NOTE 7 – RISK

Correlation and Holding Period Risk

Each of the Geared Funds is “geared” which means that each has an investment objective to seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond either to one-half the inverse (-0.5x), two times the inverse (-2x), one and one-half times (1.5x) the return or two times (2x) the return of the Geared Fund’s benchmark (referred to as the “Daily Target”). The Geared Funds do not seek to achieve their Daily Target for any period of time other than a single day (as measured from NAV calculation time to NAV calculation time). The return of a Geared Fund for a period longer than a single day is the result of its return for each day compounded over the period and usually will differ from one-half the inverse (-0.5x), two times the inverse (-2x), one and one-half times (1.5x) the return or two times (2x) the return of the Geared Fund’s benchmark for the same period. This difference may be significant. Compounding is the cumulative effect of applying investment gains and losses and income to the principal amount invested over time. Gains or losses experienced over a given period will increase or reduce the principal amount invested from which the subsequent period’s returns are calculated. The effects of compounding will likely cause the performance of a Geared Fund to differ from the Geared Fund’s stated multiple times the return of its benchmark for the same period. The effect of compounding becomes more pronounced as benchmark volatility and holding period increase. The impact of compounding will impact each shareholder differently depending on the period of time an investment in a Geared Fund is held and the volatility of the benchmark during the holding period of an investment in the Geared Fund.

The return of a Geared Fund for periods longer than a day is the product of a series of daily leveraged returns for each trading day during that period. If you hold Geared Fund shares for any period other than a day, it is important for you to understand the risks and long-term performance of a daily objective fund. You should know that over your holding period:

 

 

 

 

For periods longer than a day, you will lose money if the Benchmark’s performance is flat. It is possible that you will lose money invested in a Short or UltraShort Fund even if the value of the Benchmark falls during that period or money invested in an Ultra Fund even if the value of the Benchmark rises during that period. Returns may move in the opposite direction of the Benchmark during periods of higher Benchmark volatility, low Benchmark returns, or both. In addition, during periods of higher Benchmark volatility, the Benchmark volatility may affect your return as much or more than the return of the Benchmark.

Each Ultra and UltraShort Fund uses leverage and should produce daily returns that are more volatile than that of its benchmark. For example, the daily return of an Ultra with a 1.5x or 2x multiple should be approximately one and one-half or two times as volatile on a daily basis as is the return of a fund with an objective of matching the same benchmark. The daily return of an UltraShort Fund is designed to return two times the inverse (-2x) of the return that would be expected of a fund with an objective of matching the same benchmark. The Geared Funds are not appropriate for all investors and present significant risks not applicable to other types of funds. The Leveraged Funds use leverage and are riskier than similarly benchmarked exchange-traded funds that do not use leverage. An investor should only consider an investment in a Geared Fund if he or she understands the consequences of seeking daily leveraged, daily inverse or daily inverse leveraged investment results. Investors should understand the consequences of holding daily rebalanced funds for periods longer than a given day, including the impact of compounding on fund performance. Shareholders who invest in the Geared Funds should consider actively monitoring and/or periodically rebalancing their investments (which will possibly trigger transaction costs and tax consequences) in light of their investment goals and risk tolerances.

The Matching VIX Funds seek to achieve their stated investment objective over time.

 

While the Funds seek to meet their investment objectives, there is no guarantee they will do so. Factors that may affect a Fund’s ability to meet its investment objective include: (1) the Sponsor’s ability to purchase and sell Financial Instruments in a manner that correlates to a Fund’s objective; (2) an imperfect correlation between the performance of Financial Instruments held by a Fund and the performance of the applicable benchmark; (3) bid-ask spreads on such Financial Instruments; (4) fees, expenses, transaction costs, financing costs associated with the use of Financial Instruments and commission costs; (5) holding or trading instruments in a market that has become illiquid or disrupted; (6) a Fund’s Share prices being rounded to the nearest cent and/or valuation methodology; (7) changes to a benchmark Index that are not disseminated in advance; (8) the need to conform a Fund’s portfolio holdings to comply with investment restrictions or policies or regulatory or tax law requirements; (9) early and unanticipated closings of the markets on which the holdings of a Fund trade, resulting in the inability of the Fund to execute intended portfolio transactions; (10) accounting standards; (11) differences caused by a Fund obtaining exposure to only a representative sample of the components of a benchmark, over weighting or under weighting certain components of a benchmark or obtaining exposure to assets that are not included in a benchmark; (12) large movements of assets into and/or out of a Fund, particularly late in the day; (13) significant and/or rapid increases in the size of the Fund as a result of an increase in creation activity that cause the Fund to approach or reach position or accountability limits or other portfolio limits; and (14) events such as natural disasters (including disease, epidemics and pandemics) that can be highly disruptive to economies, markets and companies including, but not limited to, the Sponsor and third party service providers.

