Loans |
Note 6. Loans Allowance for credit losses The following table provides a reconciliation of the opening balance to the closing balance of the ECL allowance:
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$ millions, as at or for the three months ended |
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Collective provision 12-month ECL performing |
|
|
Collective provision lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
Collective and individual provision lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
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Balance at beginning of period |
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|
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|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
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|
|
|
|
|
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) |
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) |
Changes in model |
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) |
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) |
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– to lifetime ECL performing |
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) |
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– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
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) |
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Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
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Write-offs |
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) |
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) |
Recoveries |
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Interest income on impaired loans |
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) |
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) |
Foreign exchange and other |
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) |
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) |
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) |
Balance at end of period |
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
Balance at beginning of period |
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
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|
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|
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) |
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) |
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) |
Changes in model |
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) |
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) |
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– to lifetime ECL performing |
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) |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
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|
|
|
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|
) |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
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|
|
|
|
) |
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
Write-offs |
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|
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) |
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) |
Recoveries |
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|
Interest income on impaired loans |
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) |
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) |
Foreign exchange and other |
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) |
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) |
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) |
Balance at end of period |
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|
|
|
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|
Balance at beginning of period |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
) |
|
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|
|
|
|
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) |
Changes in model |
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) |
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– to lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
|
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
|
|
|
) |
|
|
|
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Write-offs |
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) |
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) |
Recoveries |
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|
Interest income on impaired loans |
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|
Foreign exchange and other |
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|
Balance at end of period |
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|
Balance at beginning of period |
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
|
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|
|
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) |
|
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) |
|
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|
Changes in model |
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) |
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) |
|
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– to lifetime ECL performing |
|
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) |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
) |
|
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|
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
|
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|
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Write-offs |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
) |
|
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|
) |
Recoveries |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest income on impaired loans |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
