EX-99.6

Exhibit 99.6

LOGO


MINISTRY OF FINANCE

2025–26 First Quarter Finances		August 2025


Contents		The First Quarter Finances report contains information about Ontario’s 2025–26 fiscal outlook primarily as of June 30, 2025.
Introduction	2
A. Ontario’s 2025–26 Fiscal Outlook	3
B. Ontario’s Recent Economic Performance and Outlook	5
C. Details of Ontario’s Finances	7
D. Ontario’s 2025–26 Borrowing Program	14

Highlights

•

Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 per cent in the first calendar quarter of 2025, matching growth in the previous quarter. Real GDP growth in the first quarter was supported by higher exports and household spending.

•

Private-sector expectations for real GDP growth are unchanged for 2025 since the 2025 Budget. Uncertainty related to U.S. trade policy continues to impact the global economic outlook and presents downside risk to the Ontario economy.

•

As of the 2025–26 First Quarter Finances, the province’s 2025–26 deficit is projected to be $14.6 billion, consistent with the outlook published in the 2025 Budget.

•

Total revenues and expenses in the 2025–26 First Quarter Finances are projected to be $219.9 billion and $232.5 billion, respectively, unchanged from the outlook in the 2025 Budget.

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Introduction

Ontario’s economy proved to be resilient in 2024 and continued to grow in early 2025. However, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Uncertainty related to U.S. trade policy continues to impact the global economy. Ontario’s significant trading relationship with the United States presents elevated risks and uncertainty, which is expected to weigh on consumer spending and business investment decisions over the near term.

The 2025 Budget outlined a plan to protect Ontario’s workers, businesses and communities from U.S. tariffs and the economic uncertainty, while maintaining a prudent and responsible approach to public finances. The government’s plan will continue to protect Ontario by fostering the most competitive economy in the G7, and promoting investment, job creation and business growth, while retaining a path to budget balance by 2027–28.

Ontario’s finances are in the strongest position they have been in over a decade, with all four major credit rating agencies—Moody’s, Fitch, Morningstar DBRS and S&P Global—affirming Ontario’s credit rating, and the outlook is stable. This reflects Ontario’s commitment to maintaining its targets for debt sustainability measures, despite the economic and geopolitical uncertainties the province is currently facing.

The government will provide its next economic and fiscal update as part of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, to be released by November 15, 2025.

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Section A: Ontario’s 2025–26 Fiscal Outlook

The province’s 2025–26 deficit is projected to be unchanged from the outlook of $14.6 billion published in the 2025 Budget.

Revenues in 2025–26 are projected to be $219.9 billion, unchanged from the 2025 Budget.

Program expense in 2025–26 is projected to be $216.3 billion, unchanged from the 2025 Budget.

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges in 2025–26 is projected to remain unchanged at $16.2 billion, as forecasted in the 2025 Budget.

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 37.9 per cent in 2025–26, consistent with the forecast in the 2025 Budget.

The 2025 Budget included a $2.0 billion reserve in 2025–26, to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense forecasts. The $2.0 billion reserve has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook. The reserve provides additional prudence in the government’s fiscal framework and is distinct from the Contingency Fund that provides dedicated funding to be allocated in response to emerging needs.

Table 1

2025–26 In-Year Fiscal Performance

($ Millions)

2025 Budget

Current Outlook

In-Year Change

Revenue

219,887

–

Expense

Programs

216,298

–

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges

16,198

–

Total Expense

232,497

–

Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve

(12,609

)

(12,609

)

–

Reserve

2,000

–

Surplus/(Deficit)

(14,609

)

(14,609

)

–

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2025.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Revenue

The 2025–26 revenue outlook is projected to be $219.9 billion, unchanged from the 2025 Budget.

The revenue outlook is based on information available at the end of the first quarter of 2025–26. There are further upside and downside risks that could materially affect the revenue outlook. These include changes to the economic growth outlook, new information on tax assessments based on 2024 and prior-year tax return filings received throughout the summer, and collections. The government will monitor these economic and revenue developments, and will provide further details in future fiscal updates as new information becomes available.

Expense

Total expense is projected to be $232.5 billion, unchanged from the 2025 Budget projection.

