The quantitative model as of March 31, 2025 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. At March 31, 2025, the weightings were 75% and 25% for the baseline and downside economic forecasts, respectively. The baseline outlook reflected an economic environment where the unemployment rate increases from 4.1% to 4.4% during the forecast period. Northeast Gross Domestic Product (“GDP’s”) annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) is expected to start the second quarter of 2025 at approximately 5% and decrease to 3.9% before increasing to 4.1% by the end of the forecast period. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included the Federal Reserve cutting rates with two 25 basis point cuts at the September and December meetings, the economy remaining at full employment and continued tapering of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, national unemployment rises from 4.1% in the first quarter of 2025 to a peak of 7.6% in the second quarter of 2026. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of March 31, 2025. Additional qualitative adjustments were made for factors not incorporated in the forecasts or the model, such as loss rate expectations for certain loan pools and recent trends in asset value indices. Additional monitoring for industry concentrations, loan growth and policy exceptions was also conducted.

During the quarter, the Company performed an annual update to its econometric, probability of default (“PD”)/ loss given default (“LGD”) models. Segment specific, multi-variate regression model inputs and assumptions were updated and recent period observed losses and behavior were incorporated into the models (“model refreshment”). The incorporation of recent observations did not have a material impact on most loan class segments except for the Auto class segment which resulted in an improvement in PD/LGD outcomes. The total allowance decreased by approximately 3% as of March 31, 2025 due to the model refreshment.

The quantitative model as of December 31, 2024 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. At December 31, 2024, the weightings were 80% and 20% for the baseline and downside economic forecasts, respectively. The baseline outlook reflected a Northeast unemployment rate environment starting at 4.1% and increasing slightly during the forecast period to 4.2%. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) is expected to start the first quarter of 2025 at approximately 3.8% before decreasing to a low of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2025 and then increasing to 3.9% by the end of the forecast period. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included two 25 basis point federal funds rate cuts in 2025, quantitative tightening ending in early 2025, a post-election fiscal outlook with lower spending, lower taxes, and higher tariffs, and the economy currently being near full employment. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, Northeast unemployment increases to a peak of 7.5% in the first quarter of 2026. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of December 31, 2024. Additional qualitative adjustments were made for factors not incorporated in the forecasts or the model, such as loss rate expectations for certain loan pools, considerations for inflation and recent trends in asset value indices. Additional monitoring for industry concentrations, loan growth and policy exceptions was also conducted.

The Company made a policy election to report AIR in the other assets line item on the consolidated balance sheets. AIR on loans totaled $34.8 million at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024 and with no estimated allowance for credit losses related to AIR as of March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024 as it is excluded from amortized cost.