v3.25.2
Outstanding Exposure
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2025
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure [Abstract]  
Outstanding Exposure Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company sells credit protection primarily in financial guaranty insurance form. The Company may also sell credit protection in other forms of insurance or by issuing policies that guarantee payment obligations under credit default swaps (CDS). The Company’s guaranties of CDS are generally structured such that the circumstances giving rise to the Company’s obligation to make loss payments are similar to those for its financial guaranty insurance contracts.

The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views to be investment grade at inception, although on occasion it may underwrite new issuances that it views to be below-investment-grade (BIG), typically as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled exposures. The Company also seeks to acquire portfolios of insurance from financial guarantors that are no longer writing new business by acquiring such companies, providing reinsurance on or novating a portfolio of insurance; in such instances, the Company evaluates the risk characteristics of the target portfolio, which may include some BIG exposures, as a whole in the context of the proposed transaction. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across sector and geography and, in the structured finance portfolio, generally requires subordination or collateral to protect it from loss. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.

Public finance obligations insured by the Company primarily consist of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, healthcare facilities and government office buildings as well as obligations issued by U.S. and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities.

Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on these VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

The Company also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance, and other types of financial guaranties, that are consistent with its risk profile and benefit from its underwriting experience.

Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review of each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-.

The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and generally reflect an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company’s internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance.

The Company monitors its insured portfolio and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual exposures in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the exposure’s credit quality, future loss potential, volatility and sector. More extensive monitoring and intervention are employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. Exposures identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine (i) the probability of a future loss, (ii) the calculation of the expected future loss to be paid, and (iii) whether the Company has paid a claim for which it expects to be reimbursed within one year (liquidity claim) or a claim for which it does not expect to be reimbursed within one year.

Ratings on exposures in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are also reviewed every quarter, although the Company may also review a rating in response to developments impacting a credit when a ratings review is not scheduled. For assumed exposures, the Company may use the ceding company’s credit ratings of transactions where it is impractical for it to assign its own rating.
 
The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories below, which generally represent the following:

BIG 1: Below-investment-grade exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is less than 50%, regardless of whether the Company has or has not paid a liquidity claim.
BIG 2: Below-investment-grade exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is 50% or more, but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid.
BIG 3: Below-investment-grade exposures for which future losses are expected, on a present value basis, and the aggregate probability weighting of scenarios with future losses is 50% or more, and for which claims, other than liquidity claims, have been paid.

For purposes of classifying BIG exposures into one of the three BIG categories, the Company calculates the present value of projected claim payments and recoveries using the pre-tax book yield of the investment portfolio as the applicable discount rate.

As discussed in Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), for financial statement measurement purposes, the Company uses risk-free rates (as determined each quarter) for discounting, rather than the pre-tax book yield of the investment portfolio, to calculate the expected losses to be paid. Expected losses to be paid (recovered) are based on probability weighted scenarios and serve as the basis for the loss reserves reported in accordance with GAAP.

Financial Guaranty Exposure

The Company measures its financial guaranty exposure in terms of (i) gross and net par outstanding and (ii) gross and net debt service.

The Company typically guarantees the payment of debt service when due. Since most of these payments are due in the future, the Company generally uses gross and net par outstanding as a proxy for its financial guaranty exposure. Gross par outstanding generally represents the principal amount of the insured obligation at a point in time. Net par outstanding equals gross par outstanding net of any reinsurance. The Company includes in its par outstanding calculation the impact of any consumer price index inflator to the reporting date as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion to the reporting date. Non-U.S. dollar denominated par outstanding is translated at the spot rate at the end of the reporting period.

The Company has, from time to time, purchased securities that it has insured, and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). Amounts attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities are excluded from par and debt service outstanding, and are instead reported as Loss Mitigation Securities in the investment portfolio. The Company manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of both June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, the Company excluded net par outstanding of $1.2 billion attributable to Loss Mitigation Securities.

Gross debt service outstanding represents the sum of all estimated future debt service payments on the insured obligations, on an undiscounted basis. Net debt service outstanding equals gross debt service outstanding net of any reinsurance. Future debt service payments include the estimated impact of any consumer price index inflator after the reporting date, as well as, in the case of accreting (zero-coupon) obligations, accretion after the reporting date.

The Company calculates its debt service outstanding as follows:

for insured obligations that are not supported by homogeneous pools of assets (which category includes most of the Company’s public finance transactions), as the total estimated contractual future debt service due through maturity, regardless of whether the obligations may be called and regardless of whether, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, the Company believes the obligations will be repaid prior to contractual maturity; and

for insured obligations that are supported by homogeneous pools of assets that are contractually permitted to prepay principal (which category includes, for example, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)), as the total estimated expected future debt service due on insured obligations through their respective expected terms, which
reflects the Company’s expectations as to whether the obligations may be called and, in the case of obligations where principal payments are due when an underlying asset makes a principal payment, when the Company expects principal payments to be made prior to contractual maturity.

The calculation of debt service requires the use of estimates, which the Company updates periodically, including estimates and assumptions for the expected remaining term of insured obligations supported by homogeneous pools of assets, updated interest rates for floating and variable rate insured obligations, behavior of consumer price indices for obligations with consumer price index inflators, foreign exchange rates and other assumptions based on the characteristics of each insured obligation. Debt service is a measure of the estimated maximum potential exposure to insured obligations before considering the Company’s various legal rights to the underlying collateral and other remedies available to it under its financial guaranty contract.