A number of factors may affect a Geared Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with its benchmark, and there can be no guarantee that a Fund will achieve a high degree of correlation. Failure to achieve a high degree of correlation may prevent a Geared Fund from achieving its investment objective. In order to achieve a high degree of correlation with their underlying benchmarks, the Geared Funds seek to rebalance their portfolios daily to keep exposure consistent with their investment objectives. Being materially under- or over-exposed to the benchmark may prevent such Geared Funds from achieving a high degree of correlation with such benchmark. Market disruptions or closure, large amounts of assets into or out of the Geared Funds, regulatory restrictions, extreme market volatility, and other factors will adversely affect such Funds’ ability to adjust exposure to requisite levels. The target amount of portfolio exposure is impacted dynamically by the benchmarks’ movements during each day. The target amount of portfolio exposure is impacted dynamically by a benchmark’s movements, including intraday movements. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Geared Funds will be perfectly exposed (i.e., -0.5x, -2x, 1.5x, or 2x, as applicable) to its benchmark at the end of each day, and the likelihood of being materially under- or over-exposed is higher on days when the benchmark levels are volatile near the close of the trading day.

Each Geared Fund seeks to rebalance its portfolio on a daily basis. The time and manner in which a Geared Fund rebalances its portfolio may vary from day to day depending upon market conditions and other circumstances at the discretion of the Sponsor. If for any reason a Fund is unable to rebalance all or a portion of its portfolio, or if all or a portion of the portfolio is rebalanced incorrectly, the Fund’s investment exposure may not be consistent with the Fund’s investment objective. In these instances, the Fund may have investment exposure to its benchmark that is significantly greater or less than its stated multiple. As a result, the Fund may be more or less exposed to leverage risk than if it had been properly rebalanced and may not achieve its investment objective. Unlike other funds that do not rebalance their portfolios as frequently, each Geared Fund may be subject to increased trading costs associated with daily portfolio rebalancing in order to maintain appropriate exposure to the underlying benchmarks.

Counterparty Risk

Each Fund may use derivatives such as swap agreements and forward contracts (collectively referred to in this Counterparty Risk section as “derivatives”) in the manner described herein as a means to achieve their respective investment objectives. The use of derivatives by a Fund exposes the Fund to counterparty risks.

Derivatives are generally traded in OTC markets and are subject to comprehensive regulation in the United States. Cash-settled forwards are generally regulated as “swaps”, whereas physically settled forwards are generally not subject to regulation (in the case of commodities other than currencies) or subject to the federal securities laws (in the case of securities).

Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act (“Title VII”) created a regulatory regime for derivatives, with the CFTC responsible for the regulation of swaps and the SEC responsible for the regulation of “security-based swaps.” Although some of the SEC requirements have not yet been made effective, the CFTC requirements are largely in place. The CFTC requirements include rules for some of the types of derivatives

 

transactions in which the Funds engages, including mandatory clearing and exchange trading, reporting, and margin for OTC swaps. Title VII also created new categories of regulated market participants, such as “swap dealers,” “security-based swap dealers,” “major swap participants,” and “major security-based swap participants” who are, or will be, subject to significant new capital, registration, recordkeeping, reporting, disclosure, business conduct and other regulatory requirements. The regulatory requirements under Title VII continue to be developed and there may be further modifications that could materially and adversely impact the Funds, the markets in which a Fund trades and the counterparties with which the Fund engages in transactions.

As noted, all of the relevant CFTC rules may not apply to all of the swap agreements and forward contracts entered into by the Funds. Investors, therefore, may not receive the protection of CFTC regulation or the statutory scheme of the Commodity Exchange Act (the “CEA”) in connection with each Fund’s swap agreements or forward contracts. The lack of regulation in these markets could expose investors to significant losses under certain circumstances, including in the event of trading abuses or financial failure by participants.

The Funds will be subject to the credit risk of the counterparties to the derivatives. In the case of cleared derivatives, the Funds will have credit risk to the clearing corporation in a similar manner as the Funds would for futures contracts. In the case of uncleared OTC derivatives, the Funds will be subject to the credit risk of the counterparty to the transaction – typically a single bank or financial institution. As a result, a Fund is subject to increased credit risk with respect to the amount it expects to receive from counterparties to uncleared OTC derivatives entered into as part of that Fund’s principal investment strategy. If a counterparty becomes bankrupt or otherwise fails to perform its obligations due to financial difficulties or otherwise, a Fund could suffer significant losses on these contracts and the value of an investor’s investment in a Fund may decline.