) |
|
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|
) |
Foreign exchange and other |
|
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) |
|
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) |
|
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|
|
|
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|
) |
Balance at end of period |
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Loans |
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|
|
|
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|
3,159 |
|
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures (5) |
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(1) |
Transfers represent stage movements of prior period ECL allowances to the current period stage classification. Net remeasurement represents the current period change in ECL allowances for transfers, net write-offs, changes in forecasts of forward-looking information, parameter updates, and partial repayments in the period. |
(2) |
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses for loans and undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures is presented as Provision for (reversal of) credit losses on our interim consolidated statement of income. |
(3) |
Includes the impact of a change in the internal risk rating methodology applied at CIBC Bank USA. |
(4) |
See Note 5 for the ECL allowance on debt securities measured at FVOCI. The table above excludes the ECL allowance on debt securities classified at amortized cost of $14 million as at January 31, 2023 (October 31, 2022: $15 million; January 31, 2022: $12 million), $12 million of which was stage 3 ECL allowance on originated credit-impaired amortized cost debt securities (October 31, 2022: $12 million; January 31, 2022: $10 million). The ECL allowances for other financial assets classified at amortized cost were immaterial as at January 31, 2023, October 31, 2022 and January 31, 2022 and were excluded from the table above. Financial assets other than loans that are classified at amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances. |
(5) |
Included in Other liabilities on our interim consolidated balance sheet. |
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|
$ millions, as at or for the three months ended |
|
2022 Oct. 31 |
|
|
2022 Jan. 31 |
|
|
|
Stage 1 |
|
|
Stage 2 |
|
|
Stage 3 |
|
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|
|
|
Stage 1 |
|
|
Stage 2 |
|
|
Stage 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Collective provision 12-month ECL performing |
|
|
Collective provision lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
Collective and individual provision lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
Total |
|
|
Collective provision 12-month ECL performing |
|
|
Collective provision lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
Collective and individual provision lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance at beginning of period |
|
$ |
55 |
|
|
$ |
70 |
|
|
$ |
159 |
|
|
$ |
284 |
|
|
$ |
59 |
|
|
$ |
63 |
|
|
$ |
158 |
|
|
$ |
280 |
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
(3 |
) |
|
|
(8 |
) |
|
|
(8 |
) |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
(5 |
) |
|
|
(5 |
) |
Changes in model |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
(16 |
) |
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
(19 |
) |
|
|
36 |
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
(17 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
21 |
|
|
|
(20 |
) |
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
(3 |
) |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
– |
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
27 |
|
Write-offs |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(6 |
) |
|
|
(6 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
(4 |
) |
Recoveries |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
Interest income on impaired loans |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(5 |
) |
|
|
(5 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
(4 |
) |
Foreign exchange and other |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
3 |
|
Balance at end of period |
|
$ |
57 |
|
|
$ |
69 |
|
|
$ |
167 |
|
|
$ |
293 |
|
|
$ |
64 |
|
|
$ |
76 |
|
|
$ |
163 |
|
|
$ |
303 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance at beginning of period |
|
$ |
137 |
|
|
$ |
639 |
|
|
$ |
128 |
|
|
$ |
904 |
|
|
$ |
150 |
|
|
$ |
547 |
|
|
$ |
106 |
|
|
$ |
803 |
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
(18 |
) |
|
|
(7 |
) |
|
|
(15 |
) |
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
(12 |
) |
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
(5 |
) |
Changes in model |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
(98 |
) |
|
|
138 |
|
|
|
57 |
|
|
|
97 |
|
|
|
(101 |
) |
|
|
116 |
|
|
|
43 |
|
|
|
58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97 |
|
|
|
(97 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
100 |
|
|
|
(100 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
(11 |
) |
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(10 |
) |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
(3 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(18 |
) |
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(10 |
) |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
– |
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
68 |
|
|
|
82 |
|
|
|
(3 |
) |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
49 |
|
|
|
53 |
|
Write-offs |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(70 |
) |
|
|
(70 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(63 |
) |
|
|
(63 |
) |
Recoveries |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
20 |
|
Interest income on impaired loans |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
(1 |
) |
Foreign exchange and other |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