Actual debt service may differ from estimated debt service due to refundings, terminations, negotiated restructurings, prepayments, changes in interest rates on variable rate insured obligations, consumer price index behavior differing from that projected, changes in foreign exchange rates on non-U.S. dollar denominated insured obligations and other factors.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Debt Service and Par Outstanding
As of June 30, 2025 As of December 31, 2024
  GrossNet GrossNet
 (in millions)
Debt Service
Public finance$422,661 $422,587 $403,789 $403,718 
Structured finance12,401 11,975 12,674 12,248 
Total financial guaranty$435,062 $434,562 $416,463 $415,966 
Par Outstanding
Public finance$261,904 $261,848 $250,429 $250,375 
Structured finance11,356 10,930 11,603 11,177 
Total financial guaranty$273,260 $272,778 $262,032 $261,552 

In addition to amounts shown in the table above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide financial guaranties of $2.0 billion of public finance gross par and $2.2 billion of structured finance gross par as of June 30, 2025. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in the financial guaranties and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of June 30, 2025
 Public Finance
U.S.
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
Structured Finance
U.S.
Structured Finance
Non-U.S.
Total
Rating
Category
Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%
 (dollars in millions)
AAA$23 — %$1,966 3.7 %$486 6.0 %$521 18.8 %$2,996 1.1 %
AA17,572 8.5 2,872 5.4 5,314 65.1 67 2.5 25,825 9.5 
A118,435 56.7 12,888 24.3 761 9.3 2,096 75.8 134,180 49.2 
BBB70,136 33.6 28,314 53.3 739 9.0 80 2.9 99,269 36.4 
BIG2,550 1.2 7,092 13.3 866 10.6 — — 10,508 3.8 
Total net par outstanding$208,716 100.0 %$53,132 100.0 %$8,166 100.0 %$2,764 100.0 %$272,778 100.0 %
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
As of December 31, 2024 
 Public Finance
U.S.
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
Structured Finance
U.S.
Structured Finance
Non-U.S.
Total
Rating
Category
Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%Net Par
Outstanding
%
 (dollars in millions)
AAA$25 — %$2,074 4.2 %$512 6.1 %$470 17.3 %$3,081 1.2 %
AA17,664 8.8 2,854 5.8 5,386 63.7 58 2.1 25,962 9.9 
A111,502 55.5 13,046 26.5 952 11.3 2,117 77.7 127,617 48.8 
BBB69,096 34.3 24,828 50.5 707 8.3 79 2.9 94,710 36.2 
BIG2,888 1.4 6,398 13.0 896 10.6 — — 10,182 3.9 
Total net par outstanding$201,175 100.0 %$49,200 100.0 %$8,453 100.0 %$2,724 100.0 %$261,552 100.0 %

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
As of June 30, 2025
 BIG Net Par OutstandingNet Par
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIGOutstanding
   (in millions)  
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$1,410 $471 $669 $2,550 $208,716 
Non-U.S. public finance 4,061 3,031 — 7,092 53,132 
Public finance5,471 3,502 669 9,642 261,848 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS83 29 679 791 1,436 
Other structured finance— 19 56 75 9,494 
Structured finance83 48 735 866 10,930 
Total$5,554 $3,550 $1,404 $10,508 $272,778 

Financial Guaranty Portfolio
Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2024
 BIG Net Par OutstandingNet Par
 BIG 1BIG 2BIG 3Total BIGOutstanding
   (in millions)  
Public finance:
U.S. public finance$2,119 $137 $632 $2,888 $201,175 
Non-U.S. public finance 5,879 519 — 6,398 49,200 
Public finance7,998 656 632 9,286 250,375 
Structured finance:
U.S. RMBS104 29 686 819 1,507 
Other structured finance— 21 56 77 9,670 
Structured finance104 50 742 896 11,177 
Total$8,102 $706 $1,374 $10,182 $261,552 
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks
As of June 30, 2025
 Net Par Outstanding
Number of Risks (2)
DescriptionFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
TotalFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
Total
 (dollars in millions)
BIG 1$5,528 $26 $5,554 91 94 
BIG 23,546 3,550 13 14 
BIG 31,404 — 1,404 98 101 
Total BIG$10,478 $30 $10,508 202 209 

 Financial Guaranty Portfolio
BIG Net Par Outstanding and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2024
 Net Par Outstanding
Number of Risks (2)
DescriptionFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
TotalFinancial
Guaranty
Insurance (1)
Credit
Derivatives
Total
 (dollars in millions)
BIG 1$8,074 $28 $8,102 98 101 
BIG 2702 706 12 13 
BIG 31,374 — 1,374 97 100 
Total BIG$10,150 $32 $10,182 207 214 
_____________________
(1)    Includes FG VIEs.
(2)    A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments

Specialty Business

The Company also guarantees specialty business with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form.

Specialty Business
As of June 30, 2025 As of December 31, 2024
Gross ExposureNet ExposureGross ExposureNet Exposure
(in millions)
Diversified real estate (1)$2,119 $2,119 $2,004 $2,004 
Insurance reserve financings and securitizations 1,513 1,184 1,449 1,126 
Pooled corporate obligations884 884 868 868 
Aircraft residual value insurance147 87 147 87 
____________________
(1)    Excess-of-loss guaranty of a minimum amount of billed rent on a diversified portfolio of real estate properties with an internal rating of AAA that matures in 2044. This guaranty is accounted for in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) 460, Guarantees.

All exposures in the table above are rated investment grade, except for aircraft residual value insurance gross and net exposure of $5 million as of both June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024.
In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, as of June 30, 2025, the Company had outstanding aggregate gross and net aircraft residual value insurance commitments of $90 million and $51 million, respectively. These commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of specified conditions and may expire unused or be cancelled at the request of the respective counterparty. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future covered amounts.