Allowance for Credit Losses |
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Receivables [Abstract] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Allowance for Credit Losses | Allowance for Credit Losses Allowance and Provision for Credit Losses. The allowance for credit losses—which represents management’s best estimate of lifetime expected credit losses related to various portfolios subject to credit risk, off-balance-sheet credit exposures, and specific borrower relationships—is determined by management through a disciplined credit review process. Northern Trust measures expected credit losses of financial assets with similar risk characteristics on a collective basis. A financial asset is measured individually if it does not share similar risk characteristics with other financial assets and the related allowance is determined through an individual evaluation. Management’s estimates utilized in establishing an appropriate level of allowance for credit losses are not dependent on any single assumption. In determining an appropriate allowance level, management evaluates numerous variables and takes into consideration past events, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. Northern Trust employs multiple scenarios over a reasonable and supportable period (currently two years) to project future conditions. Key variables determined to be relevant for projecting credit losses on the portfolios in scope include macroeconomic factors, such as corporate profits, GDP, unemployment rate, consumer spending, and real estate price indices, as well as financial market factors such as equity prices, volatility and credit spreads. For periods beyond the reasonable and supportable period, Northern Trust reverts to its own historical loss experiences on a straight-line basis over four quarters. The primary forecast in the current quarter reflects an outlook of higher market volatility, slowed growth, and slightly higher unemployment. Recognizing the uncertainty in the primary forecast, an alternative scenario is also considered, which reflects a recession that incorporates the experiences of a wider set of historical economic cycles. The results of the credit reserve estimation methodology are reviewed quarterly by Northern Trust’s Credit Loss Reserve Committee, which receives input from Financial Risk Management, Treasury, Corporate Finance, the Economic Research Department, and each of Northern Trust’s reporting business units. The Credit Loss Reserve Committee determines the probability weights applied to each forecast approved by Northern Trust’s MSDC, and also reviews and approves qualitative adjustments to the collective allowance in line with Northern Trust’s qualitative adjustment framework. Qualitative adjustments as of June 30, 2025, relate primarily to the potential impact of climate-related risks on underlying property values within the CRE and RRE portfolios, potential for higher-than-expected losses on large individual exposures, and increased macroeconomic uncertainty impacting Northern Trust's C&I portfolio. Qualitative adjustments as of December 31, 2024, related primarily to the potential impact of climate-related risks on underlying property values within the CRE and RRE portfolios, a higher likelihood of a recession within the office-related CRE portfolio due to continued concerns around office occupancy rates, and the potential for higher-than-expected losses on large individual exposures. Relative to the quantitative reserve, the qualitative component decreased as of June 30, 2025, compared to December 31, 2024, primarily due to an improved outlook for the CRE portfolio, partially offset by the C&I stress related adjustment introduced in the first quarter. Northern Trust estimates expected credit losses over the contractual term of the financial assets adjusted for prepayments, unless prepayments are not relevant to specific portfolios or sub-portfolios. Extension and renewal options are typically not considered since it is not Northern Trust’s practice to enter into arrangements where the borrower has the unconditional option to renew, or a conditional extension option whereby the conditions are beyond Northern Trust’s control. The Provision for Credit Losses on the consolidated statements of income represents the change in the Allowance for Credit Losses, after consideration of charge-offs and recoveries, on the consolidated balance sheets and is the charge to current period earnings. It represents the amount needed to maintain the Allowance for Credit Losses on the consolidated balance sheets at an appropriate level to absorb lifetime expected credit losses related to financial assets in scope. Actual losses may vary from current estimates and the amount of the Provision for Credit Losses may be either greater or less than actual net charge-offs. The following table provides information regarding changes in the total Allowance for Credit Losses during the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024. TABLE 47: CHANGES IN THE ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES
(1) The table excludes a provision for credit losses of $0.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025 for AFS debt securities. See further detail in Note 4—Securities.
(1) The table excludes a provision for credit losses of $0.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024 for AFS debt securities. See further detail in Note 4—Securities.