Balance at end of period |
|
$ |
137 |
|
|
$ |
656 |
|
|
$ |
146 |
|
|
$ |
939 |
|
|
$ |
147 |
|
|
$ |
554 |
|
|
$ |
113 |
|
|
$ |
814 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance at beginning of period |
|
$ |
146 |
|
|
$ |
619 |
|
|
$ |
– |
|
|
$ |
765 |
|
|
$ |
136 |
|
|
$ |
517 |
|
|
$ |
– |
|
|
$ |
653 |
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
(11 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(6 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(10 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(10 |
) |
Changes in model |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
(96 |
) |
|
|
251 |
|
|
|
41 |
|
|
|
196 |
|
|
|
(106 |
) |
|
|
125 |
|
|
|
26 |
|
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
115 |
|
|
|
(115 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
104 |
|
|
|
(104 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
(11 |
) |
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(7 |
) |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(46 |
) |
|
|
46 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(25 |
) |
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
– |
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
90 |
|
|
|
87 |
|
|
|
190 |
|
|
|
(9 |
) |
|
|
(7 |
) |
|
|
51 |
|
|
|
35 |
|
Write-offs |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(115 |
) |
|
|
(115 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(80 |
) |
|
|
(80 |
) |
Recoveries |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
28 |
|
|
|
28 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
29 |
|
|
|
29 |
|
Interest income on impaired loans |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
Foreign exchange and other |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
Balance at end of period |
|
$ |
159 |
|
|
$ |
709 |
|
|
$ |
– |
|
|
$ |
868 |
|
|
$ |
127 |
|
|
$ |
510 |
|
|
$ |
– |
|
|
$ |
637 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance at beginning of period |
|
$ |
239 |
|
|
$ |
454 |
|
|
$ |
356 |
|
|
$ |
1,049 |
|
|
$ |
277 |
|
|
$ |
449 |
|
|
$ |
508 |
|
|
$ |
1,234 |
|
Originations net of repayments and other derecognitions |
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(3 |
) |
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
(6 |
) |
|
|
(8 |
) |
|
|
6 |
|
Changes in model |
|
|
43 |
|
|
|
(6 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
37 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
|
35 |
|
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
55 |
|
|
|
108 |
|
|
|
(66 |
) |
|
|
(13 |
) |
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
(54 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
(9 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
46 |
|
|
|
(44 |
) |
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL performing |
|
|
(14 |
) |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
– to lifetime ECL credit-impaired |
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
(1 |
) |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(2 |
) |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
– |
|
Provision for (reversal of) credit losses (2) |
|
|
83 |
|
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
52 |
|
|
|
153 |
|
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
(52 |
) |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
(40 |
) |
Write-offs |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(75 |
) |
|
|
(75 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(10 |
) |
|
|
(10 |
) |
Recoveries |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
Interest income on impaired loans |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
(4 |
) |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
(3 |
) |
|
|
(3 |
) |
Foreign exchange and other |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
18 |
|
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
18 |
|
Balance at end of period |
|
$ |
335 |
|
|
$ |
490 |
|
|
$ |
351 |
|
|
$ |
1,176 |
|
|
$ |
278 |
|
|
$ |
405 |
|
|
$ |
521 |
|
|
$ |
1,204 |
|
|
|
$ |
688 |
|
|
$ |
1,924 |
|
|
$ |
664 |
|
|
$ |
3,276 |
|
|
$ |
616 |
|
|
$ |
1,545 |
|
|
$ |
797 |
|
|
$ |
2,958 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Loans |
|
$ |
600 |
|
|
$ |
1,809 |
|
|
$ |
664 |
|
|
$ |
3,073 |
|
|
$ |
545 |
|
|
$ |
1,497 |
|
|
$ |
796 |
|
|
$ |
2,838 |
|
Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures (5) |
|
|
88 |
|
|
|
115 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
203 |
|
|
|
71 |
|
|
|
48 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
120 |
|
See previous page for footnote references. |
|
Inputs, assumptions and model techniques Global economic activity is expected to continue to be weak in 2023 and we continue to operate in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. There is inherent uncertainty in estimating the impact that rising interest rates, inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events, will have on the macroeconomic environment. As a result, a heightened level of judgment in estimating ECLs in respect of all these elements as discussed below, continued to be required this quarter. See Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements in our 2022 Annual Report and Note 2 to our interim consolidated financial statements for additional information concerning the significant estimates and credit judgment inherent in the estimation of ECL allowances. The following tables provide the base case, upside case and downside case scenario forecasts for select forward-looking information variables used to estimate our
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Base case |
|
|
Upside case |
|
|
Downside case |
|
As at January 31, 2023 |
|
|
Average value over the next 12 months |
|
|
|
Average value over the remaining forecast period |
|
|
|
Average value over the next 12 months |
|
|
|
Average value over the remaining forecast period |