The Funds have sought to mitigate these risks by generally requiring that the counterparties for each Fund agree to post collateral for the benefit of the Fund, marked to market daily, subject to certain minimum thresholds. However, there are no limitations on the percentage of assets each Fund may invest in swap agreements or forward contracts with a particular counterparty. To the extent any such collateral is insufficient or there are delays in accessing the collateral, the Funds will be exposed to counterparty risk as described above, including possible delays in recovering amounts as a result of bankruptcy proceedings. The Funds typically enter into transactions only with major global financial institutions.

OTC derivatives of the type that may be utilized by the Funds are generally less liquid than futures contracts because they are not traded on an exchange, do not have uniform terms and conditions, and are generally entered into based upon the creditworthiness of the parties and the availability of credit support, such as collateral, and in general, are not transferable without the consent of the counterparty. These agreements contain various conditions, events of default, termination events, covenants and representations. The triggering of certain events or the default on certain terms of the agreement could allow a party to terminate a transaction under the agreement and request immediate payment in an amount equal to the net positions owed to the party under the agreement. For example, if the level of the Fund’s benchmark has a dramatic intraday move that would cause a material decline in the Fund’s NAV, the terms of the swap may permit the counterparty to immediately close out the transaction with the Fund. In that event, it may not be possible for the Fund to enter into another swap or to invest in other Financial Instruments necessary to achieve the desired exposure consistent with the Fund’s objective. This, in turn, may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective, particularly if the level of the Fund’s benchmark reverses all or part of its intraday move by the end of the day.

In addition, cleared derivatives benefit from daily mark-to-market and settlement, and segregation and minimum capital requirements applicable to intermediaries. To the extent the Fund enters into cleared swap transactions, the Fund will deposit collateral with a futures commission merchant in cleared swaps customer accounts, which are required by CFTC regulations to be separate from the futures commission merchant’s proprietary collateral posted for cleared swaps transactions. Cleared swap customer collateral is subject to regulations that closely parallel the regulations governing customer segregated funds for futures transactions but provide certain additional protections to cleared swaps collateral in the event of a clearing broker or clearing broker customer default. For example, in the event of a default of both the clearing broker and a customer of the clearing broker, a clearing house is only permitted to access the cleared swaps collateral in the legally separate (but operationally comingled) account of the defaulting cleared swap customer of the clearing broker, as opposed to the treatment of futures customer segregated funds, under which the clearing house may access all of the commingled futures customer segregated funds of a defaulting clearing broker. Derivatives entered into directly between two counterparties do not necessarily benefit from such protections, particularly if entered into with an entity that is not registered as a “swap dealer” with the CFTC. Bilateral OTC derivatives expose the Funds to the risk that a counterparty will not settle a transaction in accordance with its terms and conditions because of a dispute over the terms of the contract (whether or not bona fide) or because of a credit or liquidity problem, thus causing the Funds to suffer a loss.

The Sponsor regularly reviews the performance of its counterparties for, among other things, creditworthiness and execution quality. In addition, the Sponsor periodically considers the addition of new counterparties and the counterparties used by a Fund may change at any time. Each day, the Funds disclose their portfolio holdings as of the prior Business Day. Each Fund’s portfolio holdings identifies its counterparties, as applicable. This portfolio holdings information may be accessed through the web on the Sponsor’s website at www.ProShares.com.

 

Each counterparty and/or any of its affiliates may be an Authorized Participant or shareholder of a Fund, subject to applicable law.

The counterparty risk for cleared derivatives transactions is generally lower than for OTC derivatives. Once a transaction is cleared, the clearing organization is substituted and is a Fund’s counterparty on the derivative. The clearing organization guarantees the performance of the other side of the derivative. Nevertheless, some risk remains, as there is no assurance that the clearing organization, or its members, will satisfy its obligations to a Fund.

Leverage Risk

The Leveraged Funds may utilize leverage in seeking to achieve their respective investment objectives and will lose more money in market environments adverse to their respective daily investment objectives than funds that do not employ leverage. The use of leveraged and/or inverse leveraged positions increases the risk of total loss of an investor’s investment, even over periods as short as a single day.