(1) The table excludes a negative provision for credit losses of $0.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024 for AFS debt securities. See further detail in Note 4—Securities. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, there was a Provision for Credit Losses of $15.6 million and $16.8 million, respectively, excluding the provision for AFS debt securities. The provision for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, resulted from an increase in specific reserves related to a small number of non-performing loans and an increase in the collective reserve resulting primarily from a worsening macroeconomic outlook, partially offset by sector and portfolio-specific improvements within the CRE portfolio. For the three months ended June 30, 2024, there was a Provision for Credit Losses of $7.9 million, excluding the provision for AFS debt securities, which resulted from an increase in the collective reserve, driven by modest deterioration in credit quality in the C&I portfolio and expectations for weaker CRE prices. For the six months ended June 30, 2024, there was a Provision for Credit Losses of $0.1 million, excluding the negative provision for AFS debt securities, primarily due to an increase in the collective reserves, driven by the C&I and CRE portfolios, partially offset by a decrease in individual reserves, driven by one C&I loan charge-off. The portion of the allowance assigned to loans, HTM debt securities, and other financial assets is presented as a contra asset in Allowance for Credit Losses on the consolidated balance sheets. The portion of the allowance assigned to undrawn loan commitments and standby letters of credit is reported in Other Liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets. For credit exposure and the associated allowance related to fee receivables, please refer to Note 13—Revenue from Contracts with Clients. For information related to the allowance for AFS debt securities, please refer to Note 4—Securities. Allowance for the Loan Portfolio. The following table provides information regarding changes in the Allowance for Credit Losses related to loans, including undrawn loan commitments and standby letters of credit, by segment during the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024. TABLE 48: CHANGES IN THE ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES RELATED TO LOANS
Allowance Related to Credit Exposure Evaluated on a Collective Basis. Expected credit losses are measured on a collective basis as long as the financial assets included in the respective pool share similar risk characteristics. If financial assets are deemed to not share similar risk characteristics, an individual assessment is warranted. The allowance estimation methodology for the collective assessment is based on data representative of the Corporation’s financial asset portfolio from a historical observation period that includes both expansionary and recessionary periods. The estimation methodology and the related qualitative adjustment framework segregate the loan portfolio into segments and classes based on similar risk characteristics or risk monitoring methods. Northern Trust utilizes a quantitative PD/LGD approach for the calculation of its credit allowance on a collective basis. For each of the different parameters, specific credit models or qualitative estimation methodologies for the individual loan classes were developed. For each class, PD and LGD are applied to the exposure at default for each projected quarter to determine the quantitative component of the allowance. The quantitative allowance is then reviewed within a comprehensive qualitative adjustment framework, through which management applies judgment by assessing internal risk factors, potential limitations in the quantitative methodology, and other factors that are not fully contemplated in the forecast to compute an adjustment to the quantitative allowance for each segment and class of the loan portfolio. Allowance Related to Credit Exposure Evaluated on an Individual Basis. The individual allowance is determined through individual evaluations of loans and lending-related commitments that have defaulted, generally those with borrower ratings of 8 and 9. These evaluations are based on expected future cash flows, the value of collateral, and other factors that may impact the borrower’s ability to pay. For defaulted loans for which the amount of allowance, if any, is determined based on the value of the underlying real estate collateral, third-party appraisals are typically obtained and utilized by management. These appraisals are generally less than twelve months old and are subject to adjustments to reflect management’s judgment as to the realizable value of the collateral. The following table provides information regarding the recorded investments in loans and the Allowance for Credit Losses for loans and undrawn loan commitments and standby letters of credit by segment as of June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024. TABLE 49: RECORDED INVESTMENTS IN LOANS
Northern Trust analyzes its exposure to credit losses from both on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet activity using a consistent methodology for the quantitative as well as the qualitative framework. For purposes of estimating the allowance for credit losses for undrawn loan commitments and standby letters of credit, the exposure at default includes an estimated drawdown of unused credit based on credit utilization factors, resulting in a proportionate amount of expected credit losses. Allowance for Held to Maturity Debt Securities Portfolio. The following table provides information regarding changes in the allowance for credit losses for HTM debt securities during the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024. TABLE 50: CHANGES IN THE ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES RELATED TO HELD TO MATURITY DEBT SECURITIES
(1) The allowance for Obligations of States and Political Subdivisions is related to (non pre-refunded) municipal securities that do not fall under Northern Trust’s zero-loss assumption.
(1) The allowance for Obligations of States and Political Subdivisions is related to (non pre-refunded) municipal securities that do not fall under Northern Trust’s zero-loss assumption.
(1) The allowance for Obligations of States and Political Subdivisions is related to (non pre-refunded) municipal securities that do not fall under Northern Trust’s zero-loss assumption. HTM debt securities classified as U.S. government, government sponsored agency, and certain securities classified as obligations of states and political subdivisions are considered to be guarantees of the U.S. government or an agency of the U.S. government and, therefore, an allowance for credit losses is not estimated for such investments as the expected probability of non-payment of the amortized cost basis is zero. HTM debt securities classified as “other” relate to investments purchased by Northern Trust to fulfill its obligations under the CRA. Northern Trust fulfills its obligations under the CRA by making qualified investments for purposes of supporting institutions and programs that benefit low-to-moderate income communities within Northern Trust’s market area. The allowance for CRA investments is assessed using a qualitative estimation approach primarily based on internal historical performance experience and default history of the underlying CRA loans to determine the quantitative allowance. The allowance estimation methodology for all other HTM debt securities is developed using a combination of external and internal data. The estimation methodology groups securities with shared characteristics for which the PD and the LGD are applied to the total exposure at default to determine the quantitative component of the allowance. Allowance for Other Financial Assets. The allowance for Other Financial Assets consists of the allowance for Due from Banks, Other Central Bank Deposits, Interest Bearing Deposits with Banks, and Other Assets. The Other Assets category includes other miscellaneous credit exposures reported in Other Assets on the consolidated balance sheets. The allowance estimation methodology for Other Financial Assets primarily utilizes a similar approach as the one used for the HTM debt securities portfolio. It consists of a combination of externally and internally developed loss data, adjusted for the appropriate contractual term. Northern Trust’s portfolio of Other Financial Assets is composed mostly of institutions within the “1 to 3” internal borrower rating category and is expected to exhibit minimal to modest likelihood of loss. The Allowance for Credit Losses related to Other Financial Assets was $1.1 million and $1.0 million as of June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively. Accrued Interest. Accrued interest balances are reported within Other Assets on the consolidated balance sheets. Northern Trust elected not to measure an allowance for credit losses for accrued interest receivables related to its loan and securities portfolio as its policy is to write-off uncollectible accrued interest receivable balances in a timely manner. Accrued interest is written off by reversing interest income during the period the financial asset is moved from an accrual to a nonaccrual status. The following table provides the amount of accrued interest excluded from the amortized cost basis of the following portfolios. TABLE 51: ACCRUED INTEREST
The amount of accrued interest reversed through interest income for loans was immaterial for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024, and there was no accrued interest reversed through interest income related to any other financial assets for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024.
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