Program Expense Update

The 2025–26 total program expense outlook, at $216.3 billion, is on track with the projection in the 2025 Budget. The government continues to manage spending within the fiscal plan.

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges Update

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is projected to be $16.2 billion, unchanged from the forecast in the 2025 Budget.

Fiscal Prudence

The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 requires Ontario’s fiscal plan to incorporate prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense, including those resulting from Ontario’s economic performance. The 2025 Budget included a reserve of $2.0 billion in 2025–26, which has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook.

In addition, the Contingency Fund is maintained to help mitigate expense risks—for example, in cases where health and safety may be compromised, or unforeseen events which may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance. The current balance of the Contingency Fund is $3.0 billion for 2025–26.

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Section B:

Ontario’s Recent Economic Performance and Outlook

In the first calendar quarter of 2025, Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 per cent, matching growth in the previous quarter. Real GDP growth in the first quarter was supported by higher exports and household spending.

Since the release of the 2025 Budget, Ontario’s real GDP growth expectations from private-sector forecasters have, on average, remained little-changed. Private-sector forecasters, on average, project Ontario’s real GDP to rise by 0.9 per cent in 2025, the same rate projected at the time of the 2025 Budget. The private-sector average forecast for 2026 has been revised slightly upward to 1.2 per cent from 1.1 per cent at the time of the 2025 Budget.

The private-sector average forecast for Ontario’s nominal GDP growth for 2025 is 3.2 per cent, unchanged from the projection at the time of the 2025 Budget. The private-sector average forecast for 2026 has risen to 3.3 per cent from 3.1 per cent at the time of the 2025 Budget.

LOGO

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Global economic growth has been resilient, despite elevated uncertainty and shifting U.S. trade policy. The International Monetary Fund projects global real GDP to rise by 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, compared to the projected increases of 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.0 per cent in 2026 at the time of the 2025 Budget.

In the U.S., forecasters anticipate real GDP to increase by 1.4 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from growth projections at the time of the 2025 Budget, according to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators July survey.

Uncertainty related to U.S. trade policy continues to impact the global economic outlook. Ontario’s significant trading relationships with the United States present elevated risks and uncertainty which are expected to weigh on consumer spending and business investment decisions over the near term.

Consumer price inflation in advanced economies has eased from recent highs, although certain price pressures remain persistent. Higher tariffs and potential supply chain disruptions could raise prices and prompt central banks to maintain higher interest rates for longer.

Global conflicts continue to raise risks for key commodity markets, including for energy products and global supply chains.

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Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances

Table 2

Revenue


($ Millions)

	2025–26

	*2025* *Budget*		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Taxation Revenue

Personal Income Tax		57,811		57,811	–

Sales Tax		40,073		40,073	–

Corporations Tax		25,980		25,980	–

Education Property Tax		5,853		5,853	–

Employer Health Tax		9,466		9,466	–

Ontario Health Premium		5,366		5,366	–

Gasoline Tax		1,664		1,664	–

Land Transfer Tax		3,875		3,875	–

Tobacco Tax		667		667	–

Fuel Tax		522		522	–

Beer, Wine and Spirits Taxes		388		388	–

Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes		634		634	–

Ontario Portion of the Federal Cannabis Excise Duty		376		376	–

Other Taxes		1,027		1,027	–

		153,702		153,702	–

Government of Canada

Canada Health Transfer		21,332		21,332	–

Canada Social Transfer		6,794		6,794	–

Equalization		546		546	–

Infrastructure Programs		1,055		1,055	–

Labour Market Programs		923		923	–

Social Housing Agreement		133		133	–

Other Federal Payments		7,554		7,554	–

Direct Transfers to Broader Public Sector Organizations		509		509	–

		38,846		38,846	–

Income from Government Business Enterprises

Liquor Control Board of Ontario		1,851		1,851	–

Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd.		1,599		1,599	–

Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation		2,405		2,405	–

Ontario Cannabis Store		215		215	–

iGaming Ontario		247		247	–

		6,317		6,317	–
continued...