|
|
|
Average value over the next 12 months |
|
|
|
Average value over the remaining forecast period |
|
Real gross domestic product (GDP) year-over-year growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
United States |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
United States |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth (2) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index year-over-year growth rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canadian household debt service ratio |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Base case |
|
|
Upside case |
|
|
Downside case |
|
As at October 31, 2022 |
|
|
Average value over the next 12 months |
|
|
|
Average value over the remaining forecast period |
|
|
|
Average value over the next 12 months |
|
|
|
Average value over the remaining forecast period |
|
|
|
Average value over the next 12 months |
|
|
|
Average value over the remaining forecast period |
|
Real GDP year-over-year growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.8 |
% |
|
|
1.5 |
% |
|
|
3.9 |
% |
|
|
2.8 |
% |
|
|
(0.6 |
)% |
|
|
1.0 |
% |
United States |
|
|
0.7 |
% |
|
|
1.3 |
% |
|
|
2.9 |
% |
|
|
3.0 |
% |
|
|
(2.1 |
)% |
|
|
0.4 |
% |
Unemployment rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.5 |
% |
|
|
5.9 |
% |
|
|
4.9 |
% |
|
|
5.6 |
% |
|
|
6.0 |
% |
|
|
6.8 |
% |
United States |
|
|
4.0 |
% |
|
|
4.2 |
% |
|
|
3.3 |
% |
|
|
3.3 |
% |
|
|
5.6 |
% |
|
|
5.1 |
% |
Canadian Housing Price Index year-over-year growth (2) |
|
|
(2.5 |
)% |
|
|
1.9 |
% |
|
|
10.1 |
% |
|
|
6.6 |
% |
|
|
(13.1 |
)% |
|
|
(5.2 |
)% |
S&P 500 Index year-over-year growth rate |
|
|
(1.4 |
)% |
|
|
6.0 |
% |
|
|
6.3 |
% |
|
|
12.1 |
% |
|
|
(13.4 |
)% |
|
|
(1.3 |
)% |
Canadian household debt service ratio |
|
|
15.5 |
% |
|
|
15.1 |
% |
|
|
14.4 |
% |
|
|
14.5 |
% |
|
|
15.9 |
% |
|
|
15.2 |
% |
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$) |
|
$ |
92 |
|
|
$ |
81 |
|
|
$ |
119 |
|
|
$ |
107 |
|
|
$ |
76 |
|
|
$ |
56 |
|
(1) |
The remaining forecast period is generally four years. |
(2) |
National-level forward-looking forecasts are presented in the tables above, which represent the aggregation of the provincial-level forecasts used to estimate our ECL. Housing Price Index growth rates are also forecasted at the municipal level in some cases. As a result, the forecasts for individual provinces or municipalities reflected in our ECL will differ from the national forecasts presented above. | As required, the forward-looking information used to estimate ECLs reflects our expectations as at January 31, 2023 and October 31, 2022, respectively, and does not reflect changes in expectation as a result of economic forecasts that may have subsequently emerged. The base case, upside case and downside case amounts shown represent the average value of the forecasts over the respective projection horizons. Our underlying base case projection as at January 31, 2023 is characterized by relatively weak real GDP growth over the projection horizon due to the recently experienced increases in interest rates by central banks in an attempt to ease demand and bring inflation back to target levels, and a modest increase in unemployment rates. Significant judgment continued to be inherent in the forecasting of forward-looking information, including with regard to our base case assumption that interest rates will stay at elevated levels through the remainder of calendar 2023 and then modestly reduce through to the end of 2024, although remaining at higher than pre-pandemic levels. Our base case also assumes that the higher levels of interest rates will result in only modest economic growth, global supply chain and inflationary challenges will ease, governments will respond to future waves of the COVID-19 virus with targeted health measures rather than broader economic closures and that the war in Ukraine will not expand into a broader conflict. We continue to expect that U.S. GDP will experience modest growth over the projection horizon, with a gradual increase in the unemployment rate until the end of calendar 2024. The downside case forecast assumes a recession and higher unemployment rates in Canada driven by a continuing correction in the housing market and lower consumer spending. The downside case forecast for the U.S. also assumes a recession resulting from aggressive interest rate hikes introduced to combat prolonged high levels of inflation. The downside forecasts also reflect slower recoveries thereafter to lower levels of sustained economic activity and unemployment rates persistently above where they stood pre-pandemic. While the upside scenario continues to reflect a better economic environment than the base case forecast, weaker economic growth and higher unemployment rates for both Canada and the U.S. are forecasted over the projection horizon relative to our upside forecast from the prior quarter. As indicated above, forecasting forward-looking information for multiple scenarios and determining the probability weighting of the scenarios involves a high degree of management judgment. Assumptions concerning measures used by governments to combat inflation, the economic risks emanating from the war in Ukraine, and the expectation that severe restrictions will no longer need to be imposed by most governments to limit the impact of potential new variants are material to these forecasts. To address the uncertainties inherent in the current environment, we continue to utilize management overlays with respect to the impact of certain forward-looking information and credit metrics that are not expected to be as indicative of the credit condition of the portfolios as the historical experience in our models would have otherwise suggested, including with respect to the benefit of higher levels of household savings that have accumulated during the pandemic. The use of management overlays requires the application of significant