v3.25.2
Risk management (Tables)
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2025
Risk Management [Abstract]  
Gross carrying amount per IFRS 9 stage and rating class
Gross carrying amount per IFRS 9 stage and rating class (*)1
in EUR million12-month ECL (Stage 1)Lifetime ECL not credit impaired (Stage 2)Lifetime ECL credit impaired (Stage 3)Total
Rating classGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisions
30 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 202430 June 202531 December 2024
Investment grade1 (AAA)89,188  79,076  1  1  191  281              89,379  79,357  1  1  
2-4 (AA)145,150  140,671  12  10  1,894  1,579  1  1          147,043  142,250  13  11  
5-7 (A)265,263  244,241  27  22  6,323  6,908  8  8          271,586  251,149  34  29  
8-10 (BBB)317,743  310,324  66  55  20,122  24,683  47  55          337,865  335,008  113  110  
Non-investment grade11-13 (BB)159,671  154,348  197  190  18,158  18,479  100  91          177,828  172,827  297  281  
14-16 (B)25,725  25,377  128  124  19,569  17,433  399  366          45,294  42,811  527  490  
17 (CCC)666  905  8  8  4,637  3,992  214  173          5,304  4,897  222  181  
Performing Restructuring18 (CC)        4,471  4,059  268  233          4,471  4,060  268  233  
19 (C)        2,232  2,474  210  203          2,232  2,474  210  203  
Non-performing loans20-22 (D)                12,932  13,742  4,259  4,509  12,932  13,742  4,259  4,509  
Total1,003,405  954,943  439  409  77,596  79,888  1,247  1,130  12,932  13,742  4,259  4,509  1,093,934  1,048,574  5,945  6,049  
1    Stage 3 lifetime credit impaired provision includes €21 million (31 December 2024: €21 million) on purchased or originated credit impaired.
Changes in loan loss provisions and gross carrying amounts
Changes in gross carrying amounts and loan loss provisions (*)1, 2
in EUR million12-month ECL (Stage 1)Lifetime ECL not credit impaired (Stage 2)Lifetime ECL credit impaired (Stage 3)Total12-month ECL (Stage 1)Lifetime ECL not credit impaired (Stage 2)Lifetime ECL credit impaired (Stage 3)Total
Gross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisionsGross carrying amountProvisions
30 June 202531 December 2024
Opening balance as at 1 January954,94340979,8881,13013,7424,5091,048,5746,049937,63351775,4541,43511,9563,8871,025,0435,839
Transfer into 12-month ECL (Stage 1)16,78315-16,655-132-128-230-14120,48622-20,236-195-249-340-207
Transfer into lifetime ECL not credit impaired (Stage 2)-24,349-3625,053358-703-720250-43,155-4943,900429-745-960285
Transfer into lifetime ECL credit impaired (Stage 3)-980-7-1,305-1072,2865620448-2,980-18-2,856-2355,8361,80201,548
Net remeasurement of loan loss provisions0-708501372150-1810-13701850-133
New financial assets originated or purchased134,9661190001134,966120212,5161920000212,516192
Financial assets that have been derecognised-65,485-40-6,435-84-554-121-72,474-245-126,858-76-11,840-153-1,450-257-140,148-485
Net drawdowns and repayments-28,119-3,973-912-33,005-41,7630-4,3930-3090-46,4650
Changes in models/risk parameters0-60170-470-35080-60-220-20
Increase in loan loss provisions39137436612-102-2971,5781,179
Write-offs0000-556-556-556-5560000-1,017-1,017-1,017-1,017
Disposals-510-2-68-2-282-125-860-129-935-1-141-8-279-215-1,355-225
Recoveries of amounts previously written off003030006969
Foreign exchange and other movements16,157-71,092-1840-3517,288-600-50002080203
Closing balance1,003,40543977,5961,24712,9324,2591,093,9345,945954,94340979,8881,13013,7424,5091,048,5746,049
1    Stage 3 lifetime credit impaired provision includes €21 million (31 December 2024:€21 million) on purchased or originated credit impaired.
2    The addition to the loan provision (in the consolidated statement of profit or loss) amounts to €612 million (31 December 2024: €1,194 million) of which €638 million (31 December 2024: €1,170 million) related to IFRS 9 eligible financial assets, €-26 million (31 December 2024: €9 million) related to non-credit replacement guarantees and €0 million (31 December 2024: €15 million) to modification gains and losses on restructured financial assets.
