Report of the directors financial review risk report - The Downside scenarios (Details)
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6 Months Ended |
12 Months Ended |
Jun. 30, 2025 |
Dec. 31, 2024 |
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.90%)
|
(1.00%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.20%
|
6.10%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.40%)
|
(4.50%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
1.30%
|
3.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
2.40%
|
5.00%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(1.50%)
|
(0.60%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
5.60%
|
5.30%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.70%)
|
(0.20%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.00%
|
4.50%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
5.20%
|
4.80%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(4.20%)
|
(4.50%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
4.50%
|
5.10%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.90%)
|
(1.90%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
0.90%
|
3.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
5.60%
|
5.20%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Mainland China | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(2.90%)
|
(2.50%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Mainland China | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.70%
|
6.90%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(10.00%)
|
(12.80%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
(2.80%)
|
2.00%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
1.70%
|
3.00%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.60%)
|
(0.60%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
8.80%
|
8.30%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.20%
|
(0.30%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
0.60%
|
2.60%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
0.40%
|
3.20%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(0.20%)
|
0.30%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
3.40%
|
3.40%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(1.00%)
|
(0.40%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
0.80%
|
2.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
5.20%
|
4.80%
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(1.40%)
|
(2.10%)
|
| Consensus Downside scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
4.20%
|
4.10%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.70%
|
2.10%
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.30%
|
7.40%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
10.20%
|
11.50%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(5.50%)
|
(9.10%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UK | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
8.70%
|
8.40%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(26.80%)
|
(27.20%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
(1.90%)
|
10.10%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
1.60%
|
5.50%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(4.20%)
|
(4.10%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | US | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
8.70%
|
9.30%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(14.30%)
|
(15.80%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.30%
|
4.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
5.30%
|
5.50%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(10.80%)
|
(10.10%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Hong Kong | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.70%
|
7.10%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(22.10%)
|
(34.40%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
(1.40%)
|
3.60%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
5.60%
|
5.90%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Mainland China | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.30%)
|
(8.70%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Mainland China | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
6.90%
|
7.10%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(27.70%)
|
(30.50%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
(6.00%)
|
3.80%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
1.40%
|
3.50%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.30%)
|
(7.90%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | France | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
10.80%
|
10.40%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(6.80%)
|
(14.00%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
(0.40%)
|
7.60%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
(0.10%)
|
4.20%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(5.20%)
|
(6.80%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | UAE | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
4.00%
|
5.00%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
(24.40%)
|
(13.20%)
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
0.70%
|
3.70%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
5.30%
|
5.60%
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2025 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| GDP level (%, start-to-trough) |
(9.30%)
|
(10.50%)
|
| Downside 2 scenario allowance for ECL | Mexico | 2026 |
|
|
| Disclosure of financial assets [line items] |
|
|
| Unemployment rate (%, max) |
5.80%
|
5.60%
|
| House price index (%, start-to-trough) |
0.70%
|
2.00%
|
| Inflation rate (YoY % change, max) |
4.40%
|
7.90%
|
| Central bank policy rate (%, min) |
10.60%
|
12.10%
|