judgment that impacts the amount of ECL allowances recognized. If we were to only use our base case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $247 million lower than the recognized ECL as at January 31, 2023 (October 31, 2022: $248 million). If we were to only use our downside case scenario for the measurement of ECL for our performing loans, our ECL allowance would be $1,158 million higher than the recognized ECL as at January 31, 2023 (October 31, 2022: $847 million). This sensitivity is isolated to the measurement of ECL and therefore did not consider changes in the migration of exposures between stage 1 and stage 2 from the determination of the significant increase in credit risk that would have resulted in a 100% base case scenario or a 100% downside case scenario. As a result, our ECL allowance on performing loans could exceed the amount implied by the 100% downside case scenario from the migration of additional exposures from stage 1 to stage 2. Actual credit losses could differ materially from those reflected in our estimates. The following tables provide the gross carrying amount of loans, and the contractual amounts of undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures based on the application of our 12-month probability of defaults (PD) under IFRS 9 to our risk management PD bands within each respective stage for retail exposures, and based on our internal risk ratings for business and government exposures. Refer to the “Credit risk” section of our 2022 Annual Report for details on the CIBC risk categories.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ millions, as at |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2022 Oct. 31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(2) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage 1 |
|
|
|
Stage 2 |
|
|
|
Stage 3 |
(2) |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– Exceptionally low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
174,749 |
|
|
$ |
140 |
|
|
$ |
– |
|
|
$ |
174,889 |
|
– Very low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
53,795 |
|
|
|
498 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
54,293 |
|
– Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
24,200 |
|
|
|
6,816 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
31,016 |
|
– Medium |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
261 |
|
|
|
4,927 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
5,188 |
|
– High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
906 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
906 |
|
– Default |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
374 |
|
|
|
374 |
|
– Not rated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,604 |
|
|
|
214 |
|
|
|
222 |
|
|
|
3,040 |
|
Gross residential mortgages |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
255,609 |
|
|
|
13,501 |
|
|
|
596 |
|
|
|
269,706 |
|
ECL allowance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
57 |
|
|
|
69 |
|
|
|
167 |
|
|
|
293 |
|
Net residential mortgages |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
255,552 |
|
|
|
13,432 |
|
|
|
429 |
|
|
|
269,413 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– Exceptionally low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18,943 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
18,944 |
|
– Very low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,119 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
6,124 |
|
– Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9,117 |
|
|
|
4,953 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
14,070 |
|
– Medium |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
934 |
|
|
|
3,084 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
4,018 |
|
– High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
266 |
|
|
|
1,089 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
1,355 |
|
– Default |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
175 |
|
|
|
175 |
|
– Not rated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
657 |
|
|
|
34 |
|
|
|
52 |
|
|
|
743 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36,036 |
|
|
|
9,166 |
|
|
|
227 |
|
|
|
45,429 |
|
ECL allowance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
115 |
|
|
|
641 |
|
|
|
146 |
|
|
|
902 |
|
Net personal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35,921 |
|
|
|
8,525 |
|
|
|
81 |
|
|
|
44,527 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– Exceptionally low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,151 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
3,151 |
|
– Very low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1,042 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
1,042 |
|
– Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6,936 |
|
|
|
597 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
7,533 |
|
– Medium |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
992 |
|
|
|
2,927 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
3,919 |
|
– High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
682 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
682 |
|
– Default |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
– Not rated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
145 |
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
152 |
|
Gross credit card |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12,266 |
|
|
|
4,213 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
16,479 |
|
ECL allowance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
143 |
|
|
|
641 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
784 |
|
Net credit card |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12,123 |
|
|
|
3,572 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
15,695 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– Investment grade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
87,184 |
|
|
|