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Table 2 (continued)

Revenue

($ Millions)

2025–26

2025

Budget

Current

Outlook

In-Year

Change

Other Non-Tax Revenue

Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges

10,852

–

Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees

1,242

–

Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue

1,710

–

Other Fees and Licences

1,874

–

Sales and Rentals

1,964

–

Reimbursements

1,074

–

Royalties

309

–

Power Supply Contract Recoveries

–

Interest and Investment Income

1,953

–

21,022

–

Total Revenue

219,887

–

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2025.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Table 3

Total Expense¹

($ Millions)



	2025–26

Ministry Expense	*2025* *Budget*		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (Base)		474.9		474.9	–

Demand-Driven Risk Management and Time-Limited Programs		575.3		575.3	–

Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness (Total)		1,050.1		1,050.1	–

Attorney General (Base)		2,274.4		2,274.4	–

Bad Debt Expense		5.3		5.3	–

Attorney General (Total)		2,279.7		2,279.7	–

Board of Internal Economy (Total)		352.2		352.2	–

Children, Community and Social Services (Total)		20,358.7		20,358.7	–

Citizenship and Multiculturalism (Total)		92.7		92.7	–

Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (Base)		11,462.7		11,462.7	–

Student Financial Assistance		1,523.5		1,523.5	–

Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security (Total)		12,986.2		12,986.2	–

Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Base)		205.8		205.8	–

Tax Credits for Business Investment and Research and Development²		691.6		691.6	–

Time-Limited Investments		1,508.0		1,508.0	–

Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade (Total)		2,405.4		2,405.4	–

Education (Base)		40,987.4		40,987.4	–

Teachers’ Pension Plan		1,733.0		1,733.0	–

Education (Total)		42,720.4		42,720.4	–

Emergency Preparedness and Response (Total)		66.2		66.2	–

Energy and Mines (Base)		661.5		661.5	–

Electricity Cost Relief Programs		6,463.0		6,463.0	–

High-Speed Internet		1,734.4		1,734.4	–

Time-Limited Investments		84.1		84.1	–

Energy and Mines (Total)		8,943.0		8,943.0	–

Environment, Conservation and Parks (Total)		1,041.8		1,041.8	–

Executive Offices (Total)		79.4		79.4	–

Finance (Base)		1,163.3		1,163.3	–

Investment Management Corporation of Ontario		330.1		330.1	–

Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund		562.5		562.5	–

Temporary and Other Local Assistance		21.1		21.1	–

Power Supply Contract Costs		44.1		44.1	–

Time-Limited Investments		52.5		52.5	–

Finance (Total)		2,173.6		2,173.6	–

Francophone Affairs (Base)		8.7		8.7	–

Time-Limited Investments		2.6		2.6	–

Francophone Affairs (Total)		11.3		11.3	–

Health (Total)		81,851.6		81,851.6	–
continued...

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Table 3 (continued)

Total Expense¹

($ Millions)



	2025–26

Ministry Expense	*2025* *Budget*		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Indigenous Affairs and First Nations Economic Reconciliation (Total)		144.8		144.8	–

Infrastructure (Base)		747.0		747.0	–

Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs		213.6		213.6	–

Waterfront Toronto Revitalization (Port Lands Flood Protection)		32.5		32.5	–

Municipal Infrastructure Program Investments		1,243.9		1,243.9	–

Realty		1,437.6		1,437.6	–

Infrastructure (Total)		3,674.7		3,674.7	–

Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Base)		160.0		160.0	–

Co-operative Education Tax Credit		102.5		102.5	–

Demand-Driven Employment and Training Programs		1,840.2		1,840.2	–

Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development (Total)		2,102.7		2,102.7	–