For example, because the UltraShort Funds and Ultra Funds (except for the Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF which includes a one and one-half times (1.5x) multiplier) include a two times the inverse (-2x), or a two times (2x) multiplier, a single-day movement in the relevant benchmark approaching 50% at any point in the day could result in the total loss or almost total loss of an investor’s investment if that movement is contrary to the investment objective of the Fund in which an investor has invested, even if such Fund’s benchmark subsequently moves in an opposite direction, eliminating all or a portion of the movement. This would be the case with downward single-day or intraday movements in the underlying benchmark of an Ultra Fund or upward single-day or intraday movements in the benchmark of an UltraShort Fund, even if the underlying benchmark maintains a level greater than zero at all times.

Liquidity Risk

Financial Instruments cannot always be liquidated at the desired price. It is difficult to execute a trade at a specific price when there is a relatively small volume of buy and sell orders in a market. A market disruption can also make it difficult to liquidate a position or find a swap or forward contract counterparty at a reasonable cost. Market illiquidity may cause losses for the Funds. The large size of the positions which the Funds may acquire increases the risk of illiquidity by both making their positions more difficult to liquidate and increasing the losses incurred while trying to do so. Any type of disruption or illiquidity will potentially be exacerbated due to the fact that the Funds will typically invest in Financial Instruments related to one benchmark, which in many cases is highly concentrated.

“Contango” and “Backwardation” Risk

In Funds that hold futures contracts, as the futures contracts near expiration, they are generally replaced by contracts that have a later expiration. Thus, for example, a contract purchased and held in November 2022 may specify a January 2023 expiration. As that contract nears expiration, it may be replaced by selling the January 2023 contract and purchasing the contract expiring in March 2023. This process is referred to as “rolling.” Rolling may have a positive or negative impact on performance. For example, historically, the prices of certain types of futures contracts have frequently been higher for contracts with shorter-term expirations than for contracts with longer-term expirations, which is referred to as “backwardation.” In these circumstances, absent other factors, the sale of the January 2023 contract would take place at a price that is higher than the price at which the March 2023 contract is purchased, thereby creating a gain in connection with rolling. While certain types of futures contracts have historically exhibited consistent periods of backwardation, backwardation will likely not exist in these markets at all times. The presence of contango (where prices of contracts are higher in the distant delivery months than in the nearer delivery months due to the costs of long-term storage of a physical commodity prior to delivery or other factors) in certain futures contracts at the time of rolling would be expected to adversely affect an Ultra Fund or a Matching VIX Fund that invests in such futures, and positively affect a Short Fund or an UltraShort Fund that invests in such futures. Similarly, the presence of backwardation in certain futures contracts at the time of rolling such contracts would be expected to adversely affect the Short Fund and UltraShort Funds, and positively affect the Ultra Funds and Matching VIX Funds.

Since the introduction of VIX futures contracts, there have frequently been periods where VIX futures prices reflect higher expected volatility levels further out in time. This can result in a loss from “rolling” the VIX futures to maintain the constant weighted average maturity of the applicable VIX Futures Index. Losses from exchanging a lower priced VIX future for a higher priced longer-term future in the rolling process would adversely affect the value of each VIX Futures Index and, accordingly, decrease the return of the Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF and the Matching VIX Funds.

 

Gold and silver have historically exhibited persistent “contango” markets rather than backwardation. Natural gas, like crude oil, moves in and out of backwardation and contango but historically has been in contango most commonly.

There have been times where WTI crude oil futures contracts experience “extraordinary contango or extraordinary backwardation”. For example, in April 2020, the market for crude oil futures contracts experienced a period of “extraordinary contango” that resulted in a negative price in the May 2020 WTI crude oil futures contract. In the summer of 2022, the market for crude oil futures contracts experienced a period of extreme backwardation, but normalized towards the end of the year. The futures contracts held by the Funds may experience a period of extraordinary contango or backwardation in the future. If all or a significant portion of the futures contracts held by an Ultra Fund at a future date were to reach a negative price, investors in such Fund could lose their entire investment. Conversely, investors in an UltraShort Fund could suffer significant losses or lose their entire investment if prices reversed or were subject to extraordinary backwardation. The effects of rolling futures contracts under extraordinary contango or backwardation market conditions generally are more exaggerated than rolling futures contracts under more typical contango or backwardation market conditions. Either scenario may result in significant losses.

Investments in futures contracts are subject to current position limits and accountability levels established by the exchanges. Accordingly, the Sponsor and the Funds may be required to reduce the size of outstanding positions or be restricted from entering into new positions that would otherwise be taken for a Fund or not trade in certain markets on behalf of the Fund in order to comply with those limits or any future limits. These restrictions, if implemented, could limit the ability of each Fund to invest in additional futures contracts, add to existing positions in the desired amount, or create additional Creation Units and could otherwise have a significant negative impact on Fund operations and performance, decreasing a Fund’s correlation to the performance of its benchmark, and otherwise preventing a Fund from achieving its investment objective. On May 4, 2020, CME imposed a more restrictive position limit in September 2020 WTI oil futures contracts with respect to the Oil Funds. In response to CME’s imposition of a more restrictive position limit, global developments, and other factors, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts. In early July 2020, in anticipation of the roll of the Oil Funds’ benchmark, and in order to help manage the impact of recent extraordinary conditions and volatility in the markets for crude oil and related Financial Instruments, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts.

Natural Disasters and Public Health Disruptions, May Have a Significant Negative Impact on the Performance of Each Fund.

Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including public health disruptions, pandemics and epidemics (for example, the COVID-19 pandemic), have been and may continue to be highly disruptive to economies and markets. These conditions have led, and could lead, to increased or extreme market volatility, illiquidity and significant market losses. Such natural disaster and health crises could exacerbate political, social, and economic risks, and result in significant breakdowns, delays, shutdowns, social isolation, civil unrest, periods of high unemployment, shortages in and disruptions to the medical care and consumer goods and services industries, and other disruptions to important global, local and regional supply chains affected, with potential corresponding results on the operating performance of the Funds and their investments. Further, such events can be highly disruptive to economies and markets, significantly disrupt the operations of individual companies (including, but not limited to, the Funds, the Funds’ Sponsor and third party service providers), sectors, industries, markets, securities and commodity exchanges, currencies, interest and inflation rates, credit ratings, investor sentiment, and other factors affecting the value of the Funds’ investments. These factors can cause extreme market volatility, illiquidity, exchange trading suspensions and market closures. For example, market factors may adversely affect the price and liquidity of the Funds’ investments and potentially increase margins and collateral requirements in ways that have a significant negative impact on Fund performance or make it difficult, or impossible, for a Fund to achieve its investment objective. Under these circumstances, a Fund could have difficulty finding counterparties to transactions, entering or exiting positions at favorable prices and could incur significant losses. Further, Fund counterparties may close out positions with the Funds without notice, at unfavorable times or unfavorable prices, or may choose to transaction on a more limited basis (or not at all). In such cases, it may be difficult or impossible for a Fund to achieve the desired investment exposure with its investment objective. These conditions also can impact the ability of the Funds to complete creation and redemption transactions and disrupt Fund trading in the secondary market.

Additionally, geopolitical conflict, including, war and armed conflicts (such as Russia’s continued military actions against Ukraine that started in February 2022, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Houthi movement’s attacks on marine vessels in the Red Sea, and the expansion of such conflicts in surrounding areas), sanctions, tariffs, the imposition of exchange controls or other cross-border trade barriers, changes in U.S. government policy or agency staffing or agency reorganizations, acts of terrorism, sustained elevated inflation, supply chain issues or other events could have a significant negative impact on global financial markets and economies. A widespread crisis may also affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the current time. How long such events will last and whether they will continue or recur cannot be predicted. Impacts from these events could have significant impact on a Fund’s performance, and the value of an investment in the Fund may decline significantly.

 

Risks Related to Trade Disputes May Negatively Affect Each Fund.

Global economies are interdependent and may be adversely affected by trade disputes with key trading partners and escalating tariffs imposed on goods and services produced by such countries. To the extent a country engages in retaliatory tariffs, a company that relies on imported parts to produce its own goods may experience increased costs of production or reduced profitability, which may affect consumers, investors and the domestic economy. Trade disputes and retaliatory actions may include embargoes and other trade limitations, which may trigger a significant reduction in international trade and impact the global economy. Trade disputes may also lead to increased currency exchange rate volatility, which can adversely affect the prices of the Fund securities valued in U.S. dollars. The potential threat of trade disputes may also negatively affect investor confidence in the markets generally and investment growth.

Risks of Government Regulation

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) issued a notice on March 8, 2022 seeking comment on measures that could prevent or restrict investors from buying a broad range of public securities designated as “complex products”—which could include the leveraged and inverse leveraged funds offered by ProShares. The ultimate impact, if any, of these measures remains unclear. However, if regulations are adopted, they could, among other things, prevent or restrict investors’ ability to buy Shares in the Funds.