404 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
87,588 |
|
– Non-investment grade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
101,889 |
|
|
|
6,457 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
108,346 |
|
– Watchlist |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
66 |
|
|
|
2,971 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
3,037 |
|
– Default |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
920 |
|
|
|
920 |
|
– Not rated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
208 |
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
225 |
|
Gross business and government (3)(5) (6) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
189,347 |
|
|
|
9,849 |
|
|
|
920 |
|
|
|
200,116 |
|
ECL allowance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
285 |
|
|
|
458 |
|
|
|
351 |
|
|
|
1,094 |
|
Net business and government |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
189,062 |
|
|
|
9,391 |
|
|
|
569 |
|
|
|
199,022 |
|
Total net amount of loans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
492,658 |
|
|
$ |
34,920 |
|
|
$ |
1,079 |
|
|
$ |
528,657 |
|
(1) |
The table excludes debt securities measured at FVOCI, for which ECL allowances of $23 million (October 31, 2022: $24 million) were recognized in AOCI. In addition, the table excludes debt securities classified at amortized cost, for which ECL allowances of $14 million were recognized as at January 31, 2023 (October 31, 2022: $15 million), $12 million of which was stage 3 ECL allowance on originated credit-impaired amortized cost debt securities (October 31, 2022: $12 million). Other financial assets classified at amortized cost were also excluded from the table above as their ECL allowances were immaterial as at January 31, 2023 and October 31, 2022. Financial assets other than loans that are classified a t amortized cost are presented on our interim consolidated balance sheet net of ECL allowances. |
(2) |
Excludes foreclosed assets of $21 million (October 31, 2022: $24 million) which were included in Other assets on our interim consolidated balance sheet. |
(3) |
Includes $ 2 million (October 31, 2022: $ 4 million) of residential mortgages and $772 million (October 31, 2022: $963 million) of business and government loans that are measured and designated at FVTPL. |
( 4 ) |
The internal risk rating grades presented for residential mortgages and certain personal loans do not take into account loan guarantees or insurance issued by the Canadian government (federal or provincial), Canadian government agencies, or private insurers, as the determination of whether a significant increase in credit risk has occurred for these loans is based on relative changes in the loans’ lifetime PD without considering collateral or other credit enhancements. |
( 5 ) |
Includes customers’ liability under acceptances of $11,996 million (October 31, 2022: $11,574 million). |
(6) |
The January 31, 2023 amounts include the impact of a change in the internal risk rating methodology applied at CIBC Bank USA. | Undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2022 Oct. 31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage 1 |
|
|
Stage 2 |
|
|
Stage 3 |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– Exceptionally low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
149,286 |
|
|
$ |
6 |
|
|
$ |
– |
|
|
$ |
149,292 |
|
– Very low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14,461 |
|
|
|
51 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
14,512 |
|
– Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10,844 |
|
|
|
2,412 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
13,256 |
|
– Medium |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
522 |
|
|
|
1,402 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
1,924 |
|
– High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
155 |
|
|
|
682 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
837 |
|
– Default |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
39 |
|
|
|
39 |
|
– Not rated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
484 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
492 |
|
Gross retail |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
175,752 |
|
|
|
4,561 |
|
|
|
39 |
|
|
|
180,352 |
|
ECL allowance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38 |
|
|
|
83 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
121 |
|
Net retail |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
175,714 |
|
|
|
4,478 |
|
|
|
39 |
|
|
|
180,231 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– Investment grade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
119,069 |
|
|
|
121 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
119,190 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
64,446 |
|
|
|
2,540 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
66,986 |
|
– Watch list |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
571 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
586 |
|
– Default |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
69 |
|
|
|
69 |
|
– Not rated |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
575 |
|
|
|
26 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
601 |
|
Gross business and government (1) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
184,105 |
|
|
|
3,258 |
|
|
|
69 |
|
|
|
187,432 |
|
ECL allowance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50 |
|
|
|
32 |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
82 |
|
Net business and government |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
184,055 |
|
|
|
3,226 |
|
|
|
69 |
|
|
|
187,350 |
|
Total net undrawn credit facilities and other off-balance sheet exposures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
359,769 |
|
|
$ |
7,704 |
|
|
$ |
108 |
|
|
$ |
367,581 |
|
(1) |
The January 31, 2023 amounts include the impact of a change in the internal risk rating methodology applied at CIBC Bank USA. |
|