We recognized a benefit from improvements to our longer-term single-family home price forecast. Higher home prices decrease the likelihood that loans will default and reduce the amount of losses on loans that default, which impacts our estimate of losses and ultimately reduces our loss reserves and provision for credit losses. •Provision for newly acquired loans. The provision for newly acquired loans was primarily driven by the credit risk profile of our 2024 single-family acquisitions, which primarily consisted of purchase loans. •Provision for higher interest rates. We also recognized provision from higher mortgage interest rates. As mortgage rates increase, we expect a decrease in future prepayments on single-family loans. Lower expected prepayments extend the expected life of the loan, which increases our expectation of credit losses. Our multifamily provision for credit losses in 2025 was primarily driven by an increase in delinquencies including provision from seriously delinquent loans that were written down to the net recoverable amount of the loans’ collateral value during the period. These factors were partially offset by a slightly improved long-term forecast of multifamily property net operating income (“NOI”) and property values. Our multifamily provision for credit losses in 2024 was primarily driven by declining multifamily property values, an increase in multifamily loan delinquencies, and provision related to our estimate of losses on loans involving fraud or suspected fraud. These factors were partially offset by an improved long-term forecast of multifamily property NOI. •Provision relating to declining multifamily property values. During 2024, multifamily property values declined, primarily due to elevated interest rates resulting in higher market yield requirements. This decrease in property values led to higher LTV ratios for loans in our multifamily guaranty book of business, which drove higher estimated risk of default and loss severity in the allowance and therefore a higher loan loss provision. •Provision relating to increased delinquencies. Multifamily loan delinquencies increased in 2024, particularly for adjustable-rate conventional loans that became seriously delinquent and were written down to their net recoverable amount, which contributed to the multifamily provision for credit losses. •Provision relating to fraud or suspected fraud. Expected losses relating to multifamily lending transactions involving fraud or suspected fraud further heightened the risk of default and added to our multifamily loan loss provision. •Benefit relating to improved NOI forecast. Our forecast of NOI on multifamily properties improved compared to our prior forecast, which also positively impacted our projection of multifamily property values. This improvement in our NOI forecast was primarily due to a refinement of our forecast assumptions to use the average NOI historical growth rate for a longer period of the forecast.
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