Management Adjustments
Management adjustments to ECL models (*)
in EUR million30 June 202531 December 2024
Commercial Real Estate/ Inflation and interest rate increases32  50  
Economic sector / portfolio based adjustments20  38  
Mortgage portfolio adjustments112  112  
Climate transition risk44  29  
Other Post Model Adjustments29-27
Total management adjustments236203
Sensitivity analysis for credit risk
Sensitivity analysis as at 30 June 2025 (*)
202520262027
Unweighted ECL (€ mln)
Probability-weighting
Reportable ECL (€ mln)1
Netherlands
Upside scenario
Real GDP1.6 2.7 2.9 275 20 %382 
Unemployment3.8 3.5 3.3 
HPI9.8 16.7 5.1 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP1.2 1.1 1.5 352 60 %
Unemployment4.0 4.2 4.2 
HPI7.2 3.8 3.0 
Downside scenarioReal GDP0.6 -1.6 -0.9 581 20 %
Unemployment5.0 6.6 7.8 
HPI3.5 -12.8 0.0 
Germany
Upside scenario
Real GDP0.5 3.1 2.6 577 20 %621 
Unemployment3.3 2.7 2.2 
HPI4.1 8.0 9.6 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP0.0 1.2 1.5 612 60 %
Unemployment3.6 3.4 3.2 
HPI2.9 4.4 6.4 
Downside scenarioReal GDP-0.7 -2.1 -0.4 695 20 %
Unemployment4.2 5.3 5.7 
HPI1.5 -0.4 2.2 
Belgium
Upside scenario
Real GDP1.2 2.4 2.3 540 20 %583 
Unemployment5.4 5.2 5.1 
HPI4.1 4.8 4.4 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP0.9 1.1 1.5 572 60 %
Unemployment5.9 5.8 5.7 
HPI3.4 3.8 3.9 
Downside scenarioReal GDP0.3 -1.2 0.5 658 20 %
Unemployment6.7 7.7 8.1 
HPI2.5 2.1 2.6 
United States
Upside scenario
Real GDP1.7 2.9 3.2 82 20 %126 
Unemployment4.2 3.0 2.5 
HPI4.7 6.3 9.7 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP1.4 1.5 2.0 111 60 %
Unemployment4.5 4.3 4.3 
HPI4.3 3.6 4.4 
Downside scenarioReal GDP0.7 -1.7 -0.9 213 20 %
Unemployment5.3 6.9 7.9 
HPI3.3 -2.6 -2.7 
1Excluding management adjustments.
Sensitivity analysis as at 31 December 2024 (*)
202520262027Unweighted ECL (€ mln)Probability-weighting
Reportable ECL (€ mln)1
Netherlands
Upside scenario
Real GDP2.6 3.0 2.5 193 20 %270 
Unemployment3.5 3.3 3.3 
HPI18.9 11.7 2.5 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP1.5 1.4 1.5 249 60 %
Unemployment4.0 4.1 4.3 
HPI9.1 3.5 2.4 
Downside scenarioReal GDP-0.4 -1.4 -0.2 411 20 %
Unemployment5.7 7.2 8.1 
HPI-3.7 -7.2 2.2 
Germany
Upside scenario
Real GDP2.0 2.8 1.6 510 20 %548 
Unemployment2.9 2.4 2.0 
HPI5.4 8.9 9.9 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP0.5 1.1 1.2 540 60 %
Unemployment3.4 3.3 3.2 
HPI2.6 5.6 6.3 
Downside scenarioReal GDP-1.7 -1.7 0.3 609 20 %
Unemployment4.7 5.6 5.9 
HPI-1.7 1.3 2.2 
Belgium
Upside scenario
Real GDP2.2 2.6 2.1 534 20 %579 
Unemployment5.1 5.0 4.9 
HPI4.8 4.5 4.4 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP1.1 1.5 1.6 569 60 %
Unemployment5.7 5.7 5.6 
HPI3.2 4.1 3.8 
Downside scenarioReal GDP-0.6 -0.2 1.1 654 20 %
Unemployment7.0 8.0 8.0 
HPI1.2 2.9 2.5 
United States
Upside scenario
Real GDP3.1 3.5 3.2 74 20 %113 
Unemployment3.4 2.4 2.3 
HPI4.3 8.4 9.4 
Baseline scenarioReal GDP2.0 2.0 2.0 101 60 %
Unemployment4.2 4.1 4.0 
HPI3.3 3.7 3.9 
Downside scenarioReal GDP-0.1 -1.1 -0.4 187 20 %
Unemployment5.9 7.3 8.0 
HPI-0.7 -3.0 -2.5 
1 Excluding management adjustments.
Reconciliation of model ECL to total ECL
Reconciliation of reportable collective ECL to total ECL (*)
in EUR million30 June 202531 December 2024
Total reportable collective provisions3,162  2,975  
ECL from individually assessed impairments2,547  2,871  
ECL from management adjustments236  203  
Total ECL5,945  6,049  
Asset class category average threshold investment grade
Quantitative SICR thresholds (*)
30 June 202531 December 2024
Average threshold ratioInvestment grade (rating grade 1-10)Non-investment grade (rating grade 11-17)Investment grade (rating grade 1-10)Non-investment grade (rating grade 11-17)
Asset class category
Mortgages2.9 2.4 2.9 2.4 
Consumer lending2.9 2.2 2.8 2.1 
Business lending2.7 2.0 2.7 2.1 
Governments and financial institutions2.9 1.9 2.9 1.9 
Other Wholesale Banking2.7 1.9 2.7 1.9