Long-Term Care (Total)³		9,279.3		9,279.3	–

Municipal Affairs and Housing (Base)		798.5		798.5	–

Time-Limited Investments		830.7		830.7	–

Social Housing Agreement – Payments to Service Managers		128.3		128.3	–

Municipal Affairs and Housing (Total)		1,757.4		1,757.4	–

Natural Resources (Base)		740.4		740.4	–

Emergency Forest Firefighting		135.0		135.0	–

Natural Resources (Total)		875.4		875.4	–

Northern Economic Development and Growth (Total)		805.2		805.2	–

Public and Business Service Delivery and Procurement (Total)		1,712.3		1,712.3	–

Rural Affairs (Base)		14.3		14.3	–

Time-Limited Investments		5.0		5.0	–

Rural Affairs (Total)		19.3		19.3	–

Seniors and Accessibility (Base)		76.8		76.8	–

Seniors Tax Credit		104.3		104.3	–

Seniors and Accessibility (Total)		181.1		181.1	–

Solicitor General (Total)		4,463.0		4,463.0	–

Sport (Base)		62.9		62.9	–

Time-Limited Investments		150.0		150.0	–

Sport (Total)		212.9		212.9	–

Tourism, Culture and Gaming (Base)		869.2		869.2	–

Ontario Cultural Media Tax Credits		1,028.4		1,028.4	–

Tourism, Culture and Gaming (Total)		1,897.6		1,897.6	–

Transportation (Base)		7,198.6		7,198.6	–

Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs		629.9		629.9	–

Transportation (Total)		7,828.6		7,828.6	–
continued...

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Table 3 (continued)

Total Expense¹

($ Millions)



	2025–26

Ministry Expense	2025 Budget		Current Outlook		In-Year Change

Treasury Board Secretariat (Base)		403.9		403.9	–

Employee and Pensioner Benefits		1,528.0		1,528.0	–

Operating Contingency Fund		2,825.0		2,825.0	–

Capital Contingency Fund		175.0		175.0	–

Treasury Board Secretariat (Total)		4,931.9		4,931.9	–

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges⁴		16,198.1		16,198.1	–

Total Expense		232,496.6		232,496.6	–

¹	Numbers reflect current ministry structure.

Includes the estimated cost of tax credit claims for the Regional Opportunities Investment Tax Credit, the Ontario Innovation Tax Credit, the Ontario Business-Research Institute Tax Credit and the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC). These costs include impacts for an enhancement to the OMMITC proposed in the 2025 Budget, with costs starting in 2025–26. They do not include an expansion of the OMMITC that was also proposed in the 2025 Budget, with impacts reported separately as a revenue decrease.

³	The Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care total includes expenses incurred by Ontario Health for funding for long-term care. These amounts will be consolidated in the total expense of the Ontario Ministry of Health, including $5.7 billion in 2025–26.

⁴	Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $1,415 million in 2025–26.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2025.

Sources: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Table 4

Infrastructure Expenditures

($ Millions)



	2025–26 Current Outlook						*2025 Budget*		In-Year Change

Sector	Investment in Capital Assets^1,2		Transfers and Other Infrastructure Expenditures³		Total Infrastructure Expenditures		Total Infrastructure Expenditures		Total Infrastructure Expenditures

Transportation

Transit		9,671		1,079		10,749		10,749	–

Provincial Highways		3,864		395		4,259		4,259	–

Other Transportation, Property and Planning		177		145		321		321	–

Health

Hospitals		4,455		15		4,470		4,470	–

Other Health		53		679		732		732	–

Education		3,957		260		4,216		4,216	–

Postsecondary Education

Colleges and Other		636		72		708		708	–

Universities		–		185		185		185	–

Social		32		613		644		644	–

Justice		936		37		973		973	–

Other Sectors⁴		3,323		4,455		7,778		7,778	–

Total Infrastructure Expenditures		27,103		7,934		35,037		35,037	–

Less: Other Partner Funding⁵		1,690		–		1,690		1,690	–

Total⁶		25,412		7,934		33,346		33,346	–

¹	Includes $1,415 million in interest capitalized during construction.

²	Includes provincial investment in capital assets of $23.1 billion.

³	Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.

⁴	Includes high-speed internet infrastructure, government administration, natural resources and culture and tourism industries.

⁵	Other Partner Funding refers to third-party investments, primarily in hospitals, colleges and schools.

⁶	Includes Federal–Municipal contributions to provincial infrastructure investments.

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2025.

Source: Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat.

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Table 5

Five-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

($ Millions)



					Actual		Interim¹		Current Outlook

	2021–22		2022–23		2023–24		2024–25		2025–26

Revenue		185,847		194,431		209,021		221,602		219,887

Expense

Programs		170,520		186,364		195,207		212,374		216,298

Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges²		13,302		13,935		14,461		15,224		16,198

Total Expense		183,822		200,299		209,668		227,598		232,497

Reserve		–		–		–		–		2,000

Surplus/(Deficit)		2,025		(5,868)		(647)		(5,996)		(14,609)

Net Debt		382,842		399,806		407,969		428,125		460,758

Accumulated Deficit		238,160		246,007		244,309		250,305		264,914

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices		970,146		1,061,714		1,119,545		1,178,353		1,214,882

Primary Household Income		642,144		692,033		736,585		791,627		823,292

Population — July (000s)³		14,842		15,141		15,623		16,124		16,348

Net Debt Per Capita (dollars)		25,794		26,405		26,113		26,552		28,184

Household Income Per Capita (dollars)		43,264		45,705		47,147		49,033		50,359

Net Debt as a Per Cent of Operating Revenue		206.8%		207.3%		198.1%		195.4%		211.4%

Net Interest as a Per Cent of Operating Revenue		6.8%		6.4%		5.5%		5.8%		6.5%

Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP		39.5%		37.7%		36.4%		36.3%		37.9%

Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP		24.5%		23.2%		21.8%		21.2%		21.8%

¹	Interim represents the 2025 Budget projection for the 2024–25 fiscal year, updated for the latest available information for GDP, household income and net debt.

²	Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $694 million in 2022–23, $978 million in 2023–24, $1,195 million in 2024–25 and $1,415 million in 2025–26.

³	Population figures are for July 1 of the fiscal year indicated (i.e., for 2025–26, the population on July 1, 2025 is shown).

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Current outlook primarily reflects information available as of June 30, 2025.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Treasury Board Secretariat and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

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Section D: Ontario’s 2025–26 Borrowing Program

Table 6

Ontario’s 2025–26 Borrowing Program

($ Billions)


	2025–26
	*2025 Budget*		Current Outlook		Change from *2025 Budget*

Deficit/(Surplus)		14.6		14.6	–

Provincial Investment in Capital Assets		23.1		23.1	–

Amortization of Capital Assets		(9.1)		(9.1)	–

Non-Cash and Cash Timing Adjustments		(3.1)		(3.1)	–

Net Loans and Investments		1.2		1.2	–

Debt Maturities and Redemptions		33.1		33.1	–

Total Funding Requirement		59.8		59.8	–

Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing		(5.0)		(5.0)	–

Increase/(Decrease) in Year-End Cash and Cash Equivalents		(12.0)		(12.0)	–

Total Long-Term Public Borrowing		42.8		42.8	–

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

Ontario’s current funding requirements and long-term borrowing for 2025–26 are projected to remain unchanged from the forecast in the 2025 Budget.

As of July 31, 2025, Ontario had completed $20.9 billion or 48.9 per cent of its $42.8 billion 2025–26 long-term borrowing program. Approximately $14.3 billion or 68.5 per cent was completed in Canadian dollars, with the remaining $6.6 billion or 31.5 per cent completed primarily in U.S. dollars and euros.

Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program and are an important tool to help finance public transit initiatives, extreme weather-resilient infrastructure, as well as energy efficiency and conservation projects. Ontario remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds, totalling $21.5 billion issued since 2014–15, with $16.8 billion outstanding.

Ontario plans to continue its leadership in the Canadian dollar Green Bond market and, subject to market conditions, will issue multiple Green Bonds each fiscal year, including in 2025–26.

Ontario’s cost of borrowing for 2025–26 remains at 4.0 per cent, as long-term rates have remained within the range forecasted in the 2025 Budget through the first quarter. The province will continue to monitor movements in interest rates and provide regular updates on the Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges expense in future fiscal updates.

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2025–26 Long-Term Borrowing

Table 7

2025–26 Long-Term Borrowing

($ Billions)



Canadian Dollar Issues			14.3

Foreign Currency Issues			6.6

Total			20.9

Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. As of July 31, 2025.

Source: Ontario Financing Authority.

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Ministry of Finance		www.ontario.ca/finance

For general inquiries regarding the 2025–26 First Quarter Finances, please call or email:


Toll-free English and French inquiries:		1-800-337-7222
Teletypewriter (TTY):		1-800-263-7776
Email:		FinanceCommunications.fin@ontario